RADIO
It's getting down to the nitty gritty at this point. Hours of work have been spent pouring over your cheat sheet and adjustments are being made based on the most minute of details. Eventually, it gets to the point of over-analysis. With it being the most popular draft week of the year now that the third preseason game is behind us, it's time to make the final adjustments to our cheat sheets.
Obviously, the purpose of creating and using a cheat sheet going into a draft is to identify value. The way drafting should be approached is creating a draft strategy to identify the best combined value for all of your picks. Many analysts will tell you to follow the NFL Draft strategy of "taking the best player on the board," but fantasy is so much more finite than an NFL roster. Enough about draft strategy, our analysts have provided plenty of content available through the draft strategy tab on the RotoBaller home page. This article is meant to target value picks at running back. Essentially, I'm using the word value here to define the relationship between where a player is being chosen and the return that a player will provide to his/her owner. I've divided the draft into three tiers here and provided players within each tier that I would be targeting. To be clear, targeting a player doesn't necessarily mean I'm going to shoot this player way up my draft board. Rather, I am saying these players will outperform their average draft position by a sizable margin and may be worth a slight reach once they are in range of that ADP.
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Running Backs Not Getting Enough Love
Top Of The Draft (Rounds 1-3)
LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF) - 15th overall, 9th RB
The hate has gone too far on McCoy. He's still getting drafted as the 9th RB overall in standard drafts, but every outlet you look to is saying to avoid McCoy. Look, I love Jeremy Hill (being drafted at RB 10), but after that it's guys like Mark Ingram, Lamar Miller, and Alfred Morris. All nice players in their own rights, but none of them have #1 RB upside, yes I said #1 RB, as in the top RB in the game.
Last season, in a year where McCoy started slow and was seemingly mediocre, he finished with 1,474 total yards and 5 TD's. That was good for RB12 on the season. So, if McCoy's down year is RB12, why would anyone be afraid to to take him as the ninth RB off the board. I think Tyrod Taylor being named the Bills starting quarterback helps open up space for McCoy, and unlike some of McCoy's Philly teams in the past, Rex Ryan will stay loyal to the run. Even with the injury concerns around Week 1, McCoy can be a draft day value.
Justin Forsett (RB, BAL) - 32nd overall, 14th RB
Forsett was a pleasant surprise for anyone lucky enough to own him last season. He finished with 1529 total yards last season and 8 total TD's without really having a stranglehold on the full time gig until several weeks into the season. The numbers were still good enough for Forsett to finish as the number 8 RB in fantasy football.
Some think Forsett's RB8 finish last year was a fluke. I not only do not buy into that, I think Forsett has a chance to be even better this year. Forsett had a respectable 44 catches last season for just 263 yards. This year, Forsett gets to play for offensive coordinator Marc Trestman. Trestman was the head coach and play caller for the Chicago Bears the past two seasons. When Trestman arrived in Chicago, starting running back Matt Forte was also coming off a 44 catch season. In Trestman's tenure with the Bears, Forte averaged 88 catches for 700 yards and 4 TD's per season and set the record for running back receptions in a season with 102 last year. There is certainly going to be plenty of touches for Forsett and many of those may come in the passing game where he can easily improve on last seasons totals.
Undervalued Running Backs That Could Pay Off
Middle Of The Draft (Rounds 4-6)
Andre Ellington (RB, ARI) - 58th overall, 23rd RB
Heading into the 2014 season, Ellington was the apple of many owners eyes. He had an ADP that positioned him in the top 3 rounds and and the Cardinals made it known that they planned to use him at a high rate. Ellington entered the season though with a foot injury that hampered him all season. The Cardinals used him as promised, giving him over 20 touches per game in the 12 games he played, but he never had the burst that we saw in his rookie season when he averaged 5.5 yards per carry (down to 3.3 last season).
Here is the the light at the end of the tunnel. In weeks 5-9 last season, Ellington managed 103 yards per game and totaled 3 touchdowns, good for a top 10 RB performance over that time span on a per game basis. These are the weeks that Ellington played with a healthy Carson Palmer. I wrote up Palmer here describing his potential as a sleeper QB for this year. A healthy Palmer means less men in the box. A healthy Ellington means an explosive running back. Together, they could be great.
Later In The Draft (Rounds 7+)
Rashad Jennings (RB, NYG) - 77th overall, 29th RB
It's all about health for Rashad Jennings. He's a talented, do it all running back who should be playing on a top 10 offense. Jennings effectively played 8 healthy games last season, in which the Giants gave him the ball early and often. He averaged 22.5 touches in those eight games and converted them into 800 total yards and 4 TD's. Prorate those numbers, which could get better behind an improved offensive line, to a 16 games season and you have a 1600 total yard back with 8 TD's, aka, a running back that would have finished 8th in RB fantasy points last season.
Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI) - 91st overall, 34th RB
Mathews is more than just the handcuff to DeMarco Murray that some people are giving him credit for. We all know about the high speed offense that Chip Kelly runs in Philly, but let's put it in the perspective of the backup running back. Even with LeSean McCoy touching the ball 340 times, a role that will now be filled by DeMarco Murray, Eagles backup running backs (mainly Chris Polk and Darren Sproles) finished with 151 touches. Mathews is a far more talented player than Sproles and Polk, and my guess is that the Eagles will temper Murray's workload coming off his monster 459 touch season in 2014. I think it's safe to pencil in Mathews for 10-12 touches per game, which in this offense could warrant playing him in your flex with the upside of him being a top 10 running back if Murray, a notoriously injury prone running back, ever gets hurt.
