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PGA Betting Advice: Sony Open - FRL and Head-To-Head Selections

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover first-round leader bets and head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (76-36-7), netting nearly 44 units of profit and a 68% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 15 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week and will discuss a few first-round leader bets that I believe are returning value to bettors. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports.

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2020 Sony Open

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.

 

First Round Leader Bets

#1 - Abraham Ancer 50/1

Fresh off of a stellar Presidents Cup, Abraham Ancer will look to keep the positive momentum rolling at the Sony Open. Ancer is a low-ball flight player that scores well on par-fours, and his confidence that he brings into the event makes him a dangerous player early in the week.

 

#2 - Brandt Snedeker 50/1

Let's not forget that Brandt Snedeker once put up a 59 to begin the Wyndham Championship in 2018. When you are looking for longshot wagers, it helps to pinpoint aberrational statistics where someone might overperform their expectation level. For Snedeker, that would mean providing a more robust round with his irons to help highlight his pristine putter. If the American can improve on his weakness with his approach game, there is a low round out there to be had.

 

#3 - Lanto Griffin 70/1

With winds expected to gust during the first round, locating golfers that don't generate a ton of APEX on their shots seems like a decent way to approach the board. Griffin ranked 192 out of 193 qualifying players in 2018 in terms of ball flight height, which could help him find birdie opportunities in the gusty conditions.

 

#4 - Scott Piercy 80/1

Living in Las Vegas shouldn't hurt Scott Piercy on Thursday. The American has been known to run hot and cold with his irons, but that isn't necessarily a deterrent when breaking down the slate into just one day. Honolulu's laidback nature fits with Piercy's demeanor, and it isn't a surprise we have seen him play well at Waialae in the past.

 

#5 - Daniel Berger 80/1

After a wrist injury derailed Daniel Berger's closing stretch in 2018, the Florida native struggled to find any rhythm in 2019. A handful of up and down performances ended up being the story of the year for him, but Berger has shown flashes as of late. The 155th-ranked player in the world opened up with a 67 and 66 at the ZOZO Championship in October and was able to do the same at the Shriners Open three weeks earlier. Berger's skills in the wind have been displayed throughout his career, and his past success at Waialae should help him to get off to a fast start.

 

#6 - Charley Hoffman 150/1

It is difficult to know where Charley Hoffman's game is at entering 2020, but the king of the first-round leader bet has a chance to surprise at an event that plays into his strengths. Hoffman has been written off for dead by the general public, but a quick start in windy conditions isn't out of his range of possibilities.

 

#7 - James Hahn 250/1

James Hahn's pricing doesn't directly correlate with his skillset. Hahn has slipped to over 800th in the world because of an elbow injury that kept him out of action for most of 2019, but he returned in the fall to make three of four cuts, including a top-25 at the Houston Open. Hahn's runner-up finish at Waialae in 2018 is promising, and his missed cut here last season should be discounted because it was right around the time his elbow began to flare up in the first place. I'm not so sure the American is ready to win again yet, but a quick start is definitely on the table.

 

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider:

*** Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

 

Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: Scott Piercy is a quality wind player that has shown the propensity to find success at venues that yield birdie opportunities. Add to that the fact that Russell Henley has exhibited an inclination during his career to go through long droughts when things turn the wrong direction for him. I'd have made Piercy closer to -122 for their matchup

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: While Piercy has been steady at the event over his career, his current volatility doesn't far enough outweigh Henley's downside. I believe there is about a 2.5% edge long-term if you can get a clean -110, although books have already started moving Piercy's price to coincide with my projections.

1.10 Units to win 1.00

 

Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz -105

Reasons I Liked the Play: Russell Knox has produced three top-13 results at the event since 2015. Carlos Ortiz, on the other hand, has a 29th and two missed cuts in the same time frame

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: Ortiz's form is not exactly something I want to oppose. Yes, the Mexican golfer has one of the highest chances of missing the cut for me of a player at 80/1 or less, but I also have his winning upside higher than most. I think this is one of the better plays on the board if you are looking to lose your opponent before the weekend, but I am not willing to bet against Ortiz's upside.

1.15 Units to win 1.00

 

Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: Kevin Kisner's course history is being overly baked into his price. Kisner's current form doesn't warrant being in this range, and we have seen a big blow-up day from him consistently over the past month.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: A lack of faith in Abraham Ancer's consistency. Ancer hasn't shown a great deal of success putting on Bermuda greens recently and carries some boom-or-bust potential of his own. I think there is value here, but there is also uncertainty with the Mexican golfer being a better outright wager than head-to-head play.

1.10 Units to win 1.00

 

Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas -185

Reasons I Liked the Play: Webb Simpson is my number one rated golfer this week. I know, how shocking to not have Justin Thomas at the top of my board. That doesn't mean I think Simpson is more likely to win the event than Thomas, but what it does mean is that my power rating on the 12th-ranked golfer in the world has him as a safer head-to-head play if we consider all factors.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: The value might be there with Simpson's +150 price tag, but fading Justin Thomas just isn't something that makes a whole ton of sense when I only release one top play for my premium article. I think the price is right to oppose the American, but this is one of those wagers that helps if you are betting every spot where you find an edge.

