X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

PGA Betting Advice: Sony Open - FRL and Head-To-Head Selections

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover first-round leader bets and head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (76-36-7), netting nearly 44 units of profit and a 68% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 15 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week and will discuss a few first-round leader bets that I believe are returning value to bettors. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

2020 Sony Open

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.

 

First Round Leader Bets

#1 - Abraham Ancer 50/1

Fresh off of a stellar Presidents Cup, Abraham Ancer will look to keep the positive momentum rolling at the Sony Open. Ancer is a low-ball flight player that scores well on par-fours, and his confidence that he brings into the event makes him a dangerous player early in the week.

 

#2 - Brandt Snedeker 50/1

Let's not forget that Brandt Snedeker once put up a 59 to begin the Wyndham Championship in 2018. When you are looking for longshot wagers, it helps to pinpoint aberrational statistics where someone might overperform their expectation level. For Snedeker, that would mean providing a more robust round with his irons to help highlight his pristine putter. If the American can improve on his weakness with his approach game, there is a low round out there to be had.

 

#3 - Lanto Griffin 70/1

With winds expected to gust during the first round, locating golfers that don't generate a ton of APEX on their shots seems like a decent way to approach the board. Griffin ranked 192 out of 193 qualifying players in 2018 in terms of ball flight height, which could help him find birdie opportunities in the gusty conditions.

 

#4 - Scott Piercy 80/1

Living in Las Vegas shouldn't hurt Scott Piercy on Thursday. The American has been known to run hot and cold with his irons, but that isn't necessarily a deterrent when breaking down the slate into just one day. Honolulu's laidback nature fits with Piercy's demeanor, and it isn't a surprise we have seen him play well at Waialae in the past.

 

#5 - Daniel Berger 80/1

After a wrist injury derailed Daniel Berger's closing stretch in 2018, the Florida native struggled to find any rhythm in 2019. A handful of up and down performances ended up being the story of the year for him, but Berger has shown flashes as of late. The 155th-ranked player in the world opened up with a 67 and 66 at the ZOZO Championship in October and was able to do the same at the Shriners Open three weeks earlier. Berger's skills in the wind have been displayed throughout his career, and his past success at Waialae should help him to get off to a fast start.

 

#6 - Charley Hoffman 150/1

It is difficult to know where Charley Hoffman's game is at entering 2020, but the king of the first-round leader bet has a chance to surprise at an event that plays into his strengths. Hoffman has been written off for dead by the general public, but a quick start in windy conditions isn't out of his range of possibilities.

 

#7 - James Hahn 250/1

James Hahn's pricing doesn't directly correlate with his skillset. Hahn has slipped to over 800th in the world because of an elbow injury that kept him out of action for most of 2019, but he returned in the fall to make three of four cuts, including a top-25 at the Houston Open. Hahn's runner-up finish at Waialae in 2018 is promising, and his missed cut here last season should be discounted because it was right around the time his elbow began to flare up in the first place. I'm not so sure the American is ready to win again yet, but a quick start is definitely on the table.

 

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider:

*** Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

 

Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: Scott Piercy is a quality wind player that has shown the propensity to find success at venues that yield birdie opportunities. Add to that the fact that Russell Henley has exhibited an inclination during his career to go through long droughts when things turn the wrong direction for him. I'd have made Piercy closer to -122 for their matchup

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: While Piercy has been steady at the event over his career, his current volatility doesn't far enough outweigh Henley's downside. I believe there is about a 2.5% edge long-term if you can get a clean -110, although books have already started moving Piercy's price to coincide with my projections.

1.10 Units to win 1.00

 

Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz -105

Reasons I Liked the Play: Russell Knox has produced three top-13 results at the event since 2015. Carlos Ortiz, on the other hand, has a 29th and two missed cuts in the same time frame

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: Ortiz's form is not exactly something I want to oppose. Yes, the Mexican golfer has one of the highest chances of missing the cut for me of a player at 80/1 or less, but I also have his winning upside higher than most. I think this is one of the better plays on the board if you are looking to lose your opponent before the weekend, but I am not willing to bet against Ortiz's upside.

1.15 Units to win 1.00

 

Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: Kevin Kisner's course history is being overly baked into his price. Kisner's current form doesn't warrant being in this range, and we have seen a big blow-up day from him consistently over the past month.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: A lack of faith in Abraham Ancer's consistency. Ancer hasn't shown a great deal of success putting on Bermuda greens recently and carries some boom-or-bust potential of his own. I think there is value here, but there is also uncertainty with the Mexican golfer being a better outright wager than head-to-head play.

1.10 Units to win 1.00

 

Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas -185

Reasons I Liked the Play: Webb Simpson is my number one rated golfer this week. I know, how shocking to not have Justin Thomas at the top of my board. That doesn't mean I think Simpson is more likely to win the event than Thomas, but what it does mean is that my power rating on the 12th-ranked golfer in the world has him as a safer head-to-head play if we consider all factors.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: The value might be there with Simpson's +150 price tag, but fading Justin Thomas just isn't something that makes a whole ton of sense when I only release one top play for my premium article. I think the price is right to oppose the American, but this is one of those wagers that helps if you are betting every spot where you find an edge.

1.00 Units to win 1.60

 

Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini -125

Reasons I liked the play: Value grab. Dylan Frittelli's price of +105 places him nearly 15 points below where I have his value. Somewhere between -110 and -115 would be closer to what I find proper, and there is a minute edge being presented to those that seize every advantage they can.

Reasons it didn't make the Premium card: It is essentially a 50/50 wager that features a very small chance we get Rory Sabbatini to miss the cut. That isn't what I am looking for with my head-to-head play of the week.

1.00 Units to win 1.05

 

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (4-1-1)

+2.95 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament

Head-to-Head Bet

Bet

My Picks Finish

Opponent Finish

Result

Total

Sanderson Farms

Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T18 (-11)

MC (+4)

Win

1.00

Safeway Open

Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T7 (-12)

MC (+2)

Win

1.00

Shriners Open

Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

MC (-1)

61 (-9)

Loss

-1.15

Houston Open

Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley

1.12 Units to Win 1.12

MC (+3)

MC (+3)

Push

0

Mayakoba Classic

Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner

1.00 Units to Win 1.10

T48 (-5)

T76 (+1)

Win

1.10

RSM Classic

Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

T10 (-13)

MC (-3)

Win

1.00

 


2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player

Event

Odds

Finish Position

Joaquin Niemann

Sentry TOC

50

5

Dustin Johnson

Sentry TOC

10

7

Xander Schauffele

ZOZO Championship

25

10


Career Record

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP