Tennessee Titans Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

July 11, 2024

Rob's 2024 fantasy football team preview for the Tennessee Titans. Read about fantasy football values, sleepers, rookies, and starters at QB, RB, WR, and TE.

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Tennessee Titans, part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

The Titans organization has gone through a significant transition this offseason. They parted ways with former head coach Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill and their longtime face of the franchise, Derrick Henry. Years previously, they've been one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL, but their offseason moves this year indicate a new-look offense. They hired Cincinnati's offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan, as their head coach. The Bengals have long been a pass-first offense. They also added pass-catchers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to go along with DeAndre Hopkins, giving them a robust three-headed monster at receiver. Those moves signify a change in operating procedure, and with second-year quarterback Will Levis at the helm, it'll be interesting to see how this team looks in 2024.

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Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Will Levis: QB24, ADP 143

When it comes to Levis, we’re required to do an awful lot of projecting. That’s because he only started eight games as a rookie, so much about his situation has changed. The Titans let go of Mike Vrabel and hired Brian Callahan, former offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Levis is certainly no Joe Burrow, but Cincinnati has been one of the more pass-heavy offenses in the league during Callahan’s time there. Callahan hired Jacksonville’s former passing game coordinator as his offensive coordinator. Jacksonville was sixth in pass attempts last year. The coaching tells us we should expect a much more pass-centric offense in 2024, but so do their offseason moves.

They signed Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd in free agency. Ridley received a monster deal: a four-year, $92 million contract with $47 million guaranteed. With DeAndre Hopkins already on the roster, the team now has three very capable, albeit slightly older, receivers for Levis to throw to. Ridley and Hopkins both went over 1,000 yards last year, and Boyd is a strong slot receiver. It isn’t just about who they added but who they lost.

That someone is Derrick Henry. For years, the team's offensive identity has been centered around Henry and the running game. Their moves this offseason scream that they’ll be changing this upcoming season. Because of all those changes, last season’s results need to be taken with a grain of salt, but ignoring them wouldn’t be wise, either.

In eight starts, Levis averaged 31.1 pass attempts, 224 yards, one touchdown, and 0.5 interceptions per game with a 59.0% completion percentage. He averaged 13.4 PPG during that span. However, it should be noted that 24.7% of his total fantasy points came in one contest, whereas if he had scored the same PPG each week, any given week would have only accounted for 12.5%.

While Levis is an above-average athlete, we didn’t see him used much as a runner. He had just 25 attempts and 57 yards in his eight starts, 121 yards over 17 games. Those are Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr-type numbers. For his fantasy value, that’s a gigantic red flag. With virtually no rushing bonus, his fantasy value will have to come entirely from his passing.

That’s a concern for everyone. Cousins is a fantastic passer, but his lack of rushing significantly limits his ceiling. The same is true for Tua Tagovailoa. The margin of error is so much smaller, and the ceiling is not nearly as high without some rushing ability. Levis didn’t show that as a rookie, so let’s discuss his passing.

Above is his success rate from last season, courtesy of his Reception Perception film study, which you can read here. Again, take it with a grain of salt because Levis lacked quality pass-catchers behind Hopkins last season. However, quarterback analyst Derrik Klassen had this to say about Levis’ film from his rookie season:

“Levis is a rugged pocket passer. Every play is a test to see how hard or how far he can throw the ball. If he has to take a killshot to the ribs to make it happen, so be it. Levis may even welcome the violence given how willing he is to hang in the pocket. Levis finished with a 65.7% adjusted accuracy score. That’s not good at all but it’s marginally better than both Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young. For Levis to at least be in line with those two is a minor victory considering the relative draft stock. Levis is a tricky projection. For the time being, he’s a limited and overzealous pocket passer with middling touch. But he also brings a degree of arm talent and pocket toughness that isn’t easy to come by and he showed better flashes of processing than I thought he would in year one. Levis’ best bet is to mature into some advanced version of Tannehill. Maybe peak Joe Flacco with better mobility. That’s a respectable quarterback either way.  Given his arm strength, he could obviously be more, but if that’s where Levis ends up, a solid QB but a tier below the best of the best, that’s not bad for what most considered a developmental second-round quarterback.”

Levis is already pretty cheap, but getting him much higher is almost impossible. Ranking him ahead of Geno Smith or Baker Mayfield seems unwise; those passers ranked right above him. It’s impossible to rank him over Deshaun Watson because whatever deficiencies Watson has as a passer, he’s still a top-10 rushing quarterback in the league, and for fantasy, that matters. Truthfully, you can make a strong case that Derek Carr should be ahead of Levis, but that’s nitpicking. Levis’ price is fair.

