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The Winter Classic, between the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars being played in the Cotton Bowl, is the only game on the NHL schedule on New Year’s Day, with puck drop scheduled for 2:05 ET, a marquee event for the league and a great chance to play props with Monkey Knife Fight.
It has been a relatively disappointing season for the Nashville Predators, mostly due to atypically poor goaltending. There are some issues with the scorers, too, as Mikael Granlund, Ryan Johansen, and Matt Duchene are among the Predators that could be expected to produce more. Nevertheless, there remains a significant amount of talent on this roster, even though Nashville currently sits in sixth place in the Central Division with 42 points in 38 games.
It may be somewhat unexpected to have the Dallas Stars hosting an outdoor game but the Stars can make it work, and Dallas’ season is not unlike Nashville’s when it comes to underachieving forwards. In fact, Dallas is probably in worse shape because even their top scorers – Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov, and Jamie Benn – have not been scoring near their pace in previous seasons. The difference, however, is that the Stars have great goaltending and that could make it tough for Nashville’s scorers to get on the board.
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NASHVILLE-DALLAS
MORE OR LESS
Tyler Seguin MORE THAN 4.5 SHOTS + BLOCKS – This is a very fair number to put in place, as Seguin has gone for at least five shots plus blocks in 11 of the past 20 games, and he is averaging 4.1 shots per game and .65 blocks per game in that stretch. Distribution of those shots and blocked shots isn’t uniform, obviously, but it’s enough reason to be optimistic about Seguin’s chances.
Roman Josi MORE THAN 0.5 ASSISTS – The funny thing about Josi scoring at a career-best pace right now, with 39 points in 38 games, is that it’s goal-scoring that is setting him apart. Not quite at the midway point of the season, Josi has 14 goals, one fewer goal than his career high of 15. He does have assists in three straight games and in nine of the past 20 games.
Ben Bishop LESS THAN 32.5 SAVES – Dallas’ star goaltender has a .926 save percentage but is averaging just over 29 saves per 60 minutes, which makes it difficult to bank on 33 or more, especially when Bishop has recorded fewer than 30 saves in five of his past six starts.
Pekka Rinne LESS THAN 28.5 SAVES – It’s been a tough season for both Nashville goaltenders but Rinne is rocking a .894 save percentage, which would be a career low. He’s also recorded 28 or fewer saves in five of his past six starts and the Stars are below average when it comes to shot generation, with 30.3 per 60 minutes (all situations).
Alexander Radulov MORE THAN 3.5 FANTASY POINTS – It’s been a bit of a struggle for Radulov this season but he appears to be breaking out of the slump, with 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 19 shots on goal during an eight-game point streak.
Filip Forsberg MORE THAN 3.5 FANTASY POINTS – A brilliant talent who has 27 points and 111 shots on goal in 32 games, Forsberg has even better splits on the road, which still applies when it comes to handling line matchups in this outdoor game.
Ryan Ellis MORE THAN 3.5 FANTASY POINTS – While the Nashville blueliner has 28 points in 38 games, he is currently in the midst of a season-high three-game scoreless drought, so consider him due to get back on the board. He’s playing big minutes – more than 25 minutes in eight of the past nine games – so Ellis will have opportunities.
RAPID FIRE
Roman Josi -0.5 points vs. John Klingberg – After missing some time with injury, Klingberg is starting to come out of an early-season funk, recording six assists in the past five games, but he doesn’t have the consistency nor the goal-scoring of Josi, who is having the most productive season of his career.
Filip Forsberg +0.5 fantasy points vs. Alexander Radulov – This is a case of two talented wingers, both of whom should be counted on to contribute offensively and it’s a close enough matchup to prefer the underdog, Forsberg, when he gets an extra half fantasy point in his favor.
PUTTING UP POINTS
It’s not easy to select three players to put up points in this game, and blame goes to the Dallas Stars, who don’t score enough (ranking 26th in goals/60 with 2.59) but also do a bang-up job when it comes to goal prevention, ranking second in the league with 2.45 goals against/60. So, take the top two Stars – Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov – and add in Nashville’s standout blueliner and leading scorer, Roman Josi, and hope for the best.
