RADIO
The PGA RotoBaller staff digs into their One and Done selections for The Arnold Palmer Invitational. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for this week's event.
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For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course which highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.
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One and Done Selections - The Arnold Palmer Invitational
In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!
Joe Nicely - Max Homa
Alternate - Viktor Hovland
It’s been a brutally-rough start to the OAD season for ol’ Team J-Nice, but a T5 from Shane Lowry in last week’s Honda Classic is at least a step in the right direction. As we head into a stretch with events that boast massive prize purses, hopefully, we can pick up some momentum.
Speaking of momentum, few players have more of it than Max Homa, a guy that captured one title and battled for another on the West Coast Swing. Homa heads to this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational in sublime form and with his confidence level steadily growing, as it seems as though the only thing that was keeping him from being one of the best players in the world was his lack of belief in himself to do so.
Though he’s notched four of his six career victories in his home state of California, his record at Bay Hill - which reads T17-T10-T24 over the last three years - is impressive by any measure. With the uncertainty that comes with this week’s expected weather conditions, I’m comfortable firing away with Homa and saving some of the other favorites for a later tournament.
Yearly Earnings - $1,331,556
Yearly Cuts Made - 6/7
Josh Bennett - Rory McIlroy
Alternate - Scottie Scheffler
I think it’s time to run out one of the big dogs this week, have been skating by so far with mostly middle of the pack guys that had a shot to win events but were no where near the favorites. Letting it rip this week with a guy that can definitely win this event in Rory. He’s won it before and has finished outside the top 13 in the event only one time since 2015. For a while early in the season and end of last season we were talking about Rory being back to the best player on the Tour, and now seemingly has taken a back seat to Rahm for sure and maybe even Scottie. I think this week is a perfect week for him to get back on track and prove he’s in the same class as Rahm and Scottie, especially at a place he’s done it before.
Yearly Earnings - $626,112
Yearly Cuts Made - 4/7
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Spencer Aguiar - Will Zalatoris
Alternate - Rory McIlroy
It has been one of those seasons. I've been dead-set on this path of taking a popular Will Zalatoris all week since my model believes he is the best upside play to target when we skip Rahm/Rory/Scottie, but leave it to fate that Zalatoris has drawn the wrong end of the perceived draw.
In my opinion, there's a lot that can shift that answer over the next 40 hours, so I'll stick with what my model originally wanted and not try to get cute at the very end since there isn't an alternate that I equally wanted to deploy.
If you want to play Rahm or Rory, I get it, but Florida courses always add an extra wrinkle to the equation because of water. Is that enough to slow Rahm down when we add in a switch of greens? Maybe. But Zalatoris has shown tons of upside in the past when we get these more challenging layouts that allow him to use his par-five scoring to help build his score.
Yearly Earnings - $699,204
Yearly Cuts Made - 4/7
Byron Lindeque - Keegan Bradley
The “Ketchup Kings” are steadily racking up dollars, but we have yet to really hit it big, with Ben An shooting the sixth-worth score on Sunday to fall all the way to T21, after finding himself sixth midway through the front nine. Yet another un-clutch weekend performance from our selection.
This week we are going to take an absolute flier on Keegan Bradley. He has a fantastic track record at this venue, having made the cut in 10 consecutive appearances at Bay Hill, which I am now certain he calls “Bae Hill” with that kind of history. Bradley has gained across all four categories in his last two appearances, finishing T10 and T11. His putter is arguably a lot more lethal now, than a year ago, making for an appetizing week for the Brad man!
At 60-1 in a field full of the “Big 3” he will be a rather lonely submission to an event with this much money on the line. However, I want to burn the “Big 3” at courses where I am more certain of the safety they provide, with less water, and most importantly, less wind. This is the week to let the freak-flag flap around in the 40 mph gusts we can expect on Friday, hoping to get massive leverage in the OAD market at an event essentially being played in a wind tunnel. All hail Ketchup King Keagan!!!
Yearly Earnings - $1,649,939
Yearly Cuts Made - 6/7
Andrew Putters - Scottie Scheffler
Alternate - Max Homa
This selection nearly goes without saying. Scottie ranks very high most of all my measurables this week. A couple columns I am highlighting are SG OTT and SG Putting on Bermuda greens. Scottie is elite in both categories. Also, with Bay Hill having US Open like conditions this week, I love Scheffler to have a great week.
Yearly Earnings - $1,420,558
Yearly Cuts Made - 5/7
Mia The Model - Matthew Fitzpatrick
Alternate - Hideki Matsuyama
Byron T20
TeeOff T20
Aggregated Results
One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means an option like Rory McIlroy got rewarded for being a better option for our models (which we see with his 12.5% chance) all the way down to the bottom of our board in Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley, Jordan Spieth and Keith Mitchell – four golfers that received 2.5% of the projected pick equity.
We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with Matthew Fitzpatrick this week as the selection andHideki Matsuyama as the alternate.
Let us know what you think of her chances this week!
Yearly Earnings - $2,176,086
Yearly Cuts Made - 5/7
Running Totals
Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!
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