Sneaky Starts, Pivot Plays, and Post-Waiver Pickups for Week 16 - Baker Mayfield, Noah Brown, Tyler Boyd, Hunter Henry, more

Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 16 of the NFL season. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers this upcoming week.

We are so close to the fantasy football championship that I am sure you can taste it! There are still some obstacles in our way though. For one, you have to beat your opponent this week. Not only that, you have to win this week while navigating the holidays and an unusual NFL schedule. 

That’s right, there are two games on Saturday, a full Sunday slate, and then three Christmas Day games on Monday. You will have to pay attention all weekend long, all while trying to open gifts, drink eggnog, avoid the in-laws, whatever your holiday season may look like. 

Now, while you’re all reading this because you are still alive and hunting for that championship, I do want to take a quick second and wish you all a happy holiday! No matter who you choose to celebrate with, I hope you have a great holiday season and of course, hope you win your leagues! 

Quarterback Pivot Options for Fantasy Football

Baker Mayfield brings a safe floor, but lately, he has been showing a higher ceiling as well. Not only has he topped 16 fantasy points in nine of 14 games (64 percent), but he has over 20 in two straight and a season-high 29 last week. He has multiple passing touchdowns in six of his last eight. Now he gets the Jags, who have allowed the fifth-most passing yards, seventh-most touchdowns, and third-most fantasy PPG to QBs. Baker is a top streaming option this week. 

Joe Flacco has scored over 16 fantasy points in all three games with the Browns. He has multiple passing touchdowns in each and has cleared 300 yards in his last two. He threw for 374 yards last week. He is in play against the Texans, who are in the top seven in passing yards both this season and since Week 11. 

Derek Carr is coming off his best fantasy game of the season. He threw for just 218 yards but did throw a season-high three touchdowns. Know that the floor is low, but, he does bring some upside against the Rams, who are in the top six in passing yards and touchdowns allowed since Week 11. They will put up points, meaning that Carr could have to throw more. 

2QB Leagues: Tommy Devito struggled last week in a tough matchup against the Saints, but he continues to show he can add value with his legs. He gets the Eagles, who have allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to QBs. Nick Mullens is another option after throwing more than 300 yards and two scores last week. He faces the Lions, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy PPG to QBs. Will Levis and Zach Wilson were both banged up last week, but are options if they suit up. Wilson has the better matchup against the Commanders and has allowed the most fantasy PPG to QBs. You can pivot to Ryan Tannehill if Levis is out. Taylor Heinicke, Mason Rudolph, and Easton Stick -- in that order -- are fallback options. 

Running Back Pivot Options for Fantasy Football

Jerick McKinnon has averaged 14.4 fantasy PPG in the last two weeks with Isiah Pacheco sidelined. While he is expected to return this week, McKinnon remains in play. His volume is not as secure, but he was still sharing reps with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. McKinnon remains the passing down back for the Chiefs, who love to throw near the goal line. The floor is not as safe, but the upside remains high. 

D'Onta Foreman is a boom-or-bust running back option, but we have seen the Bears rely on him when they are in favorable game script. That is exactly what they could have this week against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the second-most rushing yards all season and the most since Week 11. They’ve given up the most fantasy PPG to RBs. Understand that he could give you less than five, but he is an upside pivot option if you need a plug-and-play RB off the waiver wire. 

Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson would be options if Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss both sit. Taylor did practice on Wednesday, so this is certainly something to monitor, but it is never bad having a backup plan in place. Sermon played 28 snaps compared to 18 for Goodson and out-carried him 17 to 11. Sermon is the preferred play, but both would be flex options if the two starting Colts are out. 

Chase Brown has carved out a role as the secondary back in Cincinnati. Brown has averaged eight carries per game over the last three weeks. He has three targets in each of his last two games. In two of those games, he was held to single-digit fantasy points, and in the other, he scored nearly 20. He is explosive, so he brings upside, but being behind a volume hog like Joe Mixon does make him a boom-or-bust option. Still, there is an upside if you are searching for a pivot option. 

Wide Receiver Pivot Options for Fantasy Football

Noah Brown came through hugely without C.J. Stroud last week, going for 22 fantasy points on eight catches for 82 yards and a score. The Texans' WR1 has been able to produce this season regardless of who it has been. Tank Dell, Nico Collins, and then Brown last week without C.J. Stroud. Both Stroud and Collins are very up in the air right now. If Collins sits, Brown becomes a high-upside option worth taking, even in the tough matchup. If Collins suits up, Brown becomes a more volatile, but still a high-upside play, just with less guaranteed volume. 

Tyler Boyd is a name fantasy managers know very well. But he has not been an option we can plug into our lineup very often this season. But he could see more involvement this week with Ja'Marr Chase sidelined. Jake Browning has averaged 318 passing yards per game the past three weeks and the Bengals have scored more than 25 points in each game. So while the floor may be low for Boyd, the added volume in an offense that has been rolling is enough to have him in play as a pivot option this week. 

Dontayvion Wicks has 13 targets in his last two games combined. He topped 90 yards last week and twice in the last month. He is a field-stretcher so he always brings upside, but that role can be volatile for fantasy purposes. Wicks is a part of the Packers' passing attack, but his role only gets elevated if Christian Watson and Jayden Reed sit. If both sit, Wicks is an upside shot worth taking. If one of them suits up, Wicks still brings upside but becomes more boom-or-bust. If both suit up, you can get away from Wicks. 

Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton are both deeper pivot options this week. The floor may be low, but there is certainly upside there against the Eagles, who have allowed the most fantasy PPG to receivers. They have allowed the second-most yards and third-most touchdowns to slot receivers, so I would trust Robinson more, especially because he will see shorter, safer targets. Slayton is a boom-or-bust option as more of a downfield threat. Philly has allowed the third-most touchdowns to receivers on deep passes. 

Tight End Pivot Options for Fantasy Football

Hunter Henry has scored three touchdowns in his last two games with 19 or more fantasy points in each of those. He seems to be the go-to red zone option for Bailey Zappe. Now, he gets the Broncos, who are in the top two in yards, touchdowns, and fantasy PPG allowed to tight ends. They were torched last week by Sam LaPorta. The floor is low if he does not score a touchdown, but the recent production paired with the matchup has him in play. 

Cade Otton has shown to be a safe floor tight end streaming option. Since Week 7, Otton has scored eight or more fantasy points in six of nine games. Last week, he had just 6.4 fantasy points, but he nearly missed a touchdown and then had to watch Ko Kieft score. Now, he gets the Jags, who have allowed the third-most fantasy PPG to tight ends. He is a streaming option in what could be a high-scoring game. 

Tucker Kraft has been playing well as of late. He has six targets in two of his last three games and a touchdown in two of his last four. He has managed to score over nine fantasy points on just catches and yards in the last two weeks. A touchdown would be the cherry on top of that. He is certainly in play this week if Jayden Reed or Christian Watson -- or both -- sit this week as it only means more opportunities for volume. 

Pat Freiermuth is a fallback streaming option against the Bengals, who have allowed the most yards and second-most fantasy PPG to TEs this season. The Muth had a huge fantasy game before his recent struggles. That came with Kenny Pickett and then he struggled to produce with Mitch Trubisky. With Mason Rudolph starting, perhaps it could add a boost to his fantasy value.

Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.

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