NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 14) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

December 4, 2025

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season. Week 13 delivered from start to finish, beginning with an incredible Thanksgiving slate that saw all three underdogs pull off upsets. The surprises rolled into Black Friday as the Bears dominated the Eagles, and culminated on Sunday with arguably the most surprising result of the season, as the Panthers took down the Rams as 10-point underdogs.

Looking ahead to Week 14, there are seven teams whose playoff odds will swing by at least 25% with a win or loss, according to Evan Kaplan of ESPN. Key games to monitor include Dallas at Detroit on Thursday night, Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Houston at Kansas City, and Indianapolis at Jacksonville, with the Colts' odds falling significantly with a loss.

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 14.

Week 14 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.

14 - Seattle at Atlanta

Seattle continues to destroy teams despite not being great on the offensive side of the ball. It averaged just 3.5 yards per play with two turnovers last week against Minnesota, yet won 26-0 because Max Brosmer and the Vikings offense were inept.

It marked just the fourth game in Stathead's history in which a team won by 26 points or more with those offensive outputs, with all three other games coming during the 1960s. Atlanta, meanwhile, lost to the Tyrod Taylor-led Jets last week, and it's dangerous to think about what this Seattle defense could do against Kirk Cousins this week.

13 - Los Angeles Rams at Arizona

The Rams are coming off one of the most surprising results of the season, with a loss to the Carolina Panthers as 10-point favorites. Sean McVay and the team should be able to bounce back this week against a Cardinals team on a four-game losing streak.

Sean McVay rejects the idea that the Rams underestimated Panthers pic.twitter.com/l04KxXZ9o1

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 30, 2025

These teams will face off twice in the next five games, with the Cardinals being one of five teams to already be eliminated from playoff contention, while the Rams need to keep pace to secure home-field advantage in the playoffs.

12 - Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans

Baker Mayfield wound up starting last week after some doubt during the week as he managed a left shoulder injury. He led the Bucs to a win over Arizona, while New Orleans nearly pulled off a miraculous win in Miami last week, but fell short. Mayfield is 5-1 versus the Saints since joining Tampa Bay in 2023.

The Saints defense has been scrappy, however, allowing under 200 yards passing in three straight games and in eight of 12 games this season, which is tied for the third most in the league.

11 - Denver at Las Vegas

Denver has plenty of public doubters, but it is a good team that has found ways to win games. It got everything it wanted from the Marcus Mariota-led Commanders last week in a 27-26 overtime win. The Raiders look lifeless on the other side. However, the last time these teams faced off in Week 10 on Thursday Night Football, the Broncos narrowly won 10-7 in one of the ugliest games of the year.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 14 Pick 'Em Pools

10 - Green Bay vs. Chicago

A pivotal matchup in the NFC North between the Bears and Packers is America's Game of the Week in Week 14. The Bears, despite owning a 9-3 record atop the NFC, rate as the 19th-best team in the league by DVOA, but had their most impressive win of the season in Week 13 as they bullied the Philadelphia Eagles.

“This is a huge rivalry and a game that means a lot to a lot of people. I think Ben understood that coming in and taking the job.”

The Bears and Ben Johnson are looking forward to facing the Packers 💪 pic.twitter.com/Ffge2DD4GB

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) December 1, 2025

The 8-3-1 Packers are also coming off a statement win over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, and as 6.5-point favorites at Lambeau, they'll be looking to avenge their home Week 18 loss last season. And this is the time of year when Jordan Love plays his best football. For his career, he's thrown 16 touchdowns to one interception during December.

9 - Buffalo vs. Cincinnati

This will be the fourth time Joe Burrow and Josh Allen have faced off. It's officially the third meeting, with their first game in Week 17 of the 2022 season being suspended due to Damar Hamlin's cardiac arrest. Burrow and the Bengals have won both prior meetings, including a dominant 27-10 win in the 2022 Divisional Round.

Turning the focus to Buffalo. pic.twitter.com/5SRpyA1Is4

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) December 2, 2025

Burrow returned last week against the Ravens on Thanksgiving night and was a bit rusty with his lowest completion percentage in a game since Week 1 of the 2023 season.

He shook off some of that rust in the second half on the way to a 32-14 victory to stay alive in the AFC North. The Bengals defense forced five turnovers against Baltimore and will likely need a few to keep up with the Bills' dominant rushing attack.

8 - Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh

Both teams sit at 6-6 after losses last week and are tied atop the AFC North. Baltimore's offense doesn't have the same juice with a banged-up Lamar Jackson, while the Steelers hit close to rock bottom last week against the Bills, which sparked some "Fire Tomlin" chants from the Pittsburgh faithful.

#Steelers HC Mike Tomlin, asked about the boos and “Fire Tomlin” chants:

“I share their frustration.” pic.twitter.com/wRKSwRGGnP

— Alan Saunders (@ASaunders_PGH) December 1, 2025

Mike Tomlin thrives as an underdog, however, and these games between Pittsburgh and Baltimore are almost always close, with last year being an exception as the Ravens won by 14 and 17 points, respectively.

