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NFL rookie outlooks for fantasy football Week 17 (2022). Hayden looks at promising fantasy rookies at QB, RB, and WR to identify potential sleepers and busts.
As we reach many fantasy leagues' championships, several rookies have achieved impressive stat lines. Last week, Commanders first-year wideout Jahan Dotson played well, totaling 19.6 PPR points despite the team's loss to the 49ers. Bills rookie RB James Cook also stood out, accumulating a career-high 99 yards on the ground on just 11 carries.
Other top rookie performers in Week 16 included 49ers QB Brock Purdy, Steelers WR George Pickens, Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier, and Buccaneers RB Rachaad White. White and Pickens started the year on many fantasy rosters, but Allgeier and Purdy were waiver-wire additions in lots of leagues. Managers who foresaw their contributions are reaping the benefits in the fantasy playoffs.
Clearly, whether you're a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I am breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column is split into two parts: one pertaining to players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.
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NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WAS)
Commanders rookie RB Brian Robinson Jr. had been on a nice streak of efficient performances before last week. In Week 12, he carried the ball 18 times for 105 yards, good for an average of 5.8 yards per carry. A week later, Robinson had 21 attempts for 96 yards, enough for a 4.6 YPC mark. After Washington's bye week in Week 14, Robinson continued to perform well, tallying 89 yards on 12 carries and setting a career-high with 7.4 YPC. Given that he averaged just 3.35 YPC in his first seven games, this stretch was a welcome sight.
Brian Robinson is RELENTLESS 😤
📺: #NYGvsWAS on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/BooZSZJZF4 pic.twitter.com/7zPUEXI5TA— NFL (@NFL) December 19, 2022
Unfortunately, Robinson was unable to find the same success last week against San Francisco. Despite toting the ball 22 times, his highest number of carries since Week 10, Robinson only managed to gain 58 yards. His average of 2.6 yards per attempt was actually his lowest such figure out of his nine outings with at least 10 carries. In each of his previous four games, Robinson had averaged at least 2.0 yards before contact per attempt; that number fell to 1.2 for him last week.
It will be vital to see if Robinson can regroup this week in a more favorable matchup against the Cleveland Browns. San Francisco's defense has allowed just 3.3 yards per rush attempt to opponents this year, the fewest in the league; by contrast, Cleveland is surrendering the seventh-most yards per carry this season. Robinson should find more space to work with than last week and perform as he had previously but watch his game on Sunday to confirm this.
Tyler Allgeier (RB, ATL)
Falcons first-year running back Tyler Allgeier is coming off of the best two-game stretch of his young career. In Week 15, Allgeier gained 139 yards on 17 carries against the Saints, setting new career highs in both categories. He followed that strong showing up by gaining over 100 scrimmage yards again in Week 16, this time with 74 rushing yards and 43 receiving yards. He also re-broke his career high in carries with 18. The BYU product is cooking as the season nears its conclusion.
Tyler Allgeier is different
📺 FOX || NFL+ pic.twitter.com/TlgP3eLFzj
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 24, 2022
Notably, Allgeier also set a new personal best with a 61.8 percent snap share last week. The game marked the fourth time in Allgeier's last six appearances that he has out-snapped his teammate Cordarrelle Patterson. He also saw five targets for the first time this year, catching four. This increased involvement in the passing game is encouraging for fantasy managers; Allgeier has just 16 targets on the year, 59th among RBs.
When the Falcons take on the Cardinals on Sunday, watch if Allgeier once again is more involved in the offense than Patterson. The Falcons have the third-most rushing attempts per game this year, so this development of Allgeier earning a larger role in the backfield is massive. Moreover, see if Allgeier remains active through the air. Just 12 percent of his PPR points come from receptions, so he has room for growth in this area.
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
Jets rookie wideout Garrett Wilson has had an excellent campaign this year. He is the WR18 in PPR formats, and he has the 14th-most receiving yards among all wide receivers. However, his production has been very dependent on his quarterback. The former Ohio State Buckeye has averaged just 8.6 PPR points per game when Zach Wilson leads the offense; with either Joe Flacco or Mike White at the helm, that average rises to 19.3 PPR points per game.
3rd and 12
Mike White has made these throws in recent weeks. Zach Wilson has not.
Garrett Wilson knows. pic.twitter.com/1x0bWMjvQs
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 18, 2022
Thankfully, White will be starting at quarterback for the Jets this week after recovering from the rib injury that sidelined him the past two games. Wilson has been productive in particular when White is the one throwing the passes; in three such games, Wilson finished inside the top-10 wideouts for the week on two occasions. That includes a 15-target, 162-yard performance in Week 13 against the Vikings. In the three-week stretch when White started, Wilson was the WR4.
