NFL Rookies to Watch in Week 16: Fantasy Football Dynasty and Redraft Leagues

December 23, 2023

NFL rookie outlooks for fantasy football Week 16 (2023). Hayden looks at promising fantasy rookies at QB and WR to identify potential sleepers and busts.

With Week 16 having already started, the fantasy football playoffs are well underway. Last week, many rookies helped their fantasy managers survive and advance. Vikings first-year receiver Jordan Addison turned in an elite performance with 29.1 PPR points. Right behind Addison was Detroit tight end Sam LaPorta, who continued his incredible rookie season with three touchdowns versus the Broncos. Lions rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs had 108 total yards and two touchdowns en route to an outstanding showing of his own.

However, not all rookies were positive assets. Falcons running back Bijan Robinson, with 14 total yards and a fumble, scored just 0.4 PPR points. Ravens wideout Zay Flowers had only one catch on two targets for seven yards. Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid failed to tally a single reception. These disappointing displays forced many fantasy teams to make early playoff exits.

Whether you are a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I have been breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column is split into two parts: one about players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues

Jordan Addison (WR, MIN)

Minnesota rookie wideout Jordan Addison has had a great season. He began the year well with seven touchdowns in his first eight games, and he reached 10 PPR points in nine of his first 10. Addison has also had at least a 90-percent snap share in each of his past seven appearances. He was the WR1 in Week 7 with 31.3 PPR points, and he replicated that feat this past Saturday against the Bengals. Last week, Addison caught all six of his targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns.

Addison's target rate has not been ideal, though, as it stands at just 18.6 percent. This mark ranks 62nd among wide receivers. Addison has been quite efficient with the looks he has gotten, however, which has led him to both fantasy and real-world success. The rookie from USC is averaging 2.18 fantasy points per target, placing him 10th at his position. He is also ninth in target premium and 15th in QB rating per target. Addison has clearly been a very effective player.

The Vikings will face the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Look to see if Addison can put forth another excellent effort after last week's performance. From Week 11 through Week 14, he averaged just 7.3 PPR points per game, which was the worst three-game stretch of his season. With Nick Mullens taking over the starting QB position, though, Addison was suddenly revitalized. A second Mullens start will be quite insightful.

Rashee Rice (WR, KC)

The Chiefs have suffered from some suboptimal wide receiver play this season, but rookie Rashee Rice has picked an ideal time to step up for the squad. Rice began his 2023 campaign with six sub-60-percent snap shares, but he has reached that mark in all games but one since then. He has also had at least nine targets and seven receptions in each of his past four outings. Last Sunday, Rice excelled by catching all nine of his targets for 91 yards and a touchdown; he finished as the week's WR7 in PPR leagues.

Rice has averaged 0.60 fantasy points per route run this season, the fourth-highest mark among wide receivers. Given that the SMU product has had his four highest route participation rates of the season in the past four weeks, it is no surprise that he is finding his stride. Over that span, Rice has been the PPR WR3 behind just Deebo Samuel and CeeDee Lamb. This rookie has emerged as a great fantasy option.

Rice and the Chiefs will face the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas. Importantly, the Raiders have had the seventh-weakest defense versus WRs over the past five weeks. It will be crucial to see if Rice can extend his recent streak of impressive outings. More specifically, watch if he remains heavily involved in the red zone. He has had 10 targets in that part of the field over the past four weeks, and for the season he ranks second among all wideouts with 20 such targets.

Josh Downs (WR, IND)

Colts rookie receiver Josh Downs has shown flashes of quality production this year. Indeed, in the four-game span between Week 5 and Week 8, Downs was the league's WR11 in PPR formats. During that stretch, he averaged 16.6 points per game and had a five-catch, 125-yard, one-touchdown performance versus Cleveland. Sadly, Downs then became bothered by a knee injury and has not reached those heights since. The rookie from North Carolina has not surpassed 10 PPR points since Week 8.

That fact may change this week, though. Indianapolis's leading receiver Michael Pittman Jr. sustained a massive hit from Steelers defensive back Damontae Kazee last Saturday; although Pittman has cleared the NFL's concussion protocol, he is listed as questionable with a shoulder issue. If Pittman is unable to suit up or is limited in the team's game versus Atlanta, Downs would benefit from a larger target share.

