Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

July 25, 2024

Rob's 2024 fantasy football team preview for the Buffalo Bills. Read about fantasy football values, sleepers, rookies, and starters at QB, RB, WR, and TE.

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Buffalo Bills as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

The duo of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs has been among the best in the NFL over the past few years. It's what has driven the Bills offense. With Diggs now in Houston, the Buffalo offense will look significantly different this season. It also permanently hired offensive coordinator Joe Brady to the same position for the 2024 season. Buffalo's pass and run splits took a big turn when he took over late last season. While Diggs is often made to be the scapegoat, fantasy managers are likely underestimating the offensive coordinator change. This will be something, especially with the loss of a top-10 receiver, that fantasy managers will need to consider regarding what they should expect from Buffalo's offense this season.

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Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Josh Allen: QB1, ADP 16

Allen's fantasy value remained unchanged with the offensive coordinator change, but that isn't because the offense stayed the same. The offense changed significantly so, especially the passing game. The passing volume decreased significantly, and the efficiency of the passing game was also reduced. Allen's rushing prowess carried his fantasy value with the offensive coordinator change, but his exploits through the air were minimized compared to what we expect from him. Some fantasy managers may completely charge Diggs with this. In my opinion, that's silly. The whole offense changed when Brady took over. Take a look at Allen's passing stats below.

In 10 games with Dorsey, Allen failed to go over 200 yards passing twice. With Brady, in just nine games, Allen failed to finish with 200 passing yards three times, with a fourth game where he had just 203 passing yards. In 10 games with Dorsey, Allen did not have a single game with fewer than 25 pass attempts. With Brady, in nine games, he had two. With Dorsey as offensive coordinator, Allen had two or more passing touchdowns in 60% of his games. With Brady, that fell to just 44%.

With Josh Allen at QB, the Bills had posted four-straight seasons with over 60% of total team touchdowns coming through the air.

In 2023, that rate fell to 54%.

During Joe Brady's tenure: 46%

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 29, 2024

In 10 games with Dorsey, the Bills' neutral game script pass rate was 60.4%. That fell to 49.9% under Brady. When the Ken Dorsey-led Buffalo Bills got inside the 10-yard line, they passed the ball 42.9% of the time and 55% inside the 20-yard line. With the Joe Brady-led Bills, they passed the ball 36.7% of the time inside the 10-yard line and 38.4% inside the 20-yard line. Those numbers, especially when you factor in the question marks at receiver, should have fantasy managers at the very least raising an eyebrow.

Ken Dorsey offenses:
(2022 Bills and 10 games of the 2023 Bills)

- 60.4% situation-neutral pass rate
- 54 passing TDs
- 27 rushing TDs
- 50% red zone pass rate

Joe Brady offenses:
(2020-21 Panthers and 7 games of 2023 Bills)

- 55.6% situation-neutral pass rate
- 36 passing TDs…

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 3, 2024

That may all look concerning, and it is to some extent. The flip side is that we're working from a relatively small sample with Brady on the Bills. Buffalo ran 99 red-zone plays under Brady, which is also a small sample. However, it's something to be aware of, especially with Brady's history as an offensive coordinator in Carolina. The positive side to this was Allen's rushing utilization under Brady. Allen had 15 designed red-zone rushes in seven regular-season games under Joe Brady. Despite the decline in passing volume under Brady, Allen's fantasy value stayed incredibly strong. It even improved! Allen averaged 23.6 PPG in Weeks 1-10 under Dorsey, which increased under Brady to 26.7 PPG. How did that happen?

Allen had 83 carries, 424 yards, and 11 (!!!) rushing touchdowns in nine games under Brady. He had 48 carries, 246 rushing yards, and seven touchdowns in 10 games with Dorsey. The rushing touchdowns were not random, either. The stats explain how he scored that many touchdowns and why it predicts future success. In Weeks 1-10, Allen handled 23.8% of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line. For the rest of the season under Brady, Allen handled 68.8% (!!!) of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line. These are great indicators of fantasy success! From Weeks 11-18, Allen was a QB1 in 86% of his games, scoring over 22 points or more in six out of seven games. From Weeks 1-10, Allen finished as a QB1 in 70% of his games and scored 22 or more points in seven out of 10 games.

Josh Allen's designed red zone rushing with Joe Brady calling plays 🚀🚀🚀

(This is from one of the 32 team previews that I'm creating over the month of July for @FFToday Newsletter readers - link in bio!) pic.twitter.com/FDCMoyx4hy

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 5, 2024

Rushing remains a fantasy cheat code for quarterbacks, and Allen's rushing stats greatly improved under Brady. He was more utilized as a rushing weapon once the team got into the red zone. While Brady and the changes at receiver could negatively impact Allen's passing stats, his increase in rushing stats could more than make up the difference, as we saw just last season. Josh Allen is still Josh Allen. He's shown us multiple times that he can be a difference-maker with his arm or legs. He can do it all, and there's little reason to expect anything else this season.

