New York Jets Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

July 23, 2024

Rob's 2024 fantasy football team preview for the New York Jets. Read about fantasy football values, sleepers, rookies, and starters at QB, RB, WR, and TE.

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the New York Jets as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

This is do-or-die mode for the New York Jets. They need the 2024 season to be what they expected the 2023 season to be. They get a redo with the injury to Aaron Rodgers, but time is running out. Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett are both on the hot seat. On paper, the Jets' roster is one of the best in the NFL. However, there is some risk along the offensive line and, of course, the quarterback position. The Super Bowl is in play if everyone can stay healthy and play at their potential. If not, things could go south really quickly.

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Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Aaron Rodgers: QB20, ADP 124

Rodgers will return this season after a torn Achilles he suffered in the first quarter of last year's first game. Expectations for the Jets’ team are sky-high. They have one of the best on-paper rosters in the NFL. However, there is plenty of risk that comes along with it. Their offensive line features two tackles who are both 33 years old. Tyron Smith has struggled with injuries recently and hasn’t played 14 or more games in a season since 2015. The franchise drafted Olu Fashanu, a tackle out of Penn State, in the first round for some insurance, but Smith and right tackle Morgan Moses must stay healthy this season.

They also have some depth concerns at receiver, where 29-year-old Mike Williams is coming off a torn ACL injury. Behind him, the team only has Xavier Gipson (2023 undrafted free agent), Jason Brownlee (2023 undrafted free agent), Allen Lazard, and Malachi Corley (2024 third-rounder). Outside of star receiver Garrett Wilson, there are many question marks at receiver.

If Smith, Moses, and Williams are healthy and play at the level they’re capable of playing at, Rodgers could be a steal. Things could get a bit more complicated if one or two of them get hurt or suffer an age-related decline in their performance. It doesn’t help fantasy managers that he wasn't very good the last time we saw Rodgers.

However, that was back in 2022, before the Packers became loaded with pass-catchers. That was before Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft. Rodgers was throwing to Lazard, the rookie versions of Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson. Not only that, but Doubs missed essentially missed six games. He played just one offensive snap before exiting and missed the next four games. He played just 32% of the snaps when he returned from his four-game absence. There were also two other games where he only played 37% and 38% of the snaps.

Watson missed three complete games and played under 40% of the snaps in six other contests. Rodgers dealt with a broken thumb on his throwing hand early in the season. Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Randall Cobb, A.J. Dillon, Sammy Watkins, Josiah Deguara, Samori Toure, and Amari Rodgers combined for 315 targets in 2022. So, when you look at Rodgers’ down 2022 season, take it with a grain of salt. He had very little help and was playing with a broken thumb.

In the past two seasons, the Jets have combined for 1,228 pass attempts, which is the fifth-most in the NFL over that time. Some of that is influenced by their dreadful win-loss record the past two years and having to play catch up. However, in 2023, in a neutral game script, the Jets still passed the ball 58.7% of the time, which was the ninth-highest in the NFL. They chose to do that with Zach Wilson under center. What’s going to happen when it’s Aaron Rodgers? Conventional wisdom says Rodgers might decrease the passing volume because they’ll win more games. However, they might get even more aggressive in neutral game scripts with a competent quarterback.

Rodgers offers nothing as a rusher anymore, so the passing volume will be critical. If we’re going to depend on a quarterback with zero rushing value, he needs volume. There seems to be a good argument that he’ll have more volume in New York than in Green Bay. In 2022 and 2023, the Jets cleared 600 pass attempts. From 2019-2022, Rodgers averaged 542 pass attempts per season, and his highest was 569.

Rodgers finished as the QB23 in 2022 with a 14.9 PPG average. However, as previously discussed, several factors were working against him. In 2021, he was the QB6 with a 21.5 PPG average.  Before that, he was the QB5 in 2020 with a 24.1 PPG and was the QB15 in 2019 with a 17.5 PPG average. From 2019-2021, Rodgers finished as the QB15, QB5, and QB6. He did this with Nathaniel Hackett as his offensive coordinator, who holds the same position in New York. He did this on just 542 pass attempts per season, which is far less than he’ll have in New York. Granted, he did have Davante Adams, but Wilson could make the jump to elite status with better quarterback play.

Rodgers’ No. 2 and 3 targets in 2019 were running back Aaron Jones and tight end Jimmy Graham. Breece Hall and Tyler Conklin certainly compare. In 2020, his No. 2 and 3 targets were Aaron Jones and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Breece Hall and Mike Williams say hello. The following season, his No. 2 and 3 targets Aaron Jones and Allen Lazard. See what I’m getting at? The Jets’ offensive structure is no different than what he had in Green Bay.

