Round 4 PGA DFS Showdown Picks - 2025 RBC Canadian Open

June 7, 2025

Todd McGill's Round 4 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 RBC Canadian Open. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.

With one week remaining until the U.S. Open, the PGA Tour's best have made their way to TPC Toronto this week for the RBC Canadian Open. In improbable fashion, Matteo Manessaro finds himself in a tie for the lead with Ryan Fox at -14 under par. This year's event is absent of any real big names to speak of, with Rory McIlroy missing the cut among other top names ahead of the year's third major.

There are proving to be many ways to get things done at TPC Toronto, but putting and approach play seem to be the metrics leading the bunch. The one surprise is the greater importance of driving accuracy over distance, given the length this week. With eight guys within two shots of the lead, plenty of potential drama is in store tomorrow.

Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.

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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times

The extra wind on Sunday may make conditions a little more difficult down the stretch, and given the lack of firepower at the top of the board, the outcome is still very undecided. While wind will be present throughout the whole day, choosing players who can get through most of their round before wind gusts reach 30+ mph could be an advantage to exploit, especially as the building blocks of lineups.

Round 4 Strategy

The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.

Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.

$10,000+

Favorite Play: Ludvig Aberg has played solid golf over the last two days, aside from a crushing quadruple bogey on Friday that otherwise would have been a bogey-free day similar to his round on Saturday. The 25-year-old is having a time with the driver, ranking third in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.33) and fourth in driving distance (316.1).

The putter is still a concern at times, but sitting at T25 gives Aberg a decent number of holes to play before the roughest part of the weather begins. Certainly more than the guys starting later in the day.

Other Options: Corey Conners

$9,000+

Favorite Play: Mackenzie Hughes could be more of my heart talking than my head, but the Canadian has had a much-needed week in his home country thus far and has a solid chance of securing his third top 5 of the season. Iron play and short game have led the way, as he ranks eighth in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.65) and 14th in strokes gained around the green (+0.43).

Hughes will most certainly have the most momentum to get the job done tomorrow, and in all reality, should likely be the betting favorite in terms of resume and pedigree.

The line of this Mackenzie Hughes hole-out is mesmerizing ☄️
pic.twitter.com/7MosMW9q2J

— SleeperGolf (@SleeperGolf) June 5, 2025

Other Options: Nick Taylor

$8,000+

Favorite Play: Ryan Fox has played well enough through the first three days to be as confident in him as any player inside the top 5 on this leaderboard. After watching him play and seeing the consistency across the board from a strokes gained standpoint, it's surprising that he's only managed one win in his PGA Tour career, which just came a few weeks ago in Myrtle Beach.

The Australian is killing it with his approach play, as he's gained +6.11 strokes with his irons through the first three days. He's also capable of posting something incredibly low, given that he's already made 20 birdies through the first three rounds. The putter has gone sideways for the 38-year-old at times this season, but that worry isn't there tomorrow as he's turned in two straight solid performances on the greens at TPC Toronto on Friday and Saturday.

Other Options: Alex Smalley, Cameron Young

$7,000+

Favorite Play: For all intents and purposes, the way this year's course setup and leaderboard looks is similar in talent and course type to what Matt McCarty thrived in last year on the Korn Ferry Tour on his way to racking up three victories in six starts before jumping to the fall swing and capturing an early victory in Utah.

TPC Toronto has played like a quality KFT venue, where strong play off the tee and making a ton of putts usually results in successful outcomes. McCarty makes up for a lack of distance with deadly accuracy, as he ranks 2nd on the week in driving accuracy (85.7%). The 27-year-old is also ranked ninth in strokes gained putting (+4.42). We know he has the gumption to deliver while looking down the barrel, and he'll get another opportunity tomorrow.

In just his third career PGA Tour start, Matt McCarty wins the Black Desert Championship. 🏆pic.twitter.com/4e6XdHxrAs

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) October 14, 2024

Other Options: Kevin Yu, Byeong Hun An, Adam Hadwin 

$6,000+

Favorite Play: John Pak got off to a rough start in his third round, making three bogeys in the first four holes and falling to -4 under par. However, he bounced back strong after making the turn with three birdies and an eagle to post a 30 on the more difficult closing nine. The 26-year-old also hit all nine greens and all seven fairways in his closing stretch.

Iron play has been strong all week, ranking second in strokes gained on approach. The distance off the tee gave reason to doubt Pak's effectiveness on this long of a track, but after seeing the thickness of the rough and the reward for hitting fairways, choosing the guy leading the field in driving accuracy (92.9%) is a no-brainer.

Other Options: Taylor Montgomery

Showdown Optimizer

The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.

Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.

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