NFL Rookies to Watch in Week 15: Fantasy Football Dynasty and Redraft Leagues

December 16, 2023

NFL rookie outlooks for fantasy football Week 15 (2023). Hayden looks at promising fantasy rookies at QB, RB, WR, and TE to identify potential sleepers and busts.

As we enter Week 15, the fantasy playoffs have begun in many leagues. The time has come for the pretenders to be eliminated and the contenders to be elevated. The next several weeks will be filled with anxiety and relief, anger and excitement, and heartbreak and jubilation. The stakes are high, so the need to be in tune with fantasy-relevant developments across the NFL is high as well.

One demographic that is always important to watch down the stretch is rookies. Last week was excellent proof of that. Packers first-year wideout Jayden Reed had his best performance of the season with 20.5 PPR points. Bengals rookie RB Chase Brown also made a splash with 105 total yards and a touchdown. Of course, more established options like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Zay Flowers impressed as well.

Whether you are a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I have been breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column is split into two parts: one about players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET)

Between Week 7 and Week 11, Detroit's prized rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs had an incredible stretch of fantasy output. Over that span, Gibbs finished as a top-three RB in each week he appeared. Gibbs averaged 130.5 total yards and scored five touchdowns in those four games. The Alabama product has not quite sustained that production since then, but he has still been turning in quality performances. His most recent was last Sunday when he gained 82 total yards and a touchdown on 14 touches.

The numbers for Gibbs have been remarkable this season. Among running backs, he is fifth in true yards per carry, eighth in yards per touch, and second in breakaway run rate. Moreover, Gibbs is ninth in fantasy points per opportunity, 11th in production premium, and eighth in EPA at his position. It is indisputable that Gibbs has been an efficient back this year, a fact that has helped him produce during the eight games he has played alongside teammate David Montgomery.

Gibbs and the Lions will face the Denver Broncos on Saturday night. The Broncos have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, although that is being skewed somewhat by their early-season woes. Denver has been the 14th-toughest defense against running backs over the past five weeks. Still, Denver has yielded the fifth-most receptions and seventh-most receiving yards to the position this year, playing directly into Gibbs's versatile skill set.

Puka Nacua (WR, LAR)

Rams wideout Puka Nacua has been one of the best rookie stories of the season. A fifth-rounder from BYU, Nacua took the league by storm with 39 receptions for 501 yards in just the first four weeks of the year. While that damage occurred with star teammate Cooper Kupp sidelined, Nacua has still been effective with Kupp in the lineup as well. The rookie has been a top-20 WR in three of the past four weeks, and he has had at least seven targets in every game this season.

Nacua's counting stats are impressive enough with 82 receptions for 1,113 receiving yards on the year, but his efficiency is also solid. Nacua is eighth in yards per route run, largely due to his elite 29.3 percent target rate. Nacua is also ninth among wide receivers with a 13.6-percent juke rate; this has helped him earn 437 yards after the catch so far this season, the seventh-highest figure at his position.

Nacua will be looking to continue his successful rookie campaign with a big showing this week versus the Washington Commanders. Washington has given up the most receiving yards and second-most receiving touchdowns to WRs this year, so he and Kupp should both be able to feast on Sunday. Nacua can be fired up as a WR1 in the most favorable matchup he has left on the schedule this year.

Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)

Like Nacua, Detroit rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has made an immense impact as a rookie. LaPorta is third among all tight ends this season in fantasy points per game, establishing him as an elite fantasy option. The former Iowa Hawkeye is fourth at his position in both receptions and receiving yards, and his six total touchdowns leave him tied with George Kittle and Mark Andrews for the TE lead.

LaPorta is coming off of a season-worst outing, though. He caught merely two of six targets last week for 23 yards; his 4.7 PPR points left him as just the week's WR31. It is hard to be concerned by the performance considering his output the week prior, however. In Week 13, LaPorta caught nine passes for 140 yards and a score, giving him a franchise record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end.