Verdict: Fair Price on Will Levis

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Tony Pollard: RB29, ADP 92
Tyjae Spears: RB32, ADP 100

Pollard was electric in 2022. He finished 15th in rushing yards, 12th in receiving yards, second in yards per reception, fourth in yards per route run, fifth in yards per touch, third in yards per carry, fourth in breakaway run rate, first in yards after contact per rushing attempt, and eighth in yards created per touch.

That level of efficiency, especially on 232 total touches, is wild. Equally wild, however, is the drop-off that Pollard experienced last year. Although some of that could be attributed to his broken leg in the 2022 playoffs, Pollard wasn't the same player last year as in 2022.

As you can see from the table above, Spears outperformed Pollard in almost every category last season. However, if you compare Spears to Pollard's 2022, you come to a completely different conclusion, making this ambiguous backfield more challenging to assess.

We're left wondering which Pollard we will see in 2024. It should be noted that in 2022, Pollard worked as the 1B to Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas. He finished with 232 touches to Zeke's 248. Pollard was a clear workhorse running back this past season, touching the ball 307 times compared to Rico Dowdle, who was Dallas's No. 2 running back. He had just 106 touches.

If you look at Pollard's efficiency in 2022 and 2023 and then compare those seasons to his number of touches, you might conclude that he cannot handle such a big workload. He's better and more efficient if his touches are more managed. When you have ambiguous backfields, two or three running backs typically possess different skill sets. Maybe one is more of a bruiser or an in-between-the-tackles kind of runner, while the other is a more explosive pass-catcher.

Determining how the workload will be distributed is much easier in those situations. That's not the case with Tennessee's backfield. Spears and Pollard bring a lot of the same qualities to the table. There is a lot of overlap in their skill sets, which makes this even more difficult.

Given Pollard's experience and Tennessee's willingness to sign him to a decent contract given Spears' productive season, fantasy managers should expect Pollard to lead the way, at least early. This will not be a No. 1 and No. 2 type of backfield. Pollard will be the 1A, and Spears will be the 1B. It's going to be a very close split, and some weeks could very well be a "hot hand" situation until or if someone separates and forces the coaching staff to do something differently.

Realistically, however, given Spears' injury history from college and Pollard's efficiency downfall with more touches last season, we should expect the coaching staff to want to keep this backfield 50/50 to keep both backs healthy and efficient.

This will come down to who gets the high-value touches because I expect their total touches to be fairly similar, with a slight edge to Pollard. However, there is one area where he struggled immensely with last season -- scoring. Pollard had 72 total red-zone touches, the second most among running backs. He had 30 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line and 13 inside the 5-yard line, both of which were the sixth most among running backs. He was also third in red-zone targets.

Given Pollard's incredibly strong red-zone work, it's astonishing he finished with just six touchdowns, the 24th most among running backs. If Pollard struggles to punch the ball into the end zone, Spears could quickly become the preferred fantasy option because of his potential scoring opportunities.

Worst TD conversion rate per carries inside 5-yard line (Minimum 10 carries):

Tony Pollard: 12.5% (2 of 16)
Alvin Kamara: 15% (3 of 12)
AK Dillon: 20% (2 of 10)
D’Andre Swift: 28.5% (4 of 14) 👀
Joe Mixon: 30% (6 of 20) 👀

— Mike Randle (@RandleRant) June 1, 2024

Based on their current prices, fantasy managers should expect a 50/50 split of the work. I envision Pollard and Spears splitting the carries fairly evenly, but Spears will be the preferred pass-catching back, and Pollard will be the preferred short-yardage and goal-line back to start. This offense isn’t expected to be very strong, which means the scoring opportunities could be limited. Tennessee also finished the 2023 season with PFF’s worst offensive line in the league.

Prices for both backs are fair, but given the state of the team’s offense, offensive line, and overlapping skill sets, this is a backfield I’d instead not invest in. The prices, however, consider some of these concerns, so we’ll give them both fair prices, but be cautious. If one of them seizes a bigger role, the other one is sure to bust. We have no idea which one will do which, evidenced by their almost identical price tags.

Verdict: Fair Prices on Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

Calvin Ridley: WR36, ADP 66
DeAndre Hopkins: WR37, ADP 76
Tyler Boyd: WR83, ADP 211
Treylon Burks: WR116, ADP 311

Much like Tennessee's running back situation, fantasy managers don’t really know who the Titans' No. 1 receiver will be. Right now, there’s a slight lean toward Ridley, likely on the preface of “follow the money.” If you’re one of the people who think it’s Ridley comfortably, take a gander at the chart below and ask yourself why you think that.

Hopkins had a much higher target share and target rate. He averaged more yards per game, more air yards per game, had a higher air yards share, a higher yards per target average, a higher yards per reception average, a much better yards per route run average, a higher yards per team pass attempt average, and a better half-PPR PPG average.

