RADIO
Welcome to the Week 17 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Sunday's main slate and I hunt for value plays that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
We have another intriguing late-season main slate on tap Sunday, with teams across the league having varying levels of incentive. However, we still have plenty of attractive value options at each position, including some that are benefiting from expanded roles due to attrition on their teams.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Jared Goff, DET vs. CHI | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $30
Goff came through handsomely as a value suggestion in Week 16, and with his salaries rising only marginally, he's right back in play Sunday in a game that could have one of the more intriguing DFS environments of the week. The Bears-Lions clash carries a projected total of as high as 52 points as of Friday, with Detroit actually implied for a slate-high 29 points. Goff posted a solid 14.8 DK/FD/Yahoo points against the Bears in the first meeting at Soldier Field, but the rematch takes place at offense-friendly Ford Field, where he's put up 22.9 DK/21.3 FD/ 20.7 Yahoo points per contest.
Chicago checks into Sunday's contest allowing an elevated 12.1 yards per completion over the last three games, along with an NFC-high 71.7 percent completion rate on the road. The Bears have been a good ball-hawking defense (13 interceptions), but they've also been one of the league's worst at applying pressure, notching an NFL-low 18 sacks. Goff should therefore have plenty of opportunity to sit back and scan the field while operating with a fully healthy pass-catching corps, giving him a chance to build on what is already an impressive 67.0 percent expected completion percentage.
Mike White, NYJ at SEA | DK: $5,400, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $29
White has been cleared to return to action from his rib injury on Sunday, and he'll step right back into what is essentially a make-or-break situation for New York's playoff hopes. The surging quarterback had been very impressive over three starts before his injury, throwing for 952 yards in that trio of contests while averaging 20.3 DK/18.3 FD/17.7 Yahoo points per game. White now gets to come back to a more favorable matchup than his most recent one – he faced the Bills on the road in Week 14 – as the Seahawks have allowed 10.6 yards per completion, including 11.4 over the last three games.
Seattle has allowed a 64.6 percent completion rate overall while ranking in the bottom half of the league with 22 touchdown passes surrendered. The Seahawks have conceded 18.3 DK/17.4 FD points per game to quarterbacks, and White checks in with a 68.1 percent completion rate, 583 yards and a 3:0 TD:INT over the 72 pass attempts he's made in outdoor settings thus far. With the Jets fighting for their postseason lives and sporting a healthy receiving corps, White is in play at his salaries.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Brock Purdy, SF at LVR | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $29; Russell Wilson, DEN at KC | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $25
Running Back DFS Value Plays
AJ Dillon, GB vs. MIN | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $20
The Packers have as high as a 26-point implied total for Sunday's key divisional clash, and Dillon's backfield mate Aaron Jones is heading into Friday with a questionable tag due to knee and ankle injuries. While Jones could very well suit up, Dillon is certainly a candidate for his fair share of touches and also typically enjoys a big red-zone role. The third-year back has also encouragingly been more involved in the passing game recently, posting an 11-97 line through the air on 13 targets over his last four games.
Dillon now draws an intriguing matchup against a Vikings team that's been much more giving against the run on the road and against which he posted 91 total yards and a rushing touchdown on 15 touches back in Week 1. The Vikes check in allowing 132.2 rushing yards per game at 4.7 yards per carry on the road. They also sport a mediocre No. 23 ranking in Football Outsiders' Power run defense category, which measures a defense's ability to stop short-yardage runs from resulting in a first down or touchdown. That bodes well for Dillon, who's logged 26 red-zone touches in 15 games and gains 63% of his yards after first contact.
Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. ARI | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $20
Allgeier never seems to carry very high rostering rates, yet he could make for a very rewarding play in tournaments. The rookie has seen an expanded role in the last two games, parlaying his explosiveness into a 35-213-1 tally on the ground and a 5-40 line through the air in that span. Those numbers have led to averages of 19.6 DK/16.9 FD and Yahoo points, and Allgeier is now averaging 4.9 yards per carry thanks in large part to an elite 20.5 percent broken-tackle rate and an average of 3.3 yards per carry after first contact.
Alllgeier now faces a Cards squad allowing 4.7 RB yards per carry and sporting bottom-10 ranks in both second-level and open-field yards allowed. Arizona has also been more vulnerable to the run of late, giving up 128.7 rushing yards per contest in the last three games. What's more, the Cardinals have surrendered a robust 89-694-5 line through the air to running backs, and they've yielded 16 red-zone rushing touchdowns. In turn, Allgeier has 27 red-zone touches in 14 games, including seven in the last pair of contests alone.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Miles Sanders, PHI vs. NO | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $25
DK-only Specials: Travis Etienne, JAC at HOU | $6,400 / Cam Akers, LAR at LAC | $6,100
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Garrett Wilson, NYJ at SEA | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $16
Wilson's stellar rookie season now sees him just four yards short of 1,000 for the season, and despite a quiet Week 16, the fleet-footed rookie gets Mike White back under center for Sunday's key interconference clash. Wilson posted a 19-335-2 line over the three games White started at quarterback in Weeks 12-14, averaging an outstanding 4.2 yards per route run in that span.