Even if Pittman is available, though, Downs remains a player to watch on Sunday. Despite his lackluster fantasy scoring lately, Downs has been seeing similar usage to his better games earlier this year.  In four games from Week 5 to Week 8, he totaled 132 routes run; in four games since Week 12, he has equaled that mark with 132 routes run. Expect Downs to see more than the measly three targets he has gotten in each of his past two games.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

Tommy Devito (QB, NYG)

Former Illinois quarterback Tommy Devito's rookie campaign got off to a rough start. His first pass attempts came in Week 8 in relief of the injured Tyrod Taylor; he completed just two of seven throws for the loss of a yard. He was able to move the ball better in the subsequent week following a Daniel Jones injury, but the showing still was uninspiring. He threw for 175 yards and a touchdown but also tossed two picks. His first start in Week 10 saw him pass for only 86 yards on 27 attempts, and he also added one more interception.

Over his next three games, though, Tommy Devito became Tommy Cutlets. He threw for three touchdowns and averaged 9.5 yards per attempt in a win over the Commanders in Week 11. Devito acquired his second consecutive win the next week versus New England, and then he led a game-winning drive against Green Bay on Monday Night Football in Week 14. In that game, Devito completed 17 of 21 attempts for 158 yards and a score, and he added another 71 yards on the ground.

The Passing Paisano has shown promise in his appearances. His true passer rating of 102.8 ranks sixth, and he has the third-best production premium among quarterbacks. His 0.48 fantasy points per dropback put him 17th among qualifying QBs; Patrick Mahomes is averaging 0.49 fantasy points per dropback this year. Watch Devito and the Giants against Philadelphia on Christmas Day to see if he can rebound from a disappointing showing versus New Orleans last Sunday.

Aidan O'Connell (QB, LV)

What the Raiders did to the Chargers last week could only be described as a graphic beatdown. Rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell was a large part of the 63-21 demolition. The fourth-rounder out of Purdue completed 20 of 34 attempts for 248 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. All four of the scoring tosses came in the first half as Las Vegas built a 42-0 halftime lead. O'Connell finished as the week's QB3 with 25.92 fantasy points, making it the best performance of his young career.

O'Connell has been an accurate passer for the Raiders. His 6.8 accuracy rating ranks fourth in the league, and his 78.1-percent red zone completion percentage ranks first. He is averaging only 5.6 adjusted yards per attempt, though, and his mark of 0.35 fantasy points per dropback is subpar as well. O'Connell also does not add much as a rusher; he has gained merely 11 yards on the ground this season. Still, O'Connell has been respectable, and his performance last week is something to build on.

Las Vegas faces Kansas City on Monday. In his previous bout versus Kansas City in Week 12, O'Connell completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 248 yards and one touchdown. The Chiefs have been tough versus quarterbacks this year, as they have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position through 15 weeks. Watch to see if O'Connell can carry his momentum from last week into another quality showing despite the difficult matchup.

Parker Washington (WR, JAX)

Over the first 12 weeks of the season, Parker Washington played just 12 offensive snaps and did not see a single target. In Week 13, though, Jaguars wideout Christian Kirk suffered a core muscle injury. This paved the way for Washington to become a contributor. The rookie broke out that week on Monday Night Football with six receptions on six targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. In his next game, Washington had just three targets, but he caught two for 27 yards and another score.

Washington was drafted in the sixth round largely due to a perceived lack of athleticism. He did not run the 40-yard dash at the Scouting Combine, but he does not possess the speed to truly burn defenses. Moreover, Washington's explosiveness is not enough for him to consistently beat defenders out of his breaks. Still, he has great ball skills and is an effective runner after the catch. Washington's arms may be short at just 29 inches, but he can leap up and snatch passes out of the air nonetheless.

Last Sunday, Washington had six targets, but his four catches went for just 12 yards. The Penn State product also had his lowest snap share and fewest routes run since Kirk's injury despite Jacksonville trailing for much of the game. Check out the Jaguars this weekend as they take on the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has yielded the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, so Washington has a bounce-back opportunity here.

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