Washington Commanders Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

July 17, 2024

Rob's 2024 fantasy football team preview for the Washington Commanders. Read about fantasy football values, sleepers, rookies, and starters at QB, RB, WR, and TE.

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Washington Commanders as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

Washington seemingly struck out a few times in its head-coaching search before landing on Dan Quinn, the former defensive coordinator for the Cowboys. He hired Kliff Kingsbury to be the team's offensive coordinator. He was last in the NFL from 2019-2022 as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. During that time, Kingsbury had rookie quarterback Kyler Murray under center. With the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Washington selected Jayden Daniels, who has a similar skill set to Murray. Historically, Kingsbury has employed an up-tempo offense, and considering how dreadful the Washington defense is expected to be, there could be some sneaky fantasy upside in this offense. It may not always be pretty, but garbage points are worth the same as any other point scored.

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Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Jayden Daniels: QB15, ADP 99

Daniels’ ADP reflects the quarterback position's strength but indicates that rushing success at the position is still undervalued. That seems hard to believe, considering just how good Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are for fantasy football, but it’s hard to explain how guys like Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff are being drafted ahead of Daniels.

Over his final 39 collegiate games, Daniels had 459 carries, 2,729 rushing yards, and 27 touchdowns. We’re talking about 153 carries, 910 yards, and nine touchdowns in 13 games. In his final two seasons at LSU, he had 321 carries, 2,019 yards, and 21 touchdowns. That amounts to 161 carries, 1,010 yards, and 10 touchdowns over 13 games. For context, Kyler Murray had 140 carries, 1,001 yards, and 12 rushing touchdowns in his final season at Oklahoma in 14 games, so Daniels is in some excellent company.

Comparing the rushing potential for Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye to recent Round 1/2 QBs:

- Designed rush rate dropped from college to pros for everyone but Lamar. CFB scramble rate seems to be the more important metric.
- No QB had a higher scramble% than Daniels. pic.twitter.com/forfY4ycjy

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 1, 2024

From 1990-2023, five quarterbacks have had 150 or more rush attempts in a season. They’ve finished as the QB1, QB1, QB2, QB5, and QB7 in PPG averages. Since 1990, there have been nine quarterbacks with 125-149 rush attempts in a season. They’ve finished as the QB1, QB1, QB3, QB3, QB5, QB5, QB7, QB8, and QB23. QB23, the lone outlier here, belongs to Cam Newton’s 2020 season with the New England Patriots. That year, he threw 368 passes and just eight touchdowns. Everyone else, though, finished in the top eight. Since 1990, there have been 21 quarterbacks to finish with 700 or more rushing yards. Their fantasy finishes have ranged from QB1 to QB11. Fifteen have finished in the top five, 10 have finished in the top three, and five have finished as “the” QB1.

Running the football as a quarterback is a cheat code for fantasy football. Daniels has proven he can do it, and he does it at a high level. As you've just learned, the history of running quarterbacks is incredibly impressive for fantasy football. Daniels doesn’t need to be a great passer. He doesn’t. Justin Fields finished with 2,241 passing yards and 17 touchdowns in 2022. Awful numbers. Truly awful. He still finished as the QB5 with a 20.5 PPG average. Why? Because he could run the ball!

In 2019, Kyler Murray finished his rookie season with 3,722 passing yards and 20 touchdowns. He also had 93 carries, 544 rushing yards, and four touchdowns. Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals head coach from that year, is now Daniels’ offensive coordinator. Murray finished as the QB12 that season with an 18.8 PPG average.

This fact won’t help Daniels win games as a rookie, but it’ll undoubtedly help for fantasy. The Washington defense ranked 32nd in points allowed and 32nd in yards given up. It’s unlikely it’ll be last in both categories again in 2024, but it won’t be good, that’s for sure. That’ll put Daniels and the Washington offense in a position where they’re chasing points. There will be plenty of garbage points.

On top of their defense putting them in a position to play fast, Kingsbury’s offenses have also been fast-paced as it is. Daniels should get plenty of opportunities to throw the ball, and a below-average offensive line could have him running quite a bit. Not the formula for winning NFL games, but it sure will work for fantasy football.

Given Daniels’ ability to run the football, his current positional ADP becomes such a smash for fantasy managers looking to wait on a quarterback. Given the depth of the position, those who draft Daniels as their QB1 can still target quality high-volume pocket passers such as Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, or Matthew Stafford later in the draft. Daniels is a buy all day long at his current cost.