Wilson also encouragingly logged six red-zone targets in that sample, a number that could bode well for his prospects at very reasonable salaries against a Seattle team that's given up 14 red-zone passing touchdowns. He also has several other encouraging metrics in his favor, including an average of 80 air yards per contest, and 28.1%/23.4% shares of the Jets' air yards and targets, respectively. Moreover, Wilson has at least eight targets in four of the last five, furthering his case.
Marquise Brown, ARI at ATL | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $16
Brown makes for an intriguing value to run in conjunction with Allgeier if doing a bit of Cardinals-Falcons game stacking, and the speedster certainly carries plenty of appeal at such reasonable salaries. Brown's upside naturally takes a bit of a hit with David Blough at quarterback instead of Kyler Murray, but Brown did encouragingly draw eight targets in the one full game McCoy and him played together in Week 14. Brown's speed should also play well against a Falcons team that's been vulnerable to some long plays through the air and surrendered an elevated 13.8 yards per completion in the last three games, along with 17 red-zone passing touchdowns.
The only regular-season sample size of any appreciable length we have on Blough is from 2019, when he threw for 984 yards over five games and completed 10 passes of 20+ yards, including four of 40+ yards. Therefore, the fourth-year signal-caller isn't without the ability to push the ball downfield a bit and could focus heavily on Brown with DeAndre Hopkins already ruled out with a knee injury. Brown is already laying claim to just under 26% of the Cardinals' air yards and averaged 10.7 targets per game when Hopkins was suspended for the first six games of the season, adding to his appeal in this spot.
Allen Lazard, GB vs. MIN | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $15
Lazard's position mate Christian Watson has missed the first two practices of Week 17 prep with the hip injury that robbed him of the second half of the Week 16 win against the Dolphins on Christmas Day, and Lazard is already a strong play irrespective of his teammate's availability against a vulnerable Vikings secondary. Lazard drew 11 targets versus Miami partly due to Watson's absence, and Minnesota checks in having allowed an NFC-high 283.7 passing yards per game on the road, along with 11.6 yards per completion in that split. The Packers are also implied for just under 26 points, one of the highest totals of the slate.
Minnesota has given up an NFL-high 3,065 receiving yards to wideouts, along with the most receptions to the position of any team that's played 15 games (231). The Vikes have yielded 13 touchdowns to WRs as well, and Lazard has a solid 15 red-zone targets in 13 games. Finally, consider Lazard's 12.3-yard aDOT, 1.74 yards per route run and near-30% share of the Packers' targets all make him even more appealing at his salaries, as does the fact over 25% of his catches have gone for 20+ yards.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Drake London, ATL vs. ARI | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $16
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Cole Kmet, CHI at DET | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $17
Kmet has been quiet in recent games, which may certainly contribute to him being less rostered than earlier in the season. However, the talented tight end could surprise at his salaries, considering he's facing a vulnerable Lions pass defense and is doing so on the fast track of Ford Field. Additionally, despite the overall lack of splash plays in recent weeks, Kmet is still commanding plenty of attention, logging five targets in every game from Week 5 onward.
It's also worth noting one of those games came against Detroit, a Week 10 clash at Soldier Field where he posted a 4-74-2 line on seven targets that netted 23.4 DK/21.4 FD and Yahoo points. The Lions come in allowing an NFL-high 290.1 passing yards per home game as well, along with the second-highest yards per completion (11.8) in that split. Then, Detroit has also yielded a 72-804-10 line to tight ends on the season, the latter figure tying for an NFL high, and has surrendered 18 red-zone passing TDs overall.
Evan Engram, JAC at HOU | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $19
Engram is going to be a hot commodity at his salaries after forging a 26-337-2 line on 33 targets across the last three games. Engram is averaging an elite 3.3 yards per route run during that span, averaging 25.9 DK/ 19.6 FD and Yahoo points per game along the way. The veteran, who also boasts a career-low 3.3% drop rate this season, is also in a very favorable spot against a Texans team he posted a 6-69 line against on 10 targets back in a Week 5 home clash.
Houston has given up a 73-799-5 line to tight ends on the season overall while playing wide receivers much tougher (70.9% catch rate allowed to TEs, compared to 63.4% to WRs), funneling more action toward Engram's position. The Texans are also surrendering a robust 11.0 yards per completion overall, while Engram is averaging the second-highest average yards per target (7.9) of his career and is sporting a career-high average of 6.6 yards after the catch.
ALSO CONSIDER: Darren Waller, LVR vs. SF | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,500, Yahoo: $17
DK-Yahoo Special: George Kittle, SF at LVR | DK: $5,900, Yahoo: $20
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