Verdict: Fair Price on Josh Allen

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

James Cook: RB14, ADP 47
Ray Davis: RB53, ADP 165

Cook was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the offensive coordinator change. Under Dorsey, Cook was just an RB3 for the first 10 games of the season and many of the concerns some fantasy managers had entering the season were evident. Some felt that Cook couldn't be trusted to handle a true workhorse role and that his smaller frame would lead to a lack of scoring opportunities near the goal line.

Under Dorsey, Cook handled just 14.3% of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line and just 25% inside the 10-yard line. The offensive coordinator change didn't alter Cook's scoring opportunities too much. For the nine games under Brady, Cook handled just 12.5% of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line and 27.3% of the team's carries inside the 10-yard line. However, there were other areas where the offensive coordinator switch greatly benefited Cook, as you can see below.

For nine games under Brady, Cook went from handling just 14.4 touches per game to having 20.1 touches per game. That added volume helped increase his half-PPR PPG average, but the area in which Cook's game went to the next level was in the receiving game. He increased his target share from 8.0% to 11.7% and his targets per route run from 17% to 27%. His yards per route run average increased from 1.35 under Dorsey to 1.89 under Brady. Cook became a much bigger part of the passing game under Brady. Since Cook doesn't score very often, that is crucial for his fantasy football value.

Josh Allen in 2023:

Under Ken Dorsey: 9.6% check down rate
Under Joe Brady: 12% check down rate
#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/ccgGAKyHst

— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) June 18, 2024

As discussed earlier, Josh Allen was used significantly more in the running game once the team got inside the red zone. This will continue to hold Cook back and stop him from reaching an elite tier of fantasy football running backs. He has scored just nine touchdowns on 391 touches in his two years in the NFL.

Given how little he's used in the red zone, fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting that to change. Last year, he finished 10th in total touches with 281 but still ranked 22nd in red-zone touches with 38. Unfortunately, the closer the team got to the goal line, the fewer touches Cook saw.

However, that doesn't mean Cook cannot be a valuable fantasy asset. As discussed, Cook averaged 14.1 half-PPR PPG during his nine games under Joe Brady. Looking at the half-PPR PPG averages of all running backs from Weeks 1-17 last season, 14.1 would have finished as the RB9 ahead of Rachaad White and Breece Hall. Considering Cook's lack of involvement near the end zone, his current positional ADP is a fair price. Without the touchdowns, it's hard to argue for Cook to be ranked in the top 12.

James Cook's splits with Joe Brady have been all the rage lately (and for good reason) but there is more than meets the eye...

James Cook BEFORE Joe Brady at OC
(Weeks 1-10)
• 54% of team rushing attempts
• 56% of snaps
• 48% routes run
• 8% target share
• 14% target per…

— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) December 20, 2023

Ray Davis was drafted late in the fourth round of this year's draft. While Cook is only 190 pounds, Davis is much bigger, weighing 215. That size could help lead to Davis, not Cook, getting more goal-line touches -- the ones that do not go to Josh Allen, anyway.

Davis was a fifth-year collegiate player, starting his career at Temple. Davis had 193 carries, 936 yards, and eight touchdowns in his freshman season. It was an impressive first year. However, he struggled to stay healthy in Year 2, playing just four games. That led to him transferring to Vanderbilt, where he played just three games in his first season as a junior. In his second season with Vanderbilt, he finished with 1,042 yards on 232 yards with five touchdowns. He transferred a second time, this time to Kentucky, and he started there as a fifth-year senior. He had the best season of his college career, finishing with 1,129 yards and 14 touchdowns on 199 carries.

Davis may struggle to provide fantasy managers with any week-to-week value. Buffalo may use Davis in specific situations, such as between-the-tackle runs and short-yardage situations. Those generally are not fantasy-friendly touches. With Allen, Davis's touchdown upside is limited. Davis may limit Cook's upside more than he'll provide weekly value. Buffalo may use Davis around the goal line instead of Cook. However, Allen should still be considered the team's preferred goal-line "running back."

Davis possesses a lot of contingency value. If Cook were injured, fantasy managers should expect Davis to get into a heavy workload. He's one of the cheaper handcuffs, but Allen caps his upside based on the assumption that he's unlikely to provide the same pass-catching ability that Cook will provide fantasy managers. However, even if Cook were to miss games, Davis's rank would still climb inside the top 30.

