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Trade candidates to buy or sell in fantasy baseball after Week 15 of the 2023 MLB season. Ben Rosener lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.
Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball. It's almost as important as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and witness their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor in terms of the standings.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some candidates who are currently undervalued and worth pursuing in trades, as well as some overvalued players who you should consider dealing if they currently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Dansby Swanson, SS, Chicago Cubs
Dansby Swanson hasn’t been quite as productive, at least from a fantasy standpoint, as he was during his breakout season with Atlanta in 2022.
- Dansby Swanson in 2022: 696 PA, 25 HR, 18 SB, .277 average, .329 on-base percentage
- Dansby Swanson in 2023, 364 PA, 10 HR, 4 SB, .261 average, .346 on-base percentage
Still, there’s plenty to like about Swanson’s underlying metrics and quality of contact metrics this season. This makes him an ideal trade target for fantasy managers in search of production at shortstop.
After logging a .337 xwOBA and a .430 xwOBAcon last year, the shortstop is posting a .364 xwOBA and a .434 xwOBAcon this season.
He’s also collecting barrels at a rate that’s on pace for a career-best finish. Swanson is sporting a 13.0% barrel rate so far in 2023, well above his previous personal high of 11.4% during the 2021 campaign.
In addition to the increase in quality contact, the infielder is also making better decisions at the plate in terms of what pitches to swing at. Both his chase rate and whiff rate drop compared to last season. The chase rate this season, for context, ranks in the 83rd percentile league-wide.
- Dansby Swanson In 2022: 26.4% chase rate, 30.7% whiff rate
- Dansby Swanson In 2023: 22.7% chase rate, 28.5% whiff rate
The combination of even better plate discipline plus improved quality of contact metrics should only help Swanson continue to produce this season. And while the lower stolen base totals aren't ideal, the veteran should have no problem finishing the year as a top 12 or top 15 shortstop at this rate.
Ezequiel Duran, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, Texas Rangers
Speaking of shortstops, Ezequiel Duran is eligible at that position, as well as almost every other position on the field in Yahoo leagues, including second base, third base, and outfield.
It’s difficult to look at a player that's hitting .306 with a .346 on-base percentage, 12 home runs, and four stolen bases in 246 plate appearances as being “undervalued” but that’s exactly what Duran is, thanks in part to this versatility.
With the ability to fill in at most positions across the diamond for fantasy managers, especially those with “corner infield” or “middle infield” slots in their starting lineups, Duran could prove to be a key player in a number of fantasy playoff races down the stretch.
And with that versatility comes some intriguing production. Because, if anything, the 24-year-old’s production at the plate looks very much legit so far. Sure, he has a .381 BABIP that might lead to a bit of regression. Sure, his 26.4% strikeout rate is in the 24th percentile league-wide. And sure, his 38% chase rate is in just the eighth percentile league-wide.
But the former Yankees prospect has done nothing but make loud contact whenever he has put the ball in play so far. And if someone in your league thinks the BABIP is a sign of serious regression then now’s the time to make a trade.
Ezequiel Duran 2023 Percentile Rankings:
- Max Exit Velocity: 97th (115.2 MPH)
- xSLG: 89th (.513)
- xwOBA: 82nd (.357)
- Barrel Rate: 81st (12.6%)
The Rangers rookie is one of just 25 qualified batters in the league to rank in the 80th percentile or better in all four of the above categories. Additionally, for someone with such a low chase rate, Duran hasn’t gotten beaten too much with breaking stuff or offspeed pitches. He’s sporting a .341 xwOBA against breaking balls and a .444 xwOBA against offspeed offerings.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Bryce Elder, SP, Atlanta Braves
Bryce Elder was mentioned in this column a few months ago as an overvalued player to look into trading considering his ERA was likely to spike rather significantly. Well, the 24-year-old’s ERA has gone up since then. At the time of that last column, it was 1.75 over 36 innings.
As of the beginning of play on Thursday, it was still decidedly very good, sitting at 2.45. Overall, the starter has also logged a 3.80 FIP, 80 strikeouts, and 30 walks in 102 2/3 innings of work, allowing eight home runs in the process.
Yet the same reasons for trading Elder largely persist. That he’s done a good job of limiting barrels (5.4%) and walks (7.2%) points to his ERA staying reasonably low this season. And that he’s pitching for an Atlanta team with a 57-28 record will only help his pitcher-win potential.
With that said, the ERA doesn’t seem likely to stay this low, even if the low barrel rate, low walk rate, and decent flow of pitcher wins continue. The right-hander is giving up a bit too much hard contact (40.8% hard-hit rate) while posting below-average strikeout (19.3% strikeout rate) numbers. And while he's getting batters to wave at pitches outside the zone at a decent rate, with a 29.6% chase rate, the combination of a higher hard-hit rate and low strikeouts just isn't ideal moving forward. Especially with a 3.80 FIP and a 3.75 xERA looming large over Elder's 2.45 ERA.
The Atlanta starter is still going to be a quality fantasy option down the stretch, but if you can acquire a similarly impactful bat for the hurler, now might be the time to consider a trade. The fact that Elder has allowed just five earned runs in his last four starts (25 2/3 innings) should only boost his fantasy trade value. Unsurprisingly, and in something resembling a microcosm of Elder’s season so far, he’s struck out just 15 batters during that span.
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