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Quite a few first-year players have already made strong impacts as professionals. The wide receivers in particular have been impressive. New Orleans Saints wideout Chris Olave is ninth at his position in receiving yards through four weeks. Atlanta's Drake London has also produced at a high level, accumulating 18 catches for 231 yards and two scores.
Dameon Pierce may have been the top rookie performer last week. Pierce, an RB for Houston, carried the ball 14 times for 131 yards, good for a 9.4 YPC average. He also tacked on a touchdown, as well as six catches for eight yards, to really make his fantasy managers happy. Pierce was the RB5 in PPR formats.
Whether you're a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I will be breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column will be split into two parts: one pertaining to players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.
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NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues
Brian Robinson (RB, WAS)
Few rookies have had more difficult starts to their NFL careers than Brian Robinson had this offseason. Robinson, a third-round draft choice out of Alabama, was impressing observers throughout training camp before being shot twice as the victim of an attempted carjacking. Thankfully, his injuries were non-life-threatening, but the wounds in his leg forced him to miss a significant chunk of time early in the season. Robinson has recently demonstrated a remarkable return, though; six weeks after the incident, he is practicing with a chance to play on Sunday versus Tennessee.
At 6’2”, the rookie is tall for a running back, and his 4.53-second 40-yard dash time is quite impressive at that size. Indeed, his speed score is at the 85th percentile; it’s important to note, though, that he has just a seventh-percentile burst score. Robinson did not stand out at Alabama until his fifth season with the Crimson Tide, but that was largely due to how stacked the RB rooms have been down in Tuscaloosa. In 2021, he tallied 1,639 scrimmage yards and 16 total touchdowns before entering the draft.
Robinson’s profile is a mixed bag of both positives and negatives, but our most recent updates have been very favorable. He was reportedly outplaying starter Antonio Gibson in training camp prior to being sidelined. The Commanders certainly won’t rush him back to a full workload before he’s completely healed, but his first few games will be vital in determining how viable he will be for the rest of the season as a fantasy option. The Titans have been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, so there’s a strong chance Robinson could impress on low volume this week. If that occurs, the hype train will start right back up for the rookie.
Christian Watson (WR, GB)
Christian Watson epitomized Green Bay’s offensive struggles in Week 1 when he dropped a wide-open deep pass from quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Since then, Watson has been overshadowed by fellow rookie Romeo Doubs in Green Bay. Whereas Doubs has made 19 catches for 184 yards and two scores, Watson has seen just 10 targets all season. His 51 receiving yards on six catches are quite paltry, especially considering that he was taken nearly 100 picks before Doubs in this year’s NFL Draft.
Watson’s stat line so far may make you wonder why he was drafted 34th overall. The primary reason was his immense athleticism. He stands at 6’4” and 208 pounds while running a 4.36-second 40-yard dash, making for an absurd size-speed combination. Moreover, his burst is at the 95th percentile for wideouts, and his catch radius is at the 97th percentile. His numbers at North Dakota State weren’t too shabby either; he averaged 20.4 yards per reception and had a 44 percent college dominator, good for the 90th percentile.
Watson’s involvement in the offense should grow as he bolsters his rapport with Rodgers. It’s interesting that Green Bay has used him on the ground a few times, including one instance last week that went for a 15-yard score.
TAKE A LAMBEAU LEAP, @ChristianW2017!#NEvsGB | #GoPackGo
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/kUb8Hd5fG8
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 2, 2022
Perhaps the team will give him increased opportunities on passing plays given the skills he’s shown on limited touches. Watson’s game in London versus the Giants this Sunday is a great opportunity for him to break out, as the Giants have been somewhat poor at defending receivers this season.
Skyy Moore (WR, KC)
When the Kansas City Chiefs dealt star wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins in March, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was deprived of a very versatile weapon. As soon as Kansas City selected Skyy Moore out of Western Michigan in the second round in April, he suddenly gained a fresh young player to work with. The Skyy Moore hype swelled immediately given his landing spot in a high-powered offense, but thus far, he has not delivered. The rookie has made just three catches for 61 yards all season.
With a 4.41-second 40-yard dash, Moore is clearly quick, but not quite at Hill levels of speed. The rest of his athletic profile doesn’t really stand out, but his college production sure did. Moore made 95 catches for 1,292 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. His 44.8 percent college dominator was at the 91st percentile, and his absurd 39.5 percent target share was at the 99th. There were concerns about the quality of his competition, though, considering schools like Kent State and Ohio are not defensive powerhouses.
