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As we enter the closing stretch of the season, some rookies have already made their talents apparent. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has wowed observers with 3,540 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and just five interceptions. Rams first-year wideout Puka Nacua has compiled 77 receptions for 1,029 yards and four touchdowns, and Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is among the leaders at his position with 64 catches, 679 yards, and six TDs.
However, many rookies break out in December and January to earn a strong finish to their first NFL campaign. We saw some of this phenomenon last week. Jaguars wideout Parker Washington had not made a catch all season, yet he had six for 61 yards and a score on Monday Night Football. Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet picked up 99 total yards, a career-high mark, and teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a personal-best seven catches. Jonathan Mingo, Tyjae Spears, and Xavier Gipson all impressed as well.
Whether you are a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I have been breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column is split into two parts: one about players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.
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NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
Former Texas running back Bijan Robinson had massive expectations entering the season after being selected with the eighth pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. While fantasy managers have been frustrated at times with the persistence of Robinson's backfield-mate Tyler Allgeier, the rookie has still been very consistent. Outside of one illness-affected outing, Robinson has picked up at least 10 PPR points in each game this year. That includes a 27.3-point explosion in Week 12 for his best performance of the season.
Robinson has put up some quality numbers; he is 10th in true yards per carry at his position, seventh in evaded tackles, and 14th in yards created. Moreover, Robinson is fourth among RBs in targets and second in route participation. Not all of his figures are quite up to par, though. Robinson's EPA of -12.5 is quite poor, and he leads all running backs with five drops. His 0.79 fantasy points per opportunity, which rank him 30th, are also not what fantasy managers hoped for when drafting him in the first round.
Robinson and the Falcons will face the Buccaneers on Sunday. Watch to see if Robinson's volume continues to be as high as it has been recently. While Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson remain involved in the offense, Robinson has 56 rushing attempts over his past three games. By contrast, he had more than 15 just once in his first nine appearances. Robinson is also riding a three-game streak of RB20 or better finishes, the first such stretch of his career.
De'Von Achane (RB, MIA)
Rookie De'Von Achane burst onto the scene in Week 3 in ridiculous fashion. Achane dismantled the Broncos to the tune of 233 total yards and four touchdowns, scoring an absurd 51.3 PPR points. The following week, he gained 120 total yards and scored two touchdowns, and in Week 5 he had 165 yards and one trip to the endzone. Last Sunday, Achane again produced at a high level with 103 total yards and two touchdowns. Excluding an injury-shortened Week 11 performance, Achane has been a top-five RB in each week he has played since Week 3.
Unfortunately, Achane missed a significant portion of the year with a knee injury, so his dominance has been contained to just a handful of games. Still, his efficiency has been ridiculous. Even including two weeks where he barely played, Achane trails just Christian McCaffrey among RBs in fantasy points per game. Achane's fantasy points per opportunity (1.78), yards per touch (9.2), true yards per carry (7.7), and breakaway run rate (14.3 percent) are all mind-boggling.
After averaging 12.3 yards per carry in Weeks 3 through 5, Achane's 4.3 yards per carry last week was somewhat of a letdown despite being a perfectly fine mark. The Dolphins face the Titans on Monday; look to see if Achane can overcome a tough Tennesee run defense to regain the big-play prowess we saw from him earlier this year. Also, make sure to see if Achane can maintain his incredible touchdown-scoring rate. On just 69 touches this year, he has scored nine total touchdowns.
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
The Baltimore Ravens had a bye last week, so the last time we saw Zay Flowers was in Week 12. That game versus the Chargers was a great one for the rookie from Boston College. Flowers finished as the week's WR6 after posting his first multi-TD stat line of his career. The second score was a 37-yard run that put the game away. Flowers also saw eight targets for the first time since Week 6, although those amounted to just five catches for 25 yards.
Flowers has been doing a lot of damage with the ball in his hands. He is fourth among receivers with a 21.2 percent juke rate, and he is 15th in yards after the catch. Also noteworthy is his success before the catch. Flowers is 11th at his position with 195 route wins, and he is 16th with a 53.7 percent route win rate. He is also seventh with an average of 2.28 yards of target separation. Flowers looks like a strong acquisition for Baltimore, for sure.
