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Zach's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/28/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Major League Baseball is ready to get the final weekend in August underway with a jam-packed slate this Friday before turning the month to the final page of the baseball calendar. While Tarik Skubal starting against the Tigers is definitely the headline matchup of the day, there are plenty of exciting matchups and contests all across the board. In this post, we'll focus on the offensive side of things and find some hitters who stand out as strong options to deliver big payouts on their home run props this Friday night.
Don’t forget that no matter how juicy things look, home runs are hard to hit, which is why the payoffs are so nice. Don’t overdo it just because the data looks friendly. Make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll read about four of my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, August 28, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/28/2026)
Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+317, Kalshi)
The Braves started the week with a statement sweep of the visiting Dodgers, culminating in an impressive 1-0 win on Thursday behind Chris Sale. On Friday, they'll look to keep their homestand rolling as they take on a different caliber of opponent and take on the visiting Colorado Rockies.
On Friday night, the Rockies will send Tomoyuki Sugano to the mound, who typically allows a lot of contact. He has been especially smashed by lefties this season, which sets up perfectly for Olson, who has been one of the Braves' hottest hitters. The 32-year-old lefty is up to 37 homers on the season after hitting this blast on Wednesday:
Matt Olson's 37th homer of the season goes right off the foul pole! pic.twitter.com/UbldMqhxUU
— MLB (@MLB) August 26, 2026
Olson has nine homers in his last 25 games, with an impressive barrel rate of over 23% during that span. In total for the year, he has a 15.9% barrel rate and has hit 23 of his 37 homers against righties like Sugano, with an 18% barrel rate on that side of his splits.
Friday night will be his first career matchup against Sugano, who has allowed 26 homers in his 23 starts this season. Even though he pitches in Colorado, he has served up 16 of those homers in his 11 road starts, while lefties have dominated in the splits with 19 of the 26 homers he has allowed. Lefties on the road have a 17% barrel rate and .402 wOBA against Sugano, and Olson will look to continue his strong recent production. He brings good value since he's on the stronger side of the splits this Friday night.
Esmerlyn Valdez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+463, Underdog Sportsbook)
Another player to consider on Friday's slate is Pirates' rookie Esmerlyn Valdez. The 22-year-old righty has proven that he can contribute some solid power right away after his promotion for his MLB debut in May.
In 63 games in the majors, Valdez has 15 homers after hitting 13 homers in 56 games in Triple-A this season and 26 homers last season in the minors. Valdez had eight homers in just 13 games around the All-Star break, but he then entered a 24-game homerless drought. He snapped out of it with this home run blast on Monday:
Esmerlyn Valdez has reached 15 HRs
Season Stats:
15 HR
42 RBI
.249 AVG | .364 OBP | .905 OPSPace: 22 HR / 62 RBI#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/tyGyX57nqL
— PaceBall (@paceball__) August 25, 2026
Valdez has hit over half of his home runs this season against left-handed pitchers. He has eight homers in 77 at-bats on that side of the split, compared to just seven homers in 132 at-bats against righties. He has a 60% hard-hit rate and 24.4% barrel rate on the year against lefties, who he has a .455 wOBA and .688 SLG against on the season.
On Friday night, Valdez and the Pirates get a favorable matchup on the road in St. Louis, where they'll face lefty Quinn Mathews. The 25-year-old gave up seven runs in five innings in his last start, and he has worked his way to just a 6.43 ERA in three starts at the MLB level. He'll make another start at home in this divisional matchup on Friday, and while lefties have struggled against him, righties have hit .326 with a .367 wOBA against him. In his 21 minor league games this season, he allowed 13 homers, and in his 13 innings in the majors, he has also allowed a long ball.
Valdez has cooled off after some impressive power surges earlier in the season, but he's still a very solid option for home run props based on his splits in this matchup. His contact metrics and raw power give him definite upside, and his homers have usually come in clusters when he starts going yard.