Both Cook and Davis are fair prices, but given Cook's significant touchdown problem, fantasy managers may be wise to sell him at his price slightly. He's not cheap, and it's hard to envision him significantly outplaying his ADP. Based on his play under Brady, RB14 is fair, but the lack of upside makes him a player to be a bit weary about.

Verdict: Fair Price on James Cook (slight sell), Fair Price on Ray Davis

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

Keon Coleman: WR46, ADP 101
Curtis Samuel: WR50, ADP 114
Khalil Shakir: WR53, ADP 122
Chase Claypool: WR108, ADP 285

Many people say that vacated targets aren't real, that they don't exist. I don't think anyone thinks of vacated targets with the mindset that, "Oh, Stefon Diggs had 160 targets, and Keon Coleman was drafted to replace him, so now he'll have 160 targets, too." No one thinks of vacated targets in that manner. Vacated targets are used to identify opportunities.

Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Trent Sherfield, and Deonte Harty combined to have 284 targets, 178 receptions, 2,165 yards, and 17 touchdowns. They also combined to have 61 red-zone targets and 27 end-zone targets. We are talking about an incredible amount of opportunity. That doesn't necessarily mean all that potential will come to fruition for Coleman or any of them, but the potential is there.

When both were on the field at Florida State in 2023:

Targets
68 — Johnny Wilson
48 — Keon Coleman

Receiving yards
584 — Wilson
304 — Coleman

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 14, 2024

We'll get started here with Coleman. As you can see from the tweet above, teammate Johnny Wilson was the more productive player last year at Florida State. However, in 2022, when Coleman and second-round pick Jayden Reed were on the field at Michigan State, Coleman out-targeted Reed, 76 to 71. Coleman also finished with more receiving yards than Reed when they were both on the field, 657 to 568. In three seasons, Coleman finished with a 1.87 yards per route run average. He averaged 2.07 yards per route run his sophomore season with Michigan State, and that dipped to 1.74 this past season at Florida State. However, the quarterback's injury and inefficiency certainly played a large part.

While Coleman ran 95% of his routes out wide at Michigan State, that number dipped to 69% at Florida State. The Seminoles used Coleman much more in the slot, where he had almost 30% of his routes. Based on film analysis from Reception Perception, the slot position might be best for him at the next level. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had this to say about Coleman:

"While it’s tempting to want to throw a big wideout with a large catch radius like Coleman out at X-receiver, it’s a riskier proposition than ever in today’s NFL. Guys who don’t get open at X do not sustain long stretches of consistent play. And the lack of separation against man and press coverage is a real issue for Coleman. His 62.7% success rate vs. man coverage isn’t disaster-level, it’s a good deal below the prospect average. The 55.2% success rate vs. press is the more troubling, both in terms of where it ranks in the historic database and the limitations it puts on his projection. You cannot find a single quality starting X-receiver in the NFL right now who struggles to win against press coverage. That player does not exist.  On the positive side, his 80.2% success rate vs. zone coverage is a solid mark at the 59th percentile. Coleman showed a great understanding of working himself open against zone on in-breaking routes like the post, dig and slant. All those are critical routes on the tree for a receiver operating on the inside. The reason I keep mentioning this big slot transition is not just that I think Coleman specifically translates well to that position, it’s also one of the few ways a player with these success rates can find success as a long-term productive starter."

As you can see above, Coleman has some weaknesses in his game, but where he does shine is after the catch. If Buffalo utilizes him like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Rashee Rice, Coleman could have a very successful season. Coleman could be in for a rough season if he's used more like Treylon Burks or Quentin Johnston. Things get a little concerning here because Shakir ran 77% of his routes from the slot, Samuel ran 70% of his routes from the slot in Washington, and Kincaid ran 60% of his routes from the slot. Based on those numbers, we already know something has to be given. Fantasy managers may not see Coleman in his ideal position as much as they'd like his rookie season.

Shakir is six foot even and 190 pounds. Samuel is 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds. Coleman, on the other hand, is 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds. Going off size, it seems unlikely the Bills would feature Coleman in the slot more than these two other players. That'll be a steep learning curve for Coleman, and it could make him a very boom-or-bust type of player as a rookie. All of that can be true, but we're still talking about a second-round receiver who is likely walking into a full-time role catching passes from Josh Allen with an ambiguous group of pass-catchers.

Predicting who will be the No. 2 target-earner (assuming Kincaid is No. 1) is anyone's guess, and that potential brings immense upside. There are elements of Coleman's game that have question marks, and there are things he does well. His role, in terms of playing time and route share, appears secure, but it may not be where his skills are best utilized. All of that is baked into his price at WR46, where he's being taken at the Round 9/10 turn. It's a fair price for a rookie in this offense.

