Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Pitchers On The Rise (Week 16)

July 23, 2026

Are these pitchers fantasy baseball breakouts or fake outs? Dan analyzes advanced pitcher statistics and surging fantasy baseball SPs for Week 16 of 2026, including Peter Lambert, Shane Drohan, and Christian Scott.

We've officially hit the point in the baseball season where it feels like I may have written about every notable starting pitcher. So I welcome back Peter Lambert for a part two (part one was way back in April), and offer my thoughts on a few pitchers that I have been wanting to write about for several weeks now: Shane Drohan and Christian Scott. All three pitchers should be rostered in standard leagues in my opinion, but I'm definitely still going to try to offer my thoughts about their potential to be impactful fantasy players the rest of the way.

If you are new to this column, remember that the goal is to look at several pitchers each week who are showing signs of "breaking out." That term gets thrown around a lot in our industry, but to me, it means they're flirting with the possibility of improving their baseline performance across a larger sample.

So, while we typically look at younger pitchers as potential "breakouts," I won't limit myself to only youngsters. The concept of the breakout can be applied to pitchers of all experience levels, as we have seen numerous examples of pitchers improving significantly from season to season, even into their 30s. All roster percentages are courtesy of Yahoo! Let's see which of these arms we can trust going forward and where we can expect regression! All statistics were current through Wednesday, July 22.

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

• 60% Rostered
• Fantasy Stats: 98 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 94 K
• Advanced Stats: 4.27 SIERA, 3.45 xERA, 23.2% K%, 9.4% BB%

Lambert has been an unlikely hero for the Astros this season. They pulled him off the scrap heap as he had washed out of the majors and spent last season pitching in Japan. A former second-round pick, he struggled badly in Colorado and entered this season with a career ERA close to 6.00.

Lambert has been giving Houston (and fantasy managers) quality innings for most of the season. There's something to be said for the fact that he's gone five innings or more in all but two of his 17 starts, and the fact that he's only allowed three earned runs or more in three of those is equally impressive.

He was solid again last night against Miami, allowing just two earned runs over six frames, and looked dominant in his previous start against the Orioles in which he struck out 10.

Lambert's been rolling with one of the most varied arsenals that you'll see from a starting pitcher. The super-balanced arsenal is a double-edged sword at times, because while it suggests that a pitcher has many different tools at their disposal to use against hitters, it also can be a sign that they don't have at least one really good pitch that they want to use 30% of the time or more.

Lambert's fastball is "good enough" as he makes up for average velocity with good movement on the pitch. He features his slider and sweeper to righties, while going heavier with his cutter and changeup to lefties. The changeup has the most swing-and-miss to it (36% Whiff%), but the cutter is really effective at inducing weak contact and keeping lefties off his fastball.

His SIERA suggests some potential regression to his ERA, based mainly on his extreme fly ball rate (47%) and relatively low HR/FB (8.9%). But his xERA and Barrel% (6.8%) are both really good, so the fly balls really aren't hurting him since they're not getting hit all that hard.

I'm not usually one to predict that a pitcher can continue to outperform their underlying metrics, but Lambert's situation is a true mixed bag here, and the sample size of his solid results only continues to grow. He's likely maxed out here as a pitcher with only 92 Stuff+, but there's no real reason to think that he'll turn completely back into a pumpkin either.

Verdict: Ride it out with Lambert; Houston has turned him into a very solid pitcher. But temper expectations as he's ultimately capped in terms of his upside.

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

• 38% Rostered
• Fantasy Stats: 76 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 76 K
• Advanced Stats: 3.66 SIERA, 3.30 xERA, 24.0% K%, 6.6% BB%

If Lambert is a bit too unexciting for your tastes, then I'm ready to give a full-throated endorsement of Brewers' lefty Shane Drohan, who just so happens to be more widely available in leagues, too.

The 27-year-old is a former Red Sox farm hand who appears to be the next Milwaukee success story. We saw the Brewers optimize Kyle Harrison's arsenal and get big-time results, and they appear to be doing the same with Drohan, too.

To be fair, Drohan had excellent minor league numbers before joining the Milwaukee organization. He had a 35.3% K% at Triple-A in 2025 for Boston and strong strikeout numbers throughout his various minor league stops.

But he also had some troubling walk numbers, too, so his current 6.6% BB% is a very big deal and a potential reason as to why he looks like the real deal.

Drohan has a very strong arsenal of pitches with multiple offerings capable of inducing whiffs. His four-seamer sits at 95 mph with solid horizontal movement and is inducing a 31.6% Whiff%, while his slider (38.2% Whiff) has been deadly.

Shane Drohan, Nasty 87mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/RRUxRY3J4Z

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 11, 2026

He can attack RHH with a big curveball and uses a cutter against hitters from both sides of the plate. His sinker is the only pitch getting hit all that hard (.460 xSLG), and he's not overly reliant on any one pitch, with his fastball leading the way with 30% usage.

His advanced numbers look great (12.2% SwStr%, 28.7% CSW%, 82.7% Z-Contact%) and there are no major red flags in terms of BABIP or LOB% either.

He's coming off a season-high nine strikeouts against Miami, a team that had been surging on offense going into that game, too.

Verdict: I think there's a very good chance that Drohan is the real deal, and the hit rate on pitchers that Milwaukee has had only gives me more confidence that he could be a major contributor to their rotation and fantasy squads down the stretch.

Christian Scott, New York Mets

• 32% Rostered
• Fantasy Stats: 63.1 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 78 K
• Advanced Stats: 3.80 SIERA, 4.00 xERA, 28.8% K%, 10.7% BB%

We all love chasing strikeouts, especially me (remember, I am the K prop guy), but not at the cost of our ratios. Scott's strikeouts have been impressive, but his walks are concerning, as is his inability to pitch deep into ballgames.

The 27-year-old right-hander has pitched into the sixth inning just once since entering the rotation for the Mets in early May. His low innings per start was understandable at first as he was working his way back from arm surgery and a missed season in 2025. But walks and a lack of efficiency with his pitches have run up his pitch counts in other starts, limiting his potential for wins and quality starts.

Christian Scott, 98mph Paint. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/BWXwZmqIS3

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 16, 2026

He had his best start of the season against Philly last week, whiffing seven while holding their very good offense scoreless. However, he couldn't finish the fourth inning against the Brewers yesterday as he ran up his pitch count early and failed to put away hitters when he had the chance.

There's a lot to like in his profile as he pairs his 95 mph heater with a big-breaking sweeper that has 17 inches of glove-side run and a solid 34% Whiff%. His cutter has been an effective third pitch, but he really hasn't developed his curveball or splitter, and could stand another offspeed pitch that he can throw for strikes.

We've seen enough glimpses from him to tentatively buy in, but he'll need to fix the walk issue and fine-tune his approach a bit before we can definitively label him a breakout (that 1.26 WHIP is still tough to stomach). I'd add him in leagues for the upside, but he's a lot more volatile of a pitcher than Drohan or Lambert, who provide a safer floor for ratios.

Verdict: Scott is showing signs of being a really effective MLB pitcher, but lacks the consistency that we are looking for in a reliable fantasy asset. I'd still roll the dice on him, but don't drop another starter with a safer floor for him.

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