Due to Rodgers’ age and coming off a significant injury, it’s fair for fantasy managers to be cautious. The depth of the quarterback position also makes it difficult for Rodgers to be ranked too much higher than he already is, making his price fair. However, at QB20, Rodgers can outplay his current ADP if Wilson is as good as we believe. If the offensive line holds up and Williams can play at 100% for 12 games, Rodgers could be a good value late in drafts.

Verdict: Fair Price on Aaron Rodgers (good value)

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Breece Hall: RB3, ADP 7
Braelon Allen: RB58, ADP 179

It feels like blasphemy to even entertain the idea of someone else finishing as the No. 1 overall running back other than Christian McCaffrey. Still, Hall certainly has the talent and opportunity to do it. The upgrade at quarterback and the offensive line is massive. Going from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers is significant.

Football is a team sport, but no position drives a team’s offensive success like a quarterback. Even in a down 2022 season with questionable talent around him, Rodgers still led an offense that had 54 red zone attempts and they scored on 52% of them. In 2022, the Jets had 46 red zone attempts and scored on just 43.5%. This past season, the Jets had just 37 red zone attempts and scored on 32.4% of them. Rodgers will have a massively positive impact on many aspects of their offense, but none may be more significant than their red zone opportunities.

As for the offensive line, the Jets finished 31st in PFF’s final offensive line rankings for the 2023 season. Not surprisingly, Hall had 55 stuffed runs and a stuffed run rate of 24.7%. Almost a quarter of his rush attempts were ruined before even reaching the line of scrimmage. The dreadful quarterback play and the lack of help from his offensive line did not stop Hall from dominating.

Breece Hall's 2 seasons have come behind...

the #30 (2022) and #29 (2023) OL in run block win rate

the #31 (2022) and #31 (2023) OL in injury rate

and the worst collective QB room in the NFL

he's torn his ACL & meniscus & rehabbed + hamstring & ankle injuries

yet...

he…

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 11, 2024

He finished with 1,585 scrimmage yards, second-best among running backs. He accomplished that despite having just the seventh-most touches. Hall was one of the most efficient running backs in the league last season. He finished with a 5.3-yard per touch average, 11th-highest. He also broke a tackle once every 11.7 rushing attempts, the 14th-best rate. His juke rate was 25.8%, the fifth-highest, and he evaded 77 tackles, the most among any running back. He created 3.90 yards per touch, the 10th-best, and registered a breakaway run rate of 4.9%, the 14th-highest. He was tied for eighth in yards after contact per attempt at 2.2.

Hall’s excellence also carried over to the receiving part of the game. He averaged 6.2 yards per target (ninth-best), 8.5 yards after the catch per reception (16th), 7.6 broken tackles per reception (18th), 7.8 yards per reception (12th), and 1.74 yards per route run (3rd). Simply put, Hall can do it all, and he did despite an awful supporting cast in 2023. His receiving role gives Hall the kind of upside to finish as "the" RB1.

Only six RBs with min. 100 touches averaged 3.0+ yards after contact per attempt and per reception:

- De'Von Achane
- Jaleel McLaughlin
- James Conner
- Breece Hall
- Raheem Mostert
- David Montgomery pic.twitter.com/aViHLVF3QT

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) July 6, 2024

Last year, he finished with 95 targets (first among running backs), 76 receptions (first among running backs), and 591 (first among running backs). Rodgers is just the guy who will continue this trend. In 2022, the Packers, behind Rodgers, gave their running backs 116 targets and a 20.6% target share. In 2021, the Packers' running backs combined for 106 targets and had a 17.9% target share. The Packers' running backs combined for 115 in 2020 and a 21.9% target share.

It was more of the same in 2020 when Green Bay's running backs had 117 targets on 573 attempts to finish with a 20.4% target share. From 2019-2022, with Rodgers at the helm and Hackett calling plays, the Packers' running backs had 454 total targets on 2,255 attempts. They had a 20.1% target share. With the Jets' lacking quality and dependable targets behind Wilson, it wouldn't be surprising to see Hall finish as the Jets' No. 2 receiver, just like Aaron Jones did all those years with Rodgers at the helm.

In Weeks 1-7 last season, Hall averaged 12.1 half-PPR PPG on just a 47% snap share. He was coming off his torn ACL injury in 2022. From Weeks 8-17, his snap share increased to 65% as the team started to lean on Hall more and more. During this stretch, his scoring increased to 15.2 half-PPR PPG. Looking forward to 2024, it shouldn't be surprising if his snap share increases even further this season; with it, his PPG should also follow with a sizable increase. Hall is now two years removed from his injury, and being fully, 100% healthy could take Hall's game to levels we have not yet seen at the NFL level.

While Hall will be an old-school workhorse back, Braelon Allen seems to have earned the No. 2 role behind him. Allen won't have much weekly value as long as Hall is healthy. However, if Allen were to get hurt or miss any time, he would be the most likely beneficiary. Allen had 596 carries and 3,482 rushing yards in his three years at Wisconsin. He also scored 35 rushing touchdowns. Allen is a monster, checking in at around 240 pounds, so if Hall were to miss time, Allen has the size and strength to be a three-down back.

