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Happy American Thanksgiving. Ellis' favorite Thursday prop bets on Sleeper. This week he has selected four picks for each of the thre games this Thursday: GB vs. DET, WAS vs. DAL, and SF vs. SEA. Use Ellis' picks to win money on Sleeper!
Happy Thanksgiving to all my American friends. The NFL decided to turn itself on its head last week. With stars going down to injury, to ridiculous upsets, this league is harder than ever to predict. All in all, we’re coming off our worst week of picks, so let’s bounce back!
I’ll have all three Thursday games and my prop selections for each game in this article. The three matchups this Thursday are the Packers vs. Lions, Commanders vs. Cowboys, and the 49ers taking on the Seahawks. Last week wasn’t great, as we got wrecked by injuries. Considering we took the overs on Joe Burrow, Mark Andrews, and Aaron Jones, their injuries were a death sentence to our selections. Last week dropped two prop articles and finished 0-8 on our selections building on our 33-32 across all articles this season.
My name is Ellis Johnson and I have been writing for RotoBaller for four years. You can catch my weekly Fantasy Pie Shop articles on RotoBaller (trust me, it’s as fun as it sounds). RotoBaller is coming out with weekly DFS plays and lots of great analysis with their DFS pass. Be sure to check it out as the team has been crushing it so far this year!
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Packers @ Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery (RB, DET)
Over 35.5 and 66.5 rushing yards, respectively
This has to be the best backfield tandem in the league. It’s a true thunder and lightning duo, with lots of lightning. Last week, we saw David Montgomery explode for a 75-yard TD, showcasing that Gibbs isn’t the only big play threat.
The Packers will be in for a long day unless they somehow find a way to stop the run. I doubt they will, as they have yet to figure it out all year. Sleeper.com has a special for Gibbs, dropping his rushing to 35.5 yards. Considering he has hit that in seven of his eight professional games, that’s a lock in a good gamescript.
Montgomery holds a much higher line, but this should be the perfect gamescript for him. This season he might be the best RB to play with a lead, as he grinds down the clock against anyone. He has surpassed this line in six of his seven games this year, and you can’t ask for a better gamescript. Fire up these two for an easy, early W this Thanksgiving.
Anders Carlson (K, GB)
Over 1.5 made Field Goals
If you have followed my work, you know I love kicker props. However, I usually save them for the league’s best kickers. Unfortunately, Anders Carlson isn’t quite at that level, but I’m taking a swing anyway.
This Packers offense is stumbling along and is facing a buzz-saw of a Lions team this week. Considering this game is in a dome, and the Packers will need to get points whenever they can, I expect Carlson will have multiple Field Goal attempts. He has at least two attempts in each of his last three games, setting him up nicely for this week.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
Under 4.5 receptions
Laporta has been incredible. The fact that he and Dalton Kincaid are playing at the level that they are as rookies is incredible. Unfortunately, we have seen Laporta take a dip in his usage over the last few weeks.
To no slight of his own, the increased involvement of Jahmyr Gibbs and Jamieson Williams has taken away some of his opportunities. Since their Bye in Week Nine, he only has seven catches in two games. Plus, the Packers are averaging only three receptions a game to the TE position since Week Three.
Considering they should be playing with a lead for most of this game, I expect receptions will be at a premium for this team. As a result, I’m banking on this team not needing him to reach five receptions in order to secure this win.
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Commanders @ Cowboys
Sam Howell (QB, WAS)
Over 15.5 rushing yards
This is a sneaky one and might be one of my favorites across the board. We know Howell has been slinging it, and we also know that he isn't afraid to run. In a game where Howell will be consistently under pressure, I expect he’ll be forced to run more than usual.
Even with his limited rushing attempts, Howell has surpassed this line in each of his last three games. He now faces a Cowboys team that is allowing the second most rushing yards per game to the QB position. Whether he wants to or not, I think Howell will be forced to surpass this line in order to have success this week.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Over 0.5 Passing Yards
A Sleeper.com special here. Take this easy money and run this Thanksgiving. However, even if this was not a special line, Prescott should have passed for over 277.5 yards (which was his original line).
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WAS)
Over 62.5 Total yards
Assuming Antonio Gibson misses another game (he practiced in limited fashion on Tuesday), this is a smash prop. After starting the year on fire, BRob came back to earth before becoming nuclear in the last two weeks.
What’s arguably the most impressive about this resurgence is his receiving impact. Over his last two games, he has 13 receptions for 177 yards receiving and is also averaging double-digit carries. Although this Cowboys team is strong against RBs, Robinson will be heavily featured as an every-down back in a game they will likely be playing catchup in.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Over 6.5 receptions
After A.J. Brown was held to one reception for eight yards, the case can be made that Lamb is the best WR in the league right now. In the four weeks after their Bye, he has totaled 40 receptions, 538 yards, and four touchdowns.
He now faces a Commanders team that has been brutal against top WRs. In recent weeks we have seen A.J. Brown, D.J. Moore, and Drake London all surpass 125 receiving yards. Lamb is on fire right now and should feast in this matchup. I don’t love where this line is set, but he should get fed throughout the game in this one.
49ers @ Seahawks
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
Over 32.5 Receiving yards
You could parlay all of CMC’s overs and I think it’d be a good bet. There is no denying how incredible he is in all aspects of the game. So, why did I choose his receiving yards?
This week he faces a Seahawks team that is allowing the most targets and receptions to the RB position. Considering CMC is always involved in the receiving game already, he should easily see the usage to reach this line. With five or more receptions in each of his last three games and over 40 receiving yards in three of his last four, it’s not worth overthinking this one.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Over 189.5 Passing yards
Another Sleeper.com special here, where they dropped his original line of 253.5 yards to 189.5. Regardless of the discount, I’d be taking the over here. Purdy has been on fire and surpassed 254 passing yards in each of his last four games. Seattle also is allowing the fourth most passing yards against since Week Three. Fire this one up this Thanksgiving Thursday.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Over 48.5 Receiving yards
It’s tricky when we are unsure if Geno Smith will be available or not. On Tuesday, it was reported that Smith should be ready to go Thursday, which is great for the Seahawks weapons.
Tyler Lockett is once again trucking along to a very respectable season. With five or more targets in every game except Week One this season, he is always involved in this team’s game plan. Hands down the weakest part of this 49ers defense is their ability to stop WRs (although the QB needs enough time to get them the ball). As a result, 48.5 seems like a relatively low line for a WR who has passed this line against the 49ers in seven of his last 10 meetings.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Under 0.5 Touchdowns
I’ll be honest, I was committed to selecting a 49ers WR since the Seahawks are terrible against wideouts. However, after debating between Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, I realized I liked them both equally. That made me realize that Kittle could be the odd man out since I am already predicting CMC to also reach his over.
Kittle has been on fire lately, finishing as the fantasy TE three, two, and one, in his last three games. He also has over 75 yards in each of his last four games. I don’t usually select touchdown props in these articles, but considering that Sleeper.com is offering 1.36x your money for him NOT to score, that’s a nice bump. Plus, Seattle has yet to allow a TE touchdown on the season, as per Lineups.com.
Thanks for reading. Check out my prop picks for the second Thursday game this week!
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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