NFL Rookies to Watch in Week 4: Fantasy Football Dynasty and Redraft Leagues

September 30, 2023

NFL rookie outlooks for fantasy football Week 4 (2023). Hayden looks at promising fantasy rookies at QB, RB, and WR to identify potential sleepers and busts.

Plenty of first-year players have begun making their marks across the NFL. Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua has been among the top rookie performers so far. The BYU product has had a record-setting start to his career, making 30 catches in his first three career games. Houston's prized rookie wideout Tank Dell has also played quite well; Dell has averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game.

The biggest rookie story of last week, though, was Miami running back De'Von Achane. Achane was left on many fantasy benches or even waiver wires entering Week 3, but he teamed up with Raheem Mostert to produce the most incredible stat line for an RB duo of all time. Achane's ridiculous performance in Miami's blowout victory over Denver will be broken down later in this article.

Whether you're a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I will be breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column will be split into two parts: one pertaining to players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues

C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)

As the second pick in this year's draft, C.J. Stroud obviously entered Houston facing high expectations for his career. His professional debut at Baltimore was a bit rocky, unfortunately. Stroud threw for 242 yards on 44 passes (5.5 YPA), and the Texans did not find the end zone in a 25-9 loss. The former Ohio State Buckeye earned just a 55.6 passing grade from PFF for his performance.

Stroud showed improvement in his Week 2 outing. He passed for 384 yards on 47 attempts (8.2 YPA), two touchdowns, and no interceptions, though Houston did fall 31-20 to the Colts. Stroud's game against Jacksonville last week was his best yet; he completed 20 of 30 passes for 280 yards (9.3 YPA), tossed two more scores, and threw no interceptions. The Texans pulled off a surprising 37-17 upset over the Jaguars behind Stroud's leadership.

Stroud had the fourth-most pass attempts, fifth-most passing yards, fifth-highest QBR, eighth-highest YPA, and third-highest EPA among quarterbacks through Week 3. Sitting at the QB14 slot for the season, he has emerged as a legitimate fantasy option as a QB2. Watch to see if Stroud can maintain his positive momentum against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. He was sacked 11 times in his first two games, but zero times last week. Pittsburgh's defense led the NFL in sacks through three games.

De'Von Achane (RB, MIA)

Between the Nickelodeon games over the past few seasons and the upcoming Toy Story Funday Football broadcast between Atlanta and Jacksonville, it's clear that the NFL is trying to make itself more accessible to younger viewers. Unfortunately, last week's Dolphins-Broncos matchup was a big step backward in that regard. Miami's 70-20 rout was entirely unsuitable for children. The most graphic moment occurred when rookie RB De'Von Achane took a handoff 67 yards for a long score.

Achane finished the demolition with 203 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries, and he added four catches for 30 yards and two more scores. Achane posted 51.3 fantasy points despite having just 1.9 to his name beforehand. The Texas A&M product was a healthy scratch in Week 1, and he had only two touches for nine yards the following week against New England. Needless to say, Achane's explosion on Sunday made him a desirable waiver wire target in every league in which he was available.

Moving forward, the pressing question is if he will be able to achieve results that even mildly resemble what we saw from him against Denver. Teammate Raheem Mostert scored 45.2 fantasy points on 20 touches in his own right, and Jeff Wilson Jr. will be returning at some point. Check out the Dolphins in Buffalo to get more information on how much usage Achane will be getting in the coming weeks.

Jordan Addison (WR, MIN)

Vikings first-round wideout Jordan Addison has had a hot start to his rookie campaign. The talented receiver out of USC finished as Week 1's WR19 after catching four passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. He posted a second solid performance in Week 2 with three catches for 72 yards and another score. Finally, last week Addison set new career highs with six catches and eight targets, ultimately gaining 52 yards.

Addison has been a reliable option for quarterback Kirk Cousins; he has caught all 13 of his catchable targets so far. As he proves his value to the team, he is becoming more involved. Addison's snap shares and route participation rates have increased each week. He also has had at least 70 air yards in every game this season. Sitting at 18th among WRs in fantasy points per target and 12th in QB rating per target, Addison has been quite impressive.