“In my mind, the top of the depth chart is clear: No. 1 is Hall, No. 2 is fourth-round pick Braelon Allen.

Allen physically looks the part as a tall, strong runner, but he might be a bigger factor in the passing game than anyone expected. He made one of the best catches of OTAs,… https://t.co/EcyrhxutUc

— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) June 14, 2024

Hall's ADP is right where it should be. It's a fair price, but there's room for Hall to outperform his current ADP. He has the talent, the role, and the environment to unseat Christian McCaffrey as "the" RB1. CMC competes for targets with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Bijan Robinson is competing for targets with Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but outside of Wilson, Hall is likely the Jets' No. 2 target earner, and that role in any PPR league could catapult him to the top spot. Allen's ADP is also a reasonable price, considering his contingency value in the event of a Hall injury.

Verdict: Buy Breece Hall, Fair Price on Braelon Allen

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

Garrett Wilson: WR8, ADP 11
Mike Williams: WR57, ADP133
Malachi Corley: WR81, ADP 203

Wilson is a stud, and we'll get to that in a bit, but we're going to start with his quarterback play in New York because that's been the biggest thing holding him back. Zach Wilson and various other fill-ins have held Wilson back. While Wilson has the talent of a top-1o receiver, he's been unable even to approach that level of play because his quarterback play has been so dreadful. Below is a table that takes Rodgers’ worst statistical season in each passing category and compares that to the Jets’ QB room last year. Now, we get a glimpse at the kind of upgrade the very worst Aaron Rodgers has to offer. This should be fun.

As you can see, even if the Jets are getting the worst version of Rodgers, it still means 714 more yards and 14 more touchdowns. I want to emphasize that last part: 14 more touchdowns. For all the pass-catchers in New York, that is huge. Now, let’s assume that Rodgers can perform at a career-average rate. What would his season look like with the Jets' passing volume from 2023 compared to what the Jets got out of the quarterback position?

We’re talking about 36 more completions, 1,255 more yards, and an absolutely ridiculous 26 more touchdowns. Think about that! Honestly, think about that. It's insane. 1,255 more passing yards and 26 more passing touchdowns with an average Aaron Rodgers. Even if you want to say Rodgers is 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles, he won't play like his career average. He's not going to be that good. 2022 was one of the worst versions of Rodgers we've seen in a long time. Again, he played with a broken thumb on his throwing hand and had little help. Still, let's say Rodgers has the same efficiency stats in 2024 as he did in 2022. How different would Rodgers look compared to what the Jets had last year at quarterback on the same volume?

We're still talking about 714 more yards and 18 more touchdowns. It can be hard to comprehend just how big of a difference Rodgers, almost any version of Rodgers, is compared to what Wilson has been dealing with the past two seasons. Last year, Wilson's expected half-PPR PPG average was 13.9, which ranked ninth-highest. However, his 10.3 half-PPR PPG ranked as the WR36. His negative 3.6 half-PPR PPG difference between his expected and actual PPG difference was the second-worst among receivers and the worst among receivers with at least 100 targets.

Highest team pass rates inside the 10-yard line

If this continues to be the approach in New York, why can't Garrett Wilson lead the league in TDs? pic.twitter.com/yYbpOcTOCP

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 26, 2024

Last year, Wilson had a 46% air-yard share, first among receivers. He was ninth in target share (27.2%) and fifth in first-read target share (37.2%). The tweet above shows just how pass-heavy the Jets were inside the 10-yard line. Those numbers indicate what kind of upside Wilson possesses if the quarterback play improves. Wilson has the potential to break through and finish as a top-five receiver. That potential is there. Wilson is a buy for fantasy managers this season, but is there any value for the other Jets' receivers?

Fantasy managers often associate Mike Williams with being injury-prone. However, from 2018-2022, Williams played in 75 out of 82 games. Sure, he's been knocked out of a game or two here and there, but so has every other player. Unfortunately, Williams tore his ACL in the third game of last season. Reports indicate he should be ready for the start of the 2024 season. Based on the depth chart in New York, Williams should be viewed as the clear No. 2 receiver. Wilson is widely expected to be the target hog for the Jets, but that's okay; Williams doesn't need a lot of targets to be a difference-maker for fantasy managers.

Why you should draft Mike Williams at a WR57 ADP:

+ 3 straight top-24 finishes in half-PPR PPG
+ Clear path to No. 2 WR job
+ Just 29 years old
+ 10% career TD rate
+ Aaron Rodgers career 6.2% TD rate

Why you shouldn't draft Williams:

- September 2023 ACL tear (?)