He did all that with Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis on an offense that finished 27th in total points, 30th in pass attempts, 29th in passing yards, and 29th in passing touchdowns. Meanwhile, Ridley had Trevor Lawrence, and the Jaguars finished 13th in total points, sixth in pass attempts, ninth in passing yards, and 21st in passing touchdowns. Jacksonville had an 89.3 quarterback rating, and Tennessee had an 83.2. So, Ridley had the better quarterback and significantly better offense, but Hopkins had better efficiency stats and a higher fantasy average?

DeAndre Hopkins tied Garrett Wilson for 4th in open score behind only Allen, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill.

His per-route data has rebounded late in his career, and Hopkins was great vs. man coverage in 2023. pic.twitter.com/XHpvw03Q7D

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 12, 2024

Not only that but Levis and Hopkins have already built chemistry together. They’ve played together. Granted, it wasn’t in the same system or offense it’ll be this year, but they already have a relationship. Based on that, it’s hard to see why Ridley is ahead of Hopkins. Money talks, I guess? That and Ridley is two-and-a-half years younger than Hopkins. Hopkins is 32. Ridley will turn 30 in December. Do two years matter that much?

Last year in Cincinnati, Jake Browning averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game in his seven starts with Callahan as offensive coordinator. Levis was at 31.1. We should expect Levis’ pass attempts per game average to increase to 33-34, which would have Tennessee finishing between 13th and 20th in pass attempts based on last year’s data. If we predict roughly 573 pass attempts (33.75 per game) and approximately 4% are throwaways (23), we have 550 targetable passes.

A 22.6% target share, like the one Ridley had last year, would be 124 targets, down from the 136 he had last season. Not 136 Lawrence targets. 124 Levis targets. That’s a significant downgrade. Hopkins will unlikely repeat his 28.6% target share with Ridley and Boyd in town. Fantasy managers should expect a 22.5% to 25.5% target share for both players. At 25.5%, that would be 140 targets, roughly in line with the 136 they received last year.

Last year, Hopkins and Ridley's 10.8 and 10.6 half-PPR PPG averages resulted in WR29 and WR31 finishes, respectively. That makes their current WR36 and WR37 price tags fairly reasonable. However, unless Levis takes a big step forward, which is possible but probably unlikely, the ceiling for both players is somewhat capped because of the other and the likely below-average quarterback play.

Very few quarterbacks can support three fantasy-relevant pass-catchers. There’s little reason to believe Levis is that kind of quarterback or that the Tennessee offense will have the volume it needs to support three pass-catchers. Due to that, Boyd can largely be ignored. He has some contingency value if Ridley or Hopkins gets hurt, but that’s about it.

Boyd will be the team’s full-time slot receiver. His low average target depth and yards per reception average make him a volume-based and PPR-based receiver. He won’t get the volume in Tennessee with Ridley and Hopkins healthy. Burks is only mentioned here because of his first-round pedigree. If he’s released or traded to somewhere like Washington or Dallas, maybe we can talk about taking some cheap dart throws, but as it stands now, he’s not worth a roster spot.

Verdict: Fair Prices on Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins (prefer Hopkins at cost), Sell Tyler Boyd and Treylon Burks

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

Chigoziem Okonkwo: TE22, ADP 179

I’m astonished Okonkwo’s positional ADP is where it is. Last year, he finished as the TE28 with a 4.8 half-PPR PPG average. His expected half-PPR PPG average was 6.5, good for just TE21. That was without the addition of Calvin Ridley or Tyler Boyd. I assure you, those additions are unsuitable for Okonkwo’s fantasy prospects.

In Weeks 1-9, Okonkwo played over 72% of the team’s snaps in five games. His snap share never dipped below 58%. From Weeks 10-18, he played over 72% of the team’s snaps just once in nine games. He was below 58% four times. In Weeks 1-9, Okonkwo’s route participation rate was between 58.6% and 85.2%. It was above 69% six times. From Weeks 10-18, Okonkwo’s route participation rate was between 31.6% and 84.9%. It was below 60% four times. His playing time and route share dropped significantly in the second half of last season.

If that wasn’t bad enough, he just wasn’t very good. His 16.2% target share ranked just 17th. Now, he’ll have to compete with Ridley and Boyd rather than Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chris Moore. His 1.39 yards per route run average ranked 18th. Among 30 tight ends with at least 40 targets, Okonkwo ranked 22nd in yards per reception (9.8), 23rd in yards per target (6.9), 28th in success rate (48.1%), and 28th in drop rate (7.8%).

Okonkwo is unlikely to ever find himself higher than third on the target hierarchy in any given week, and that’ll be a rare occurrence. He’ll often fall between fourth and sixth in targets per game. With Levis at quarterback, he can’t be fantasy-relevant. He’s such an easy sell.

Verdict: Sell Chigoziem Okonkwo

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