Addison's fantasy managers have benefited from his situation in Minnesota to this point. The Vikings are averaging 46.0 pass attempts per game, tops in the league. They will probably be throwing less this week as they take on Carolina, though. The Panthers have been struggling, and their opponents have not had to pass the ball very much to defeat them. Carolina has yielded the seventh-fewest receptions and yards per game to opposing wideouts this year. See if Addison can produce well despite the likely less-favorable game script.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

Bryce Young (QB, CAR)

Unlike C.J. Stroud, Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young has had few positive moments this early in his NFL career. Young had a rough debut, earning an ugly 36.3 passing grade from PFF. He completed only 20 of 38 passes for 146 yards, resulting in an unsightly 3.8 YPA. He also threw two interceptions to just one touchdown in a 24-10 loss. In Week 2, Young was better but still not great. He gained merely 153 yards on 33 passes, falling 20-17 to New Orleans.

Young suffered an ankle injury versus the Saints and missed Carolina's Week 3 matchup. The Panthers' passing attack was more effective with the experienced Andy Dalton at the helm against Seattle. Dalton completed 34 of a whopping 58 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns, although the team did still lose 37-27. Young is now healthy again, and he will be starting versus Minnesota on Sunday.

If Young continues to play poorly, the pressure for him to deliver on his draft capital will gradually mount. The first-overall pick will have an excellent opportunity to silence the emerging doubters this week versus the Vikings. Minnesota poses a great matchup for Young, as they have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Dynasty managers should be expecting to see him post the best performance of his professional career on Sunday.

Rashee Rice (WR, KC)

Kansas City was the center of the football world last Sunday. While the Chiefs did earn a resounding 41-10 victory over Chicago, most of the buzz surrounded star tight end Travis Kelce and his relationship with decorated pop star Taylor Swift. Lost in the shuffle was the fact that rookie receiver Rashee Rice had his best game yet in the NFL. Rice caught five of seven targets for 59 yards, had a 52.0 percent snap share, ran 21 routes, and had a 55.3 percent route participation rate. All of these figures were career highs.

Rice has had his moments despite his limited usage through three weeks. He is averaging 2.84 yards per route run (10th among WRs) and 0.70 fantasy points per route run (eighth). Rice also has averaged 2.50 yards of separation on his targets, the seventh-most among wideouts. While some of this is due to blown coverages and successful offensive scheming, his ability to get separation was perhaps an exaggerated concern during the pre-draft process.

The Chiefs will take on the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football this week. The Jets have permitted the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers this year, and they are one of eight teams to not have allowed multiple receiving touchdowns to wideouts. Rice will need to play well to build upon his stat line from last week, but doing so would boost his dynasty stock quite a bit.

Jonathan Mingo (WR, CAR)

Jonathan Mingo was taken 39th in this year's NFL Draft, making him the fifth wideout off the board. Unlike fellow second-rounders Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, and Marvin Mims Jr., Mingo is still waiting for his first notable moment in the league. He has made just eight catches for 64 yards in his three appearances, and he is yet to surpass three receptions or 26 receiving yards in a single game.

The quarterbacking in Carolina has not done Mingo any favors, though. He has been targeted 19 times, but only nine of those looks were actually catchable. Mingo has the sixth-most unrealized air yards of all receivers this year. Nevertheless, fantasy football does not care why a player has failed to produce. Mingo's numbers are currently staggeringly low. His 0.16 fantasy points per route run, 0.76 fantasy points per target, and 0.50 yards per team pass attempt all rank outside the top 90 at his position.

Dynasty managers who roster Mingo want to see something out of their stashed rookie. A great opportunity for that comes this weekend as the Panthers face the Vikings. Minnesota has allowed the fifth-most receptions and third-most yards to wide receivers this year. Mingo did sustain a concussion last week versus Seattle, but it seems he has a decent chance of suiting up this week. If he does, watch for him to have a noteworthy performance.

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