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) July 4, 2024

Over the past three years, Williams has averaged 7.75 targets, 4.94 receptions, 71.56 yards, and 0.44 touchdowns per game. His per-game averages since 2021 equate to 132 targets, 84 receptions, 1,217 yards, and 7.5 touchdowns over 17 games. For fantasy football, Williams has finished as a top-12 receiver in 31% of his games and a top-24 receiver in 16%. He's a boom-or-bust receiver, finishing as a WR3 or worse in 53% of his contests, but with a positional ADP of WR57, he's being drafted as a backend WR5.

Fantasy managers only to invest a 12th-round pick on a receiver who has finished as a top-24 WR in half-PPR PPG in each of the last three seasons. He's shown the ability to provide fantasy managers with plenty of week-winning scores. That upside, given the minimal investment required, is enticing. Fantasy managers should prefer Williams over Romeo Doubs, Khalil Shakir, and some other receivers going ahead of him. For that reason, Williams is a good buy this offseason.

Over Corley's final two seasons at Western Kentucky, he had 252 targets, 180 receptions, 2,267 yards, and 22 touchdowns. He averaged a ridiculous 9.2 yards after the catch per reception. In both seasons, he had a yard-per-route run average higher than 2.65. He ran over 87% of his routes from the slot. He fits very well with Wilson and Williams. However, it's not given that he'll be the full-time starting slot receiver. Xavier Gipson showed some potential in his rookie season and he's got a year under his belt. Meanwhile, Corley will be attempting to make the leap from Western Kentucky to the NFL. That won't be easy; it could take a year or two to figure it out.

With Williams's injury concerns and the lack of talent at the tight end, Corley has the upside if he can adjust to the pro game more quickly than expected. His price tag is virtually free, and because of that, there's no good reason not to take a few dart throws at Corley. Williams could fall off a cliff with his injury and him approaching 30. That risk is baked into his price, but Corley can outplay his positional ADP if it does happen.

Verdict: Buy Garrett Wilson, Buy Mike Williams, Fair Price Malachi Corley

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

Tyler Conklin: TE20, ADP 167

Conklin has the ninth-most targets, eighth-most receptions, and 10th-most receiving yards among all tight ends. Sure, his receiving yards per game average drops him to 17th among 37 tight ends with at least 70 targets, but even that is significantly better than his current ADP suggests. Certainly, when he considers who his quarterback has primarily been, the lack of fantasy production begins to make sense. There have been 45 quarterbacks to attempt at least 300 passes since 2022. Here's where Zach Wilson ranks in just a few statistical categories out of those 45:

• 45th Completion Percentage (57.9%)
• 26th in Interception Rate (2.3%)
• 43rd in TD Rate (2.3%)
• 33rd in Yards Per Attempt (6.5)
• 37th in Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (5.9)
• 34th in Yards Per Game (188.5)
• 33rd in On-Target Rate (73.4%)
• 39th in Off-Target Rate (19.4%)
• 44th in Quarterback Rating (75.4)
• 44th in Success Rate (37.0%)
• 41st in Sack Rate (10.16%)
• Since 2022, the Jets have the second-fewest passing touchdowns in the league with 26.
• Since 2022, the Jets have the 10th-fewest passing yards in the league with 7,413.

The Jets will welcome back Aaron Rodgers this season. The difference between Rodgers and what the Jets have trotted out there at quarterback the past two seasons is going to be substantial, and quite honestly, that may not even be doing it enough justice. Rodgers' career completion percentage is 65.3%, 7.4 percentage points higher than Wilson's last two seasons. His 6.2% career touchdown rate is almost triple that of Wilson's. His career yard-per-attempt average is 1.2 yards better. His quarterback rating is 28.2 points higher. I mean, the difference is vast.

Remember where Conklin ranked the past two seasons in targets, receptions, and yards among tight ends? Top 10 in all three categories. Well, he's tied for 41st in touchdowns with three. He's tied with Jimmy Graham. Since 2022, Conklin has the 19th-highest full-PPR PPG average at 7.49 among 37 tight ends with at least 70 targets.

Imagine if he catches a few more touchdowns. What if Rodgers leads to Conklin getting just a few more receptions and yards? That really should be the expectation, which makes it very likely Conklin can outplay his current TE24 ADP. Now, that won't make him a league winner. He won't be a top-12 tight end, but could he be a solid TE2? That's in his range of outcomes.

Certainly, the Jets have added increased competition with Mike Williams in free agency and third-round rookie Malachi Corley. However, Williams is coming off a torn ACL and has recently struggled to stay on the field. It's possible, maybe even likely, that Williams isn't ready for the beginning of the season. Corley is a third-round rookie out of Western Kentucky and will transition to a significant increase in talent competition. There's no guarantee either player is ready to produce consistently this season. If either or both falters, Conklin could provide a nice positive return on investment for fantasy managers.

Verdict: Buy Tyler Conklin

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