There's some appeal to Samuel, but at this stage of his career, he probably is who he is. In seven seasons in the NFL, Samuel has just one season with 100 or more targets, although he does have three others with 90 or more. Two of them came in 2022 and 2023. Below is a table of Samuel's stats from his four best seasons. You can often see a lot of similarities between three different seasons across any one statistic. Regarding half-PPR PPG and WR rank, 2020 stands as an outlier. That's important because in 2020, while in Carolina, Joe Brady was the Panthers offensive coordinator.

It's important to note that his quarterbacks from the four seasons above were Kyle Allen (2019), Teddy Bridgewater (2020), Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke (2022), and Sam Howell (2023). In that regard, Allen will be a massive upgrade. However, Samuel will be 28 years old and entering his eighth season in the NFL, and fantasy managers rarely see breakout seasons that are too late in a player's career. Samuel has never registered a 20% target share and has only once been over 18.0%. He's only once averaged more than 40 yards per game and has just one season with a half-PPR PPG average higher than 9.5. There are some pretty clear limitations and ceiling outcomes associated with Samuel.

Shakir, Coleman, and Kincaid are all younger than Samuel and could outplay him for playing time and routes. Samuel has some upside, but a lot of that is being driven by his one season under Brady four years ago. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect Samuel to finish any higher than a WR3. That limited ceiling caps his value. While he might be a good bet to outplay his positional ADP of WR50, the question becomes whether he will do so in a manner that impacts winning. Based on his career, the answer is probably not. Because of that, Samuel's price is fair and isn't entirely out of the ballpark, but he's still a slight sell because of that limited upside. Receivers such as Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer, Brandin Cooks, Josh Downs, and even Jerry Jeudy might have higher ceilings.

Shakir is entering his third season as a former fifth-round pick. He had 20 targets, 10 receptions, and 161 yards as a rookie. He took a solid step forward in Year 2, finishing with 45 targets, 39 receptions, 611 yards, and two touchdowns. He caught 86.7% of his passes with an 8.9 average target depth. Since 2018, Shakir is the only receiver in the NFL to have posted an 85% or better catch rate on 35 targets with at least an average depth of target of 8.5. That tells me regression is coming. Thirty-five targets is a really small sample and still no one has done that. It's not a red flag, but it's something not to get too caught up on.

Because of his high catch rate, Shakir's yards per target average of 13.6 also looks incredible, but his catch rate inflates that. However, it isn't all bad or gimmicky. Shakir did have a 1.93 yards per route run average, ranking 33rd among receivers. However, he also posted just a 14.2% targets per route run rate. Granted, Stefon Diggs was in town, but that's still a really low number and it'll be hard to get past that, especially with Coleman drafted, Samuel signed, and Kincaid entering his second season.

He averaged just 5.3 half-PPR PPG last year. However, there was a clear switch in his roles in Week 8. From Weeks 1-7, his route rate was often at or below 20%. From Weeks 8-18, his route participation rate was above 65% in every contest and eclipsed 80% multiple times. Despite the increase in routes, Shakir's half-PPR PPG average increased to just 7.6. From Week 8 through the Bills' loss in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, Shakir had 506 yards. Kincaid had 500 and Diggs had 491. From Week 1 through the Super Bowl, among receivers with at least 40 targets, Shakir finished sixth in yards after the catch per reception with 7.5.

The most likely outcome with this group of receivers is that they all hinder each other. We may be looking at a 2a, 2b, and 2c situation behind Kincaid. That'll make it tough for any of these receivers to truly break out and provide fantasy managers with at least a WR3 type of season. Based on Shakir's draft capital and first two seasons in the league, he doesn't seem like a good bet. His target share and targets per route run numbers are concerning. Neither improved significantly, even after Week 8 when his playing time increased substantially. Given Samuel's age and lack of quality fantasy production, he also seems like a bad bet. If there is a WR3-level receiver here, Coleman is probably the best bet due to his age and draft capital.

The other caveat is that with Joe Brady having implemented a more balanced offense with a more considerable emphasis on the running game, we could see Buffalo utilize 12 personnel more often, especially with Kincaid and Knox. That would take one of these three receivers off the field, and if that receiver isn't the same every time, the lack of playing time and route runs would negatively impact all of them. That finally brings us to Chase Claypool, and guess what, I'm buying!