Moore is in a weird state of limbo at the moment. He has been disappointing enough to be droppable in most redraft formats, and yet there’s a lingering sense that he could break out at any time. Mahomes has been spreading the wealth this season, as Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have all been solid options. Like Watson, Moore's involvement should increase as the season progresses, but his ceiling may be capped given the target competition in Kansas City. Monday's game versus Las Vegas is another chance for the rookie to impress.
NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues
Kenny Pickett (QB, PIT)
For the first time this season, I can write about a quarterback in this column. Due to Mitchell Trubisky's poor showing against the Jets last Sunday, Kenny Pickett entered the game to try to give the offense a spark. Now he's been named the starting passer moving forward. His debut was largely one to forget, considering he threw three picks on just 13 pass attempts. With that said, he did flash his talent, including on a tight pass to George Pickens. His accuracy has been lauded by scouts, and it resulted in him being the first quarterback taken this past April.
Kenny Pickett to George Pickens 🎯
That sounds nice to say, doesn’t it? pic.twitter.com/zJHNYmhnjR
— PFF PIT Steelers (@PFF_Steelers) October 2, 2022
Pickett hasn't played enough snaps to draw too many conclusions from his short pro career so far. Something that was interesting to note last week was that he carried the ball six times for 15 yards, including two short touchdown runs. Fantasy managers don't need a quarterback to be Lamar Jackson to benefit from their rushing production. Indeed, Pickett ran a 75th-percentile 40-yard dash among QBs at this year's Scouting Combine, so that may be an underrated aspect of his game.
This week's matchup with Buffalo is simply brutal for Pickett. Some experienced quarterbacks, like Matthew Stafford and Ryan Tannehill, have imploded against the Bills already this year. This Sunday's game is more for scouting Pickett's traits and ability to grow as a passer. While the recent success of young QBs has spoiled fantasy managers, development often takes time. Dynasty managers should be watching closely to determine how they should be evaluating Pickett's long-term outlook.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
Kansas City running back Isiah Pacheco has been very hit-or-miss this season. His professional debut was a strong one; he carried the ball 12 times for 62 yards and a TD, finishing as the RB21 in half-PPR formats. His next two outings were very underwhelming, however. Against the Chargers, the rookie had just two carries for six yards; against the Colts, he had three carries for nine yards. This was not the level of production that those who hyped him up all offseason were expecting.
Of course, just as the buzz around Pacheco was starting to die down, he bounced back with an 11-carry, 63-yard performance versus Tampa Bay last weekend. His efficiency was notable because the Buccaneers have a strong defense. Nonetheless, starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 19 carries for 92 yards and a score in his own rebound game. For as long as CEH continues to put up quality numbers, it will prove difficult for Pacheco to make up ground in the backfield pecking order.
Sign of development from Isiah Pacheco.
He waits and reads the blocks. Once he sees the lane, he makes a jump cut to the outside and uses his acceleration to close the gap between him and the final level of the defense. pic.twitter.com/srbb5oTbhS
— Zack Eisen (@zackeisen21) October 4, 2022
Pacheco will face a fairly average Las Vegas defensive unit on Monday. The key thing to watch is his snap share. He needs to be reaching at least the marks he attained in Weeks 1 and 4 (around 25 percent) in order to be worth considering moving forward. With two games in this realm and two below ten percent, it's anyone's guess how Pacheco will be used for the rest of the season. The two games in which he underperformed were Kansas City's closest two games to this point; this is an idea to consider.
David Bell (WR, CLE)
David Bell was quietly more involved in the offense last week versus Atlanta than he had been previously. Granted, he saw just three targets, but that was an increase from the two he'd had on the season through three weeks. He may have played just 19 snaps on the day, but the rise in targets and catches (two for 35 yards) was encouraging. Bell himself expressed similar thoughts, stating that with each passing game, his confidence grows with the additional experience.
Bell was a star player for the Purdue Boilermakers. In 29 games in West Lafayette, Bell gathered 2,946 receiving yards for an astonishing average of 101.6 yards per game. Those yards came on 232 catches, 21 of which went for touchdowns. His relatively low figure of 12.7 yards per catch was tied to his biggest weakness, though: his lack of elite athleticism. His speed score is at just the 35th percentile for WRs, and his agility score is at the eighth.
Bell plays sound, smart football, but that can only take you so far in the NFL without the physical traits to go with it. Can it take Bell far enough for him to be good for dynasty managers? His game with the Chargers this week will be one indicator. His usage should be low once again, but watching how many targets he gets while he's on the field is important. As a third-round draft pick, Bell's development will be interesting to track.
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