Verdict: Buy Jayden Daniels

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Austin Ekeler: RB31, ADP 97
Brian Robinson Jr.: RB34, ADP 105

Given how they performed last year, it seems surprising to see Ekeler being drafted ahead of Robinson. Robinson finished as the RB21 with a 12.2 half PPR PPG average, while Ekeler finished as the RB23 with an 11.7 PPG average. Robinson had 178 carries, 733 yards, and five touchdowns in 15 games. Ekeler had 179 carries, 628 yards, and five touchdowns in 14 games. Pretty similar. Ekeler had 74 targets, 51 receptions, 436 receiving yards, and one touchdown. Robinson had 43 targets, 36 receptions, 368 yards, and four touchdowns.

Robinson was certainly more productive through the air, not only in terms of his catch percentage, but also overall yards per target and touchdowns. Robinson was generally the more efficient player, but the differences between the two players weren’t overly significant, as you can see below.

Robinson is a 230-pounder, while Ekeler is an older, 200-pound pass-catching specialist. Ekeler has shown the ability to run the football, but given his size and age, it makes sense that the team would utilize him differently than the Chargers did.

Fantasy managers should expect Robinson to handle the early-down work while Ekeler handles the pass-catching duties, the third-down work, and the two-minute drill. The biggest question is who gets the scoring opportunities. Ekeler scored 25 rushing touchdowns from 2021-2022, proving he had a nose for the end zone. His pass-catching ability was also a positive near the goal line because the defense had to anticipate both play calls by having him on the field. Who Kliff Kingsbury uses near the goal line will determine which one of these backs becomes the best option in this ambiguous backfield.

Over Kingsbury's four years in Arizona with Kyler Murray as quarterback, a quarterback similar to Jayden Daniels to some extent, they averaged 333 running back carries and 108 running back targets a season. The running back carries ranged from 298 to 361, while the running back targets ranged from 103 to 111.

This gives fantasy managers a decent projection of what to expect from this group volume-wise in 2024. Fantasy managers should expect Robinson to handle more rushing work while Ekeler handles most of the passing work. Robinson should be expected to have around 55% of the rushing work and 35% of the receiving work. Conversely, Ekeler should be expected to have around 35% of the rushing work and 55% of the receiving work.

Based on Kingsbury's four-year averages, Robinson would finish with around 185 carries and 38 targets, Ekeler with around 117 carries and 60 targets, Robinson with around 1,000 scrimmage yards and 28 receptions, and Ekeler with around 800 scrimmage yards and 45 receptions.

That would give Robinson a 6.7 half PPR PPG average and Ekeler a 6.0 half PPR PPG average. This is close enough that everything would come down to who gets the touchdowns. Given Ekeler's elite production from 2021-2022, it's also possible that the Washington staff could try to tap into that and give Ekeler more volume. Given Ekeler’s pedigree and history, that’s certainly a possible outcome and one, based on their current positional ADPs, some fantasy managers might be betting on.

Ekeler and Robinson are the last of the starting running backs in terms of ADP. Tyjae Spears and Devin Singletary separate the two players, but after Robinson, you start looking at premium backups such as Trey Benson, Blake Corum, Chase Brown, and Zach Charbonnet. Given that, neither player needs to be targeted or avoided necessarily. They’re both fair prices.

Fantasy managers don’t know exactly how this backfield will shake out, and who gets the goal-line work will determine which pick was the better pick. There’s a reasonable argument for each player. If you’re waiting on a running back, both players are decent picks at their current costs.

Verdict: Fair Prices on Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

Terry McLaurin: WR32, ADP 60
Jahan Dotson: WR62, ADP 144
Luke McCaffrey: WR81, ADP 204

Since McLaurin was drafted, Washington has never, not once, thrown for more than 3,725 yards in five years. It has never had 25 touchdowns. Washington has finished with fewer than 3,500 passing yards in four out of the last five seasons. Twice, it has finished with less than 20 touchdowns. In McLaurin’s five seasons in Washington, the team averages 3,462 passing yards and 20.5 touchdowns per season. Washington has the 10th-fewest passing yards and seventh-fewest passing touchdowns since McLaurin’s rookie season.

Despite that, McLaurin has had over 1,000 yards every season since his rookie year. From 2020-2023, excluding his rookie season, McLaurin is averaging 7.82 targets, 4.85 receptions, 66.12 yards, and 0.27 touchdowns per game. Those per-game averages equate to 133 targets, 82 receptions, 1,124 yards, and 4.5 touchdowns over 17 games. It's pretty darn impressive, considering how pathetic his quarterbacks have been.