Pittsburgh's odds to make the playoffs would spike to 65% with a win and fall to 18% with a loss, while Baltimore's chances would climb to 76% with a win and drop to 31% with a loss.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 14

7 - Cleveland vs. Tennessee

This will be the first matchup of the season between two rookie quarterbacks, with Cameron Ward versus Shedeur Sanders. The total for this game is currently set at 33.5, which is the lowest of any game so far this season, according to KillerSports.com.

The Browns defense is one of the best in the league, tied with the Broncos for the best success rate (38.5%). Sanders has a 28.9% success rate during his limited action, by far the lowest of any quarterback with at least 75 plays this season, per RBSDM.com. The next closest is Dillon Gabriel at 35.4%.

6 - Miami at New York Jets

Miami escaped with a victory last week against New Orleans despite a brutal game from Tua Tagovailoa, who completed just 12 passes. It's his second start this season with 12 completions and over 20 pass attempts, trailing only Ward from the Titans, who has three such games.

Meanwhile, the Jets earned their third win of the year last week against Atlanta on a walk-off 56-yard field goal by Nick Folk. Despite the poor record, the Jets own the fourth-best special teams unit by DVOA through 12 games since 1978.

5 - Washington at Minnesota

Max Brosmer outdid J.J. McCarthy last week against the Seattle Seahawks. Minnesota finished with a 20% offensive success rate, the second lowest of any offensive performance this season, with Brosmer throwing four interceptions and taking four sacks.

However, McCarthy is expected to return for Week 14 against Washington, where he will hopefully face off against fellow 2024 quarterback classmate Jayden Daniels (elbow).

Washington showed a lot of fight in last week's overtime loss to the Denver Broncos. The defense is still bad, but the offense moved the ball better than any team against Denver's elite defense. It's been a lost season filled with injuries, but it is getting healthier and will look to finish out the season on a high note.

4 - Philadelphia at Los Angeles Chargers

The big story heading into this game is Justin Herbert's health. Herbert had surgery on Monday to repair a fracture in his left hand, and while he didn't practice on Wednesday, the plan is for him to start on Monday night against the Eagles.

Meanwhile, things have started to unravel a bit in Philadelphia after getting thoroughly outplayed by the Bears on Black Friday. They still rate as a borderline top-10 team by DVOA, but the offense is close to unwatchable at times.

Kevin Patullo was asked about the incident at his house

Responds by saying what a great sports town Philly is, how amazing the fans are and that criticism comes with the job

Also mentions it crosses the line when it involves his family

Full answer: pic.twitter.com/RB0rHvbRIG

— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) December 3, 2025

3 - Indianapolis at Jacksonville

The Colts haven't beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville since 2014. They're now tied with Jacksonville for first in the AFC South at 8-4, with the surging Texans right behind them at 7-5.

Indianapolis still profiles as one of the best teams in the league, ranking third behind the Seahawks and Rams in total DVOA despite dropping two coin-flip-type games in the past two weeks. The Colts' playoff hopes are suddenly in question, as a loss would decrease their odds to 58% while a win would solidify their chances at 88%.

Trevor Lawrence, despite some turnover issues, is playing well on a down-to-down basis since Jacksonville's Week 8 bye. He ranks fourth in passing success rate (52.1%) in that time. These teams face each other twice in the next four weeks, with still a lot to be sorted out in the AFC playoff picture.

2 - Dallas at Detroit

This will be the first time these two teams face off on Thursday Night Football, a week after playing on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys look like one of the best teams in football after knocking off the two teams in last year's Super Bowl in four days, while the Lions feel like they are trending in the opposite direction.

Detroit is dealing with multiple key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, with star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and right tackle Penei Sewell (shoulder) listed as questionable. The defense, meanwhile, has gotten shredded in the past two weeks and has another stiff test against an elite Dallas offensive unit.

Dallas' chances to make the playoffs would jump to 35% with a win and fall to just 8% with a loss, while Detroit's odds range from 23% with a loss up to 58% with a victory.

1 - Kansas City vs. Houston

We get a beautiful matchup on Sunday Night Football featuring a rematch of last season's AFC Divisional Round matchup. C.J. Stroud returned from his three-game absence last week and helped lead the Texans to their fourth straight win. Houston's defense is a nightmare to go against, and it quietly feels like the Texans may be the most complete team in the AFC.

#Texans coach DeMeco Ryans on #Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes 'Patrick is still Patrick' @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/yqKBVetGwa

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 3, 2025

The Chiefs are in must-win mode to keep their playoff hopes alive. Patrick Mahomes is as great as ever, but the supporting cast has let him down.

Kansas City's odds to make the playoffs swing up to 56% with a win on Sunday night, but crater all the way down to 14% with a loss. Houston, on the other hand, moves from 37% to 76% depending on the result.

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