We already discussed some concerns regarding Coleman being the team's primary X receiver. Based on his Reception Perception profile, he could struggle at that spot in a similar manner to Quentin Johnston and Treylon Burks. As a rookie, Claypool ran 76% of his routes out wide, and in his second season, that increased to 80%. Claypool had 214 targets, 121 receptions, 1,733 yards, and 11 touchdowns in those first two years. He finished as the WR32 rookie with an 11.0 half-PPR PPG average and the WR44 with an 8.7 half-PPR PPG average. He scored just two touchdowns on 105 targets, so he certainly dealt with some bad luck in that department.

In his third season in Pittsburgh, he fell out of favor. He was moved into the slot where he ran 60% of his routes. That didn't help his production, and he was traded midseason to the Bears. He had to deal with an incompetent offense and terrible quarterback play there, as if joining a new team wasn't hard enough. He spent this past season as a Miami Dolphin, but Claypool had little chance of making a splash with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle entrenched as the starters.

While most will have written off Claypool as an immature diva, remember, he's just 26 years old. Not many 22- and 23-year-old receivers come in and put up over 120 catches, 1,700 yards, and 11 touchdowns in their first two seasons in the NFL. If Coleman struggles as Buffalo's X receiver, Claypool, given his size and athleticism, could eventually be allowed to play that role. It's certainly possible Claypool could replicate the same role Gabriel Davis played for Buffalo the past few seasons. While Claypool wasn't a fantasy stud, drafting him at WR108 with his weekly upside and splash games would be a solid win. He's a better in best ball pick, but he's more interesting than his ADP suggests.

Verdict: Fair Price on Keon Coleman, Slight Sell on Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir, Buy Chase Claypool

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

Dalton Kincaid: TE5, ADP 51
Dawson Knox: TE38, ADP 253

In 2023, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, and Deonte Harty combined for 284 targets, 178 receptions, 2,165 yards, and 17 touchdowns. All four of those players are no longer with the team. In 2022, Diggs, Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, and Jamison Crowder combined for 325 targets, 204 receptions, 2,748 yards, and 22 touchdowns. All four of those players are no longer on the team. In 2023, Davis, Diggs, Sherfield, and Harty combined to have 61 red-zone targets. Diggs and Davis accounted for 26 (!!!) end-zone targets. Both players ranked inside the top 20 in this category among receivers.

Bills targets per route without Stefon Diggs on the field over the last two seasons:

James Cook 31%
Dalton Kincaid 29%
Khalil Shakir 19%
Dawson Knox 18%
Gabe Davis 16%

(small sample warning)

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) May 14, 2024

Kincaid wasn’t fully unleashed as a rookie. With veteran Dawson Knox, the Bills brought Kincaid along slowly. He finished just 23rd in snap share at 65.6% and 13th in route participation at 82.9%. He had five games with a route share of less than 70%, which will not happen this upcoming season. We should expect his route participation to exceed 85% in 2024 and for him to never drop below 80% on any given week.

He had six games with a route participation rate of 85% or higher. He had seven targets in five of them, five receptions in five, and over 46 yards in four. He averaged 7.6 targets, 5.8 receptions, 58.5 yards, and 0.33 touchdowns per game. He had a 22.1% target share and a 23% target rate. Over 17 games, those per-game averages would amount to 129 targets, 99 receptions, 995 yards, and six touchdowns.

Alright... Dalton Kincaid might be really good.

Bills asked him to run intermediate and downfield routes against man coverage as a rookie. Don't see that often. pic.twitter.com/9HXWMqXwPh

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 14, 2024

Sam LaPorta overshadowed Kincaid’s rookie season, but Kincaid still finished with 91 targets, 73 receptions, and 673 yards. Those are some impressive numbers, considering Diggs and Davis were on the team, and Kincaid played just 65.6% of the team’s snaps. Kincaid was in the offense last year and appears to be the most talented pass-catcher on the team. Considering his rookie season's strength, he could flirt with 90 receptions, which gives him the potential to finish as the TE1.

Fantasy managers being able to draft Kincaid as the fifth tight end off the board is good value. He's likely to be Josh Allen's No. 1 target. That's a fantastic place to be for any pass-catcher. As for Knox, he's nothing more than a touchdown-or-bust tight end. In five seasons, Knox has more than 65 targets just once. He's never once recorded 50 catches and he's never had 600 yards. However, from 2021-2022, Knox did catch 15 touchdowns. If the Bills implement 12 personnel more frequently, Knox could become a decent streamer in favorable matchups where fantasy managers are looking to get lucky with a touchdown. However, that's ultimately the best Knox will be fantasy-wise unless Kincaid were to miss time.

Verdict: Buy Dalton Kincaid, Fair Price on Dawson Knox

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