Enter Jayden Daniels. It is not a stretch to say he’ll be, by far, the best passer McLaurin has ever played with. He’s caught passes from Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Carson Wentz, Sam Howell, and Jacoby Brissett. Ladies and gentlemen, that is a crime in 48 of the 50 states. We don't need Daniels to be a superstar. We just need him to be okay. Okay, that would be an improvement on what McLaurin has dealt with thus far.

In his four seasons with the Cardinals, Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses averaged 614 pass attempts per season. In 2022, they threw the football 664 times, which is a bit of an outlier. In 2019-2021, they averaged 597 pass attempts per year. From 2019-2021, again eliminating the 2022 season, the Cardinals averaged 4,044 yards per season and 25.5 touchdowns.

WRs who have at least 75 receptions & 1,000 receiving yards in each of their last four seasons ⬇️

Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs
Tyreek Hill
Terry McLaurin pic.twitter.com/jHeP85IPNw

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) July 4, 2024

McLaurin had a 21.6% target share in 2023. Before that, he had target shares of 22.6% (2022), 24.5% (2021), and 25.4% (2020). If we expect the Commanders to throw it 597 times as Kingsbury’s offenses did in Arizona, and McLaurin has a 22% target share, he’d have roughly 125 targets. Based on his career averages, he’d finish with 78 receptions, 1,092 yards, and five touchdowns. But those career averages are based on his time catching balls from Keenum, McCoy, Smith, Haskins, Allen, Heinicke, Gilbert, Wentz, Howell, and Brissett. Sorry to do that again, but what if Daniels is better?

Those stats above would result in a 10.48 half PPR PPG average, which would have resulted in a WR34 finish last season, which is mostly in line with his current cost. That may not seem like you’re getting a lot of insulated value. Still, again, we’re basing his final stat line on his career averages, catching passes from Keenum, McCoy, Smith, Haskins, Allen, and you get the picture. What if Daniels is better? What if Daniels is a lot better? Shouldn't that be the expectation because he’s the No. 2 overall pick and a former Heisman winner?

As a rookie in 2019, McLaurin finished as the WR26 with an 11.6 half PPR PPG average. He was the WR20 (11.9 PPG) in 2020, WR32 (10.2 PPG) in 2021, WR23 (11.0 PPG) in 2022, and WR37 (9.7 PPG) this past season. As you can see by his career finishes, he’s outplayed his current positional ranking in four out of five seasons. This past year was the only year he failed, and the difference between his current ranking of WR32 and where he finished last year, WR37, is marginal at best.

His current cost indicates fantasy managers can mostly buy him at his floor. While McLaurin may have disappointed in years past, he’s continued to show he’s one of the better receivers in the league. Hopefully, Daniels can bring out more from McLaurin than we’ve seen thus far. It’s certainly worth the price of admission.

Dotson is in do-or-die mode. Go big or go home. He's struggled through his first two seasons, and now that he's entering his third season, he's got a lot riding on how he performs this year. Things haven't been easy for Dotson since entering the NFL as a first-round prospect in 2022.

As a rookie, he was forced to catch passes from three different quarterbacks: Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, and Sam Howell. The Commanders' trio of quarterbacks finished 23rd in completion percentage, 21st in yards, 17th in touchdowns, sixth in interceptions, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 22nd in quarterback rating.

In his second season, he caught passes from Howell and Jacoby Brissett, his fourth different starting quarterback. On top of that, Washington switched offensive coordinators for this past season. In 2023, the Washington quarterbacks finished 19th in completion percentage, 18th in yards, 16th in touchdowns, second in interceptions, 25th in yards per attempt, and 26th in quarterback rating. That is certainly not the environment for success -- four mediocre-to-downright-bad quarterbacks and two different offensive coordinators.

Behind No. 1 receiver Terry McLaurin and Dotson, Washington will likely trot out third-round rookie Luke McCaffrey as its No. 3 receiver. Another option could be 2021 third-round pick Dyami Brown, who has 29 receptions and 476 yards in three seasons. The starting tight end will be either third-round rookie Ben Sinnott or Zach Ertz, who will turn 34 in October. The target competition behind McLaurin is nonexistent.

While fantasy managers are likely turned off by Dotson's second season, there's no reason to be out at his current price. He was a popular breakout pick last year, and unfortunately, that never materialized.

However, the entire offense struggled. McLaurin had his fewest yards since his rookie season. Dotson showed plenty of promise as a rookie. What if we get more of that player in 2024? What if Daniels is really good like his draft capital and Heisman-winning final season in college indicate? What if Luke McCaffrey and Ben Sinnott play like the third-round rookies they are?