The Ravens will take on the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. In that game, monitor Flowers's target volume. With star tight end Mark Andrews injured, Baltimore's group of receiving weapons has taken a huge hit. Flowers stepped up as a target for quarterback Lamar Jackson last week; watch to see if that continues. The Rams are near the middle of the pack in receptions and yards allowed to receivers this year, but they have yielded just six receiving touchdowns to the position.
NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues
Bryce Young (QB, CAR)
With C.J. Stroud racking up accomplishments this season, the struggles of the first-overall pick in this year's draft, Bryce Young, have been more pronounced. Young has not scored 10 fantasy points since Week 9, and he has not reached 200 yards passing since Week 8. Young also has more games with multiple interceptions (three) than with multiple passing touchdowns (one). He has shown flashes though, including during last week's game. He had some nice throws to D.J. Chark and Jonathan Mingo, plus a nifty run for a two-point conversion.
Young's statistical profile has been dismal throughout the season. He ranks 31st with a 29.9 QBR, and he is 27th in true passer rating with 75.5. His 5.4 yards per attempt (35th) and 5.7 accuracy rating (32nd) do not inspire confidence either. Still, Carolina has been a team in disarray this season. The team recently fired their head coach, quarterbacks coach, and running backs coach; offensive play-calling duties have changed hands several times as well.
Young will hope to close out the 2023 season with a strong finish. That effort will begin this week in New Orleans. The matchup will be quite a tough one for him; the Saints have allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards in the league this year, and they have posted the second-most interceptions. With this visit to New Orleans likely posing his most difficult matchup remaining, Young will either make a statement or stumble once again.
Aidan O'Connell (QB, LV)
Fourth-round rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell was supposed to spend the season sitting behind Jimmy Garoppolo, but things do not always go according to plan. Garoppolo was benched for O'Connell ahead of Week 9, giving the rookie a chance to lead the team for the remainder of the season. So far, the results have been mediocre. O'Connell has tossed four touchdowns to six interceptions, ranks just 28th in adjusted yards per attempt, and is 26th in true passer rating.
His most recent game was a promising effort, however. O'Connell faced the Chiefs in Week 12 ahead of his team's bye. That week, the Purdue product completed 69.7 percent of his passes, the highest percentage of his career so far (minimum 20 attempts). He also threw for 248 yards on 7.5 yards per attempt, both his second-best marks in the NFL. Moreover, the game marked his career-high in fantasy production, and also the first time where he threw a touchdown without an interception.
The Raiders will host the Minnesota Vikings this weekend. Keep an eye on O'Connell to see if the extra rest during the bye week helps him build upon his performance versus Kansas City. Doing so would boost his dynasty stock as he comes into his own in the NFL. The Vikings are around league average as a matchup. They have allowed the 15th-most passing yards and the 13th-fewest passing touchdowns this season.
Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)
Quentin Johnston has had a very disappointing rookie season for the Los Angeles Chargers. Johnston was a highly-touted first-round pick in this year's draft, yet he is averaging just 4.7 PPR points per game. He has only the 82nd-ranked route participation rate among receivers, and he is merely 83rd in target share. Despite teammates Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer suffering significant injuries, Johnston has been unable to make a sizable impact.
The rookie from TCU is averaging only 0.20 fantasy points per route run, placing him 91st among wideouts. His mark of 1.28 fantasy points per target also ranks 91st. Johnston is coming off of one of his best games of the year, however. He caught five passes on seven targets for 52 yards last week, with both his target and yardage figures setting new career highs. Still, he was widely panned for a drop in the third quarter that left onlookers baffled and damaged the optics of his performance.
Fantasy managers have been concerned with Johnston's output this season. They will be wishing to see more out of him on Sunday versus Denver. He will have to overcome the matchup; the Broncos have surrendered the fourth-fewest receptions to opposing wideouts this year. For dynasty managers, it will be crucial for Johnston to finish the season well. With Palmer due to return from injured reserve soon, now is the time for Johnston to show his talents.
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