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Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson - who should I draft for 2025 fantasy football? Brandon's ADP duel and pick recommendations for quarterbacks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
In the high-stakes world of fantasy football, where every draft pick can make or break a season, understanding Average Draft Position (ADP) is a critical skill for any savvy manager. When it comes to quarterbacks, the decision between two similarly ranked players can be particularly daunting, as their ADP often reflects a tight race in perceived value.
My ADP Duels dive into the art of navigating these close calls, offering insights into how to weigh the subtle differences between quarterbacks who sit neck-and-neck in draft rankings. By mastering the nuances of ADP, you can gain a competitive edge, ensuring your roster is built for success from the opening round. Quarterbacks, as the cornerstone of any fantasy team, carry immense weight in draft strategy, and choosing between two players with comparable ADP requires more than just gut instinct. Factors such as offensive scheme, team support, schedule strength, and even injury history can tip the scales when deciding between signal-callers who appear evenly matched on paper.
In this piece, we’ll break down how to analyze these variables, using real-world examples to illustrate how small differences in player profiles can lead to big fantasy outcomes. Whether it’s a battle between a proven veteran and an ascending star or two dual-threat playmakers, understanding the context behind their ADP is key to making an informed choice. First up out of the gate, I will be looking at the top of the QB board, as the decision between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson looms large for fantasy managers aiming to draft this position early. ADP Duel will equip you with the tools to confidently navigate these quarterback conundrums, ensuring you don’t just follow the draft board but outsmart it. I’ll explore specific player comparisons, highlighting how to leverage ADP trends and statistical projections to your advantage. By the end of this article, you’ll have a clearer roadmap for tackling those nail-biting moments when two quarterbacks are on the board, and the clock is ticking. Get ready to sharpen your draft strategy and turn ADP Duels into decisive victories for your fantasy season.
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Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills
ADP: QB1, 22nd Overall
Allen, the Buffalo Bills’ dual-threat dynamo, remains a fantasy football juggernaut in 2025, making him a prime pick at his current ADP of around the 22nd overall pick (QB1, late second round in standard one-QB leagues). His resume screams reliability: five straight seasons as either QB1 or QB2, with a 2024 stat line boasting 3,731 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, and a career-low six interceptions, plus 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns.
This guy’s a walking cheat code, racking up 40+ total touchdowns for five consecutive years—a feat no other player has matched more than three times. Despite losing Stefon Diggs, Allen’s 2024 season proved he can elevate a middling receiving corps (ranked 27th in average Open Score) with the likes of Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, alongside tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.
His ability to turn broken plays into highlight-reel sprints or pinpoint passes keeps his floor sky-high, while his ceiling—think 50- and 41-point fantasy explosions against the Rams and Lions last year—makes him a weekly game-changer.
At 29, he’s in his prime, dodging the injury bug that plagues other mobile QBs like Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, playing all 17 games for four straight seasons. Drafting Allen at his ADP is like stumbling upon a Ferrari at used-car prices—sure, it’s a premium, but you’re getting elite performance with a side of swagger.
On the other hand, some might hesitate due to the Bills’ retooled offense or the temptation to wait for value quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts or Joe Burrow later in drafts. But let’s be real: passing on Allen is like skipping dessert to “save room” for kale. His dual-threat prowess—tied for the second-most rushing TDs in the NFL in 2023 with 15—gives him a unique edge over pocket passers.
While his passing TDs dipped to 28 last season, his career-low turnovers (seven total, including just one interception since Week 13) show he’s cleaned up the reckless gunslinger vibes without sacrificing his playmaking mojo. The Bills’ offense, projected to be top-tier again in 2025, supports him with a solid run game led by James Cook and a favorable schedule that doesn’t scream defensive gauntlet.
Compared to Lamar Jackson, who’s neck-and-neck at QB2, Allen’s consistency (never finishing below QB2 since 2020) and lower interception rate make him the safer bet for managers who want a set-it-and-forget-it QB.
Snagging Allen in the late second round means you’re locking in a proven difference-maker while still grabbing elite RBs or WRs early—because nothing says “fantasy champ” like pairing Allen’s weekly heroics with a roster that doesn’t need to scrape the waiver wire for points.
Lamar Jackson - QB, Baltimore Ravens
ADP: QB2, 23rd Overall
Jackson, the Baltimore Ravens’ electrifying maestro, was a fantasy football dream machine last season, and at his current ADP of around the 23rd overall pick (QB2, late second round in standard one-QB leagues), he’s looking to unleash more chaos for fantasy managers in 2025. In 2024, Jackson delivered another MVP-caliber season, throwing for 4,172 yards, 41 passing touchdowns, and just four interceptions while adding 915 rushing yards and four scores on the ground—numbers that make fantasy managers do a happy dance.
His dual-threat dominance is unmatched: he’s led all QBs in rushing yards for four straight years, including a 2023 game against Miami where he tossed five TDs and had the Dolphins defense looking like he was playing Madden on rookie mode. With weapons like Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins, and tight end Mark Andrews, plus the addition of Derrick Henry’s thunderous run game keeping defenses honest, Jackson’s 2025 outlook is brighter than a disco ball.
His ability to rack up 20+ fantasy points even in “down” games—see his 17-point floor against the Raiders' mediocre defense last year—makes him a weekly lineup lock. At 28, he’s dodging major injury concerns (17 games played in 2024) and remains the centerpiece of a Ravens offense that ranked top-five in points scored last season.
Snagging Lamar at his ADP is like finding a gourmet burger at a solid price—pure value with all the flavor.
Sure, some fantasy managers might eye Josh Allen’s consistency or Jalen Hurts’ sneaky upside a round later, but betting against Lamar is like betting against gravity—bold, but foolish. His 2024 campaign showed he’s evolved as a passer, posting a career-high 66.7% completion rate and an 8.8 yards-per-attempt average, silencing doubters who called him a one-trick pony.
Unlike Allen, who lost key targets, Jackson’s supporting cast is trending up, with Flowers emerging as a solid WR1 and Hopkins bringing that savvy veteran presence. The Ravens’ schedule in 2025 also looks juicy, with matchups against pass-funnel defenses like Miami and Minnesota, where Lamar historically feasts (think near 40-point outbursts in 2023).
Similar to Allen, Jackson’s ADP offers a value that gives you an edge at the position, letting you nab an elite RB or WR in the first round before securing a QB who’s averaged 23.8 fantasy points per game since 2022, second only to Allen. His turnover rate (nine total in 2024) is a tad higher than Allen’s, but the upside of games with high production totals makes the risk worth it.
Draft Lamar, and you’re not just building a team—you’re unleashing a one-man fantasy wrecking crew who’ll have your opponents crying into their nachos by Week 4.
Fantasy Football Verdict
It's not everyone's cup of tea to aim for the QB position early on during drafts. But different strategies come into play for different managers, as some prefer taking that decision out of their hands in weekly lineups. With that being said, the decision between selecting Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson will come to pass as soon as the second round if you are going that route.
Think of this as deciding on a place to eat when you're extremely hungry. Could there be a "losing pick" here? Not necessarily, as both will be fulfilling and provide what is needed. But as for my preference between the two, consistency is the key, and that currently belongs to Josh Allen.
The streak that Allen is currently riding in terms of fantasy finishes doesn't seem to have an end in sight, barring injury. Although he remains behind Jackson in rushing yardage each season, the upside of scoring potential continues to give him an edge.
In this ADP Duel, I will crown Josh Allen as the victor.
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