The Jets are in Seattle this week to face the Seahawks. The Seahawks have allowed the third-fewest receptions and yards to opposing wideouts this season, so the matchup is formidable. Still, Wilson should be able to shake off last week's disappointing WR64 finish and rebound with White under center. It will be interesting to see if the rapport between the QB-WR duo picks up where it left off when White went down; many fantasy managers are counting on it.
NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues
Kenny Pickett (QB, PIT)
Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett was the only passer selected in the first round of this April's draft. A big reason for that was the excellent accuracy that he displayed on his throws in college. Some of that precision has translated to the NFL as well. Although Pickett's QBR is just 24th among qualifying quarterbacks and his true passer rating is an awful 46.9, his accuracy rating is 12th-best in the league. He has the third-highest catchable pass rate in the NFL at 82.0 percent, and his deep ball and pressured completion percentages are both in the top 10.
an absolute dime by Kenny Pickett
— Billy Heyen (@BillyHeyen) December 25, 2022
There are certainly many negative aspects of Pickett's play so far, though. For one, his accuracy generally falters in the red zone; his completion percentage in that area is just 28th in the league. Moreover, he takes too many risks, leading to a league-leading 35 interceptable passes. Pickett averages only 0.38 fantasy points per dropback and 4.9 adjusted yards per attempt as well. Still, it's important to acknowledge the good parts of Pickett's performances in the midst of the bad.
Pickett will hope to carry the momentum he gained from his game-winning drive last week into this Sunday's contest against Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the ninth-most passing yards in the NFL this year, so he'll have a chance to produce. The last time these two teams played, Pickett was removed from the game after just one pass attempt because he sustained a concussion. Watch to see if he can elevate his play and limit his mistakes this week, especially in the red zone.
Jahan Dotson (WR, WAS)
Commanders rookie receiver Jahan Dotson has been excellent over the past four weeks. Dotson missed five consecutive mid-season games with an injury and struggled for three more weeks upon his return, but he now is playing some quality football. In Week 13, he had five catches on nine targets for 54 yards and a score. In Week 15, after his bye week, he made four grabs for 105 yards and a touchdown, and last week he caught six passes for 76 yards and another TD. He was a top-20 receiver in each of those three weeks.
.@JahanDotson with the score‼️
📺 #WASvsSF CBS pic.twitter.com/WyK5XUcDoO
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 24, 2022
Dotson has been adept at finding the endzone. Despite being 82nd among receivers in receptions, he is 11th in total touchdowns with seven. This is a double-edged sword; on one hand, scoring many touchdowns is great for fantasy managers, but on the other, touchdown regression can be a big concern in dynasty leagues. A remarkable 37 percent of Dotson's PPR points are from his receiving touchdowns. The next highest percentage out of WRs with at least 100 PPR points is Christian Watson's 29 percent.
Dynasty managers are hoping that Dotson can establish that he is not touchdown-dependent over the final weeks of the season. He is already off to a good start in that regard with his recent stretch. The endeavor will continue this week against the Cleveland Browns. If Dotson sees nine targets as he has in two of his past three games, he will produce a quality stat line regardless of if he finds paydirt. Pay attention to how Dotson gets his fantasy points this Sunday.
Romeo Doubs (WR, GB)
Packers wideout Romeo Doubs had an up-and-down start to his rookie season. Through the year's first nine weeks, Doubs had three weeks inside the league's top 25 receivers in PPR formats. In the other six, he was outside the top 50. Sadly, Doubs missed the team's next four games with an ankle injury, but he made his return in Week 15 against the Rams. In his two games post-injury, he has totaled eight catches on 11 targets for 91 yards.
Everything about this rep is beautiful from a rookie wideout. @RomeoDoubs 👀 pic.twitter.com/3L8YcmkJkc
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) December 25, 2022
Doubs's snap share has not yet returned to where it was before he got hurt. Doubs was consistently playing over 80 percent of the Packers' offensive snaps each game before exiting their Week 9 matchup early. Now, his two most recent snap shares were 37.5 percent and 62.9 percent. One reason for this difference is likely the emergence of rookie teammate Christian Watson; Watson's involvement immediately surged when Doubs was sidelined, and he made the most of it with his strong play.
Watson suffered a hip injury last week, though, and did not re-enter the contest. He is currently listed as questionable to suit up on Sunday in a crucial game versus Minnesota and was limited in his return to practice on Friday. If Watson is unable to participate, Doubs will be the primary beneficiary. Check out the Packers this weekend to see if Doubs can put together a great game and regain his previous role in the offense.
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