1.00 Units to win 1.60

 

Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini -125

Reasons I liked the play: Value grab. Dylan Frittelli's price of +105 places him nearly 15 points below where I have his value. Somewhere between -110 and -115 would be closer to what I find proper, and there is a minute edge being presented to those that seize every advantage they can.

Reasons it didn't make the Premium card: It is essentially a 50/50 wager that features a very small chance we get Rory Sabbatini to miss the cut. That isn't what I am looking for with my head-to-head play of the week.

1.00 Units to win 1.05

 

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (4-1-1)

+2.95 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament

Head-to-Head Bet

Bet

My Picks Finish

Opponent Finish

Result

Total

Sanderson Farms

Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T18 (-11)

MC (+4)

Win

1.00

Safeway Open

Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T7 (-12)

MC (+2)

Win

1.00

Shriners Open

Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

MC (-1)

61 (-9)

Loss

-1.15

Houston Open

Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley

1.12 Units to Win 1.12

MC (+3)

MC (+3)

Push

0

Mayakoba Classic

Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner

1.00 Units to Win 1.10

T48 (-5)

T76 (+1)

Win

1.10

RSM Classic

Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

T10 (-13)

MC (-3)

Win

1.00

 


2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player

Event

Odds

Finish Position

Joaquin Niemann

Sentry TOC

50

5

Dustin Johnson

Sentry TOC

10

7

Xander Schauffele

ZOZO Championship

25

10


Career Record

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shohei Ohtani

Will Pitch "Sometime This Weekend"
Jackson Chourio

Absent on Wednesday With Hamstring Cramp
Roman Anthony

Officially Goes on Injured List
Jauan Jennings

Limited on Wednesday, Expected to Play in Week 1
Malik Nabers

Not on Initial Injury Report
Roman Anthony

"High Probability" Roman Anthony Lands on Injured List
Justin Thomas

Making Fourth Ryder Cup Team Appearance at Bethpage
Ben Griffin

Making First Career Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Bryson DeChambeau

Set to be Part of Team USA at Bethpage
Jason Adam

to Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
Roman Anthony

Will Undergo MRI on Wednesday
Santi Aldama

Bags Double-Double in Losing Effort
Guerschon Yabusele

Erupts for 36 Points Against Poland
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Leads Slovenia Into Next Round at EuroBasket
San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Umude Signs Training Camp Deal With Spurs
Reece Beekman

Joins Magic for Training Camp
Justin Minaya

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Magic
Travis Hunter

Jaguars List Travis Hunter as Starting Wide Receiver, Backup Cornerback
Kyle Tucker

Leaves With Calf Tightness on Tuesday
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Rest of EuroBasket
Max Scherzer

Blue Jays Confident Max Scherzer Will Make Saturday Start Despite Back Tightness
Roman Anthony

Leaves Early With Back Injury
Jared McCain

"On Pace" for Training Camp
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Done for the Year With Torn ACL
Luke Hughes

Devils Optimistic About Signing Luke Hughes
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Dylan Holloway

Good to Go for Start of Season
Nick Kurtz

Back in Action on Tuesday
Josh Morrissey

Fully Healthy for Start of Season
Dennis Hildeby

Signs Three-Year Extension With Maple Leafs
Nick Lodolo

Scratched With Illness
Dalton Kincaid

Role Not Expected to Grow?
Quinshon Judkins

Zero Chance Quinshon Judkins Plays Against Bengals?
Najee Harris

Says He's Expecting to Play Against Chiefs
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Departs Monday with Quad Injury
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Stefon Diggs

Expected to Suit Up in Week 1
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket
DJ Moore

Bears Experimenting with DJ Moore in Backfield
Rome Odunze

Could Move All Around the Offense
Carolina Panthers

Dave Canales Comfortable With Panthers' Young Receivers
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering NCAA Return
Dallas Goedert

Healthy for Week 1
Marvin Mims Jr.

Returns to Practice Monday
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Carted Off Monday With Knee Injury
Jason Adam

Diagnosed With Ruptured Left Quadriceps Tendon
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Scratched on Monday
Matthew Stafford

Expected to Start in Week 1
Edward Cabrera

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Sprain
Najee Harris

Cleared for Contact, Could Play in Week 1
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Harry Ford

Called Up for Major-League Debut
Victor Scott II

Activated From Injured List
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Dealing With Hamstring Tightness, Expects to Play Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Agrees to a One-Year Contract with Milwaukee
Kyrie Irving

"Healing Up Great"
Dante Exum

Mavs Agree on a One-Year Deal
Jaylen Warren

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Steelers
De'Von Achane

Practicing Monday, on Track to Play in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Could Report to Browns This Week
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs, Trent McDuffie Not Expected to Finalize Extension
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Dameon Pierce

Ahead of Schedule, Ready for Season
Jordan Love

May Wear Thumb Brace During Season
Matt Chapman

Leaves Early on Sunday, Expects to Play Monday
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington
Dallas Mavericks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain

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