The Lions and the Broncos face off on Saturday in an excellent matchup for LaPorta. The Broncos have yielded the third-most receptions and second-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this year. Moreover, those figures have hardly improved throughout the season, unlike Denver's numbers against running backs. LaPorta is an easy top-five TE option this week for fantasy managers, as he should have no trouble rebounding from his disappointing game in Chicago.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

Will Levis (QB, TEN)

With 238 passing yards and four touchdowns on just 29 attempts, Tennessee rookie quarterback Will Levis dominated Atlanta in his starting debut in Week 8. His hype died down a bit over the ensuing five weeks, though. During that span, Levis had just three passing touchdowns, surpassed 200 passing yards only twice, and exceeded 7.0 yards per attempt once. His best fantasy performance in that stretch saw him put up only 12.52 points.

Last week's Monday night game versus Miami revitalized Levis's stock in a big way. The rookie from Kentucky piled up a career-high 327 passing yards against the Dolphins. He did so on 38 attempts, giving him a figure of 8.6 yards per attempt for the game. Most importantly for Tennessee, Levis helped lead his squad back from a late 27-13 deficit to win 28-27 on the road. The only person more enthused by his outing than his dynasty managers was Levis himself.

Levis has some work to do in certain areas, to be sure. His true passer rating sits at just 69.5 for the year, and his accuracy rating ranks only 31st among qualifying quarterbacks. Given the concerns about his accuracy during the pre-draft process, these numbers should not be overly surprising. However, Levis has had an impressive deep ball; he has the third-best deep ball catchable pass rate in the NFL, and he is first in air yards per attempt. Watch to see how Levis can continue to grow on Sunday versus Houston.

Dontayvion Wicks (WR, GB)

With Christian Watson out with a hamstring injury last Sunday, fifth-round rookie wideout Dontayvion Wicks saw more action than usual. Wicks had a 63.2 percent snap share and a 58.5 percent route participation rate, with both marks being his best since Week 3. He also matched his career-best target figure with six, although he made just two grabs for 20 yards on those. Wicks has had at least four targets in each of his past six games, and he led Green Bay in receiving yards with 91 in Week 11.

While Wicks ran just a 4.62-second 40-yard dash at the Scouting Combine, he makes up for his 25th percentile time in other areas. The rookie showed off his explosion with a 39-inch vertical jump and a 130-inch broad jump. He combines that with a 6'1" frame and 32-inch arms for an 84th percentile catch radius. Wicks's measurables are not the only promising component of his profile, though. He has been averaging 9.4 yards per target in 2023, 19th-best among receivers, and his 49.4 percent route win rate versus man coverage ranks sixth.

With Christian Watson listed as doubtful to suit up this weekend, Wicks should again have extra usage. This is a great week for Wicks to have this opportunity given his matchup versus Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have allowed 2,517 receiving yards to wideouts this season, the third-most in the league. Watch to see if Wicks can put together a career-best stat line on what could be career-best volume.

Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)

Ever since teammate Dawson Knox was placed on injured reserve following Week 7, Dalton Kincaid has been a major factor for the Buffalo Bills. The rookie tight end has had at least five receptions and six targets in each of his last seven games. Kincaid also put together a streak of five straight weeks of being at least the TE7 in PPR leagues between Week 7 and Week 11. Knox's return last week did not affect Kincaid; the latter's snap share and route participation rate were his highest since Week 9.

Some metrics suggest that Kincaid is not the elite dynasty option he is made out to be, however. Kincaid is averaging merely 6.9 yards per target and 8.1 yards per reception. Moreover, he ranks 18th among tight ends with 0.32 fantasy points per route run. Kincaid has undoubtedly been a reliable target for quarterback Josh Allen, though. He has a 96.8 percent true catch rate for the season, the second-highest at his position.

Despite his volume, Kincaid has fallen short of 50 receiving yards in all three of his most recent games. Dynasty managers should monitor his production on Sunday versus Dallas. The Cowboys are allowing the sixth-most yards per reception and 10th-most yards per target to tight ends this season, so this should be a good chance for Kincaid to make some plays. If he continues to fall short efficiency-wise, it may be necessary to re-evaluate Kincaid's dynasty value during the offseason.

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