McCaffrey is a fifth-year draftee. He played his first two years at Nebraska before transferring to Rice for his final three. He had two targets, two receptions, and 17 yards through his first three years. As a senior, McCaffrey had 88 targets, 58 receptions, 723 yards, and six touchdowns. He finished with a 2.25 yards per route run average and had 4.7 yards after the catch per reception.

He was even better in his final season when he finished with 120 targets, 71 receptions, 992 yards, and 13 touchdowns. He had a 2.11 yards per route run average and averaged 6.0 yards after the catch per reception. He tested well at the NFL Combine, resulting in a 9.44 RAS (relative athletic score). Washington drafted him in the third round and he looks poised to operate as the team’s slot receiver as a rookie where he ran over 70% of his routes in his final two seasons.

Dotson has struggled enough in his first two seasons where you could argue there’s a chance McCaffrey finishes the season as Washington’s No. 2 receiver. It’s certainly possible. It’s also possible that there’s no true No. 2 receiver and it’s a mix between Dotson, McCaffrey, and the tight ends. Still, the price is cheap enough, so it’s worth a few dart throws. His fifth-year status is a bit of a red flag and he’s just a rookie, but if Daniels is as good as some think he is, there’s a good chance another pass-catcher other than McLaurin is going to be fantasy-relevant.

Verdict: Buy Terry McLaurin, Buy Jahan Dotson, and Fair Price on Luke McCaffrey

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

Ben Sinnott: TE27, ADP 199
Zach Ertz: TE32, ADP 222

Sinnott is a four-year player and a former walk-on. He was redshirted in 2020, but didn't play much in 2021 as a redshirt freshman. He recorded just four targets. It wasn't until 2022 that Sinnott became a regular part of Kansas State's offense. As a redshirt sophomore, he finished with 46 targets, 31 receptions, 447 yards, and four touchdowns. He posted an 11.8% target share and a 14.2% target rate. Sinnott was modestly effective with the targets he received, finishing with a 1.39 yards per route run average.

Sinnott broke out in his final year at Kansas State this past season. He finished with 73 targets, 48 receptions, 669 yards, and six touchdowns. He ranked fourth among all tight ends this past season in total targets. Sinnott was sixth in receptions and fourth in yards. His 81.0 PFF receiving grade ranked ninth out of 105 tight ends with at least 25 targets. His 6.8 yards after catch per reception ranked 29th out of the same sample and his 2.02 yards per route run average was the ninth best. Sinnott had a 17.2% target share and a 21.9% target rate. Sinnott was one of the better receiving tight ends in the country this past season. He finished with just two drops out of 73 targets and hauled in 47.8% of his contested catch opportunities over the past two years.

There’s little competition at the tight-end position, although Kingsbury has shown a fascination with Ertz. Remember, Kingsbury continued to utilize Ertz ahead of Trey McBride just last season until Ertz got hurt and forced his hand. Sinnott is an elite athlete, posting a 9.72 RAS. He posted elite scores across the NFL Combine, including his 40-yard dash, shuttle time, three-cone, vertical, and broad jump scores.

Ertz is a 34-year-old tight end who has struggled with injuries in recent seasons. However, he’s very familiar with Kingsbury’s offense. In 2021, following his trade to Arizona, Ertz posted a 9.3 half PPR PPG average and averaged 7.4 targets, 5.1 receptions, and 52.2 yards per game. In 2022, in 10 games, Ertz averaged 6.9 targets, 4.7 receptions, and 40.6 yards per game. He finished as the TE7 with a 9.2 half PPR PPG average.

This past season, his efficiency, which had already been declining, fell of a cliff. The volume was still there. In seven games last year, he averaged 6.1 targets per game. His reception and yardage numbers dropped to 3.8 and 26.7, respectively. He was the TE26 with just a 5.5 half PPR PPG average.

Fantasy managers shouldn’t want anything to do with Ertz anymore; however, his presence could hinder Sinnott getting a full-time role, which he needs to be fantasy-relevant. As you can see from Ertz’s targets per game averages the past three years under Kingsbury, there’s potential here if Sinnott can establish himself as the clear No. 1 tight end for Washington. Especially on a team lacking a defined No. 2 target at this time.

Sinnott makes for an easy player to buy at his cost. He’s essentially free and checks off a lot of boxes that we look for in tight ends becoming fantasy-relevant. The depth chart at tight end is open as is the target hierarchy for the team. All of that makes the rookie someone to target. Ertz should be ignored. Even if he gets more playing time than we want, he’s not going to do anything with it. He’ll be a touchdown-or-bust player who will be lucky to cross 40 yards. The ceiling is basically 8-10 points. Pass.

Verdict: Buy Ben Sinnott and Sell Zach Ertz

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