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Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Cooper Kupp - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, Draft Targets

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Los Angeles Rams, as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. We are starting with the NFC West before moving to the AFC West and then down to the NFC/AFC South divisions. Our first entry focused on the Seattle Seahawks. For this second entry, we'll focus on the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams offense is filled with exciting fantasy football options, including two players currently being drafted in the top 10 at their respective positions.

For those who are new to this series, I'll break down each NFL team and their fantasy football prospects for the offensive positions (QB, RB, WR, TE). We'll look at each fantasy-relevant position: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. This 32-part series will identify each player's ADP and whether or not fantasy managers should buy or sell each player at their current cost.

There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings and all of them differ to some extent. I used the ADP from FantasyPros, which can be found here. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our premium account. Our premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you'd like to purchase our premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024 fantasy football drafts:

 

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Matthew Stafford: QB20, ADP 117

Stafford was with the Rams in the first two seasons and largely operated without a true No. 2 receiver. In 2021, Robert Woods tore his ACL and Odell Beckham Jr. came over late, but both players were declining. Their leading receiver that season was Van Jefferson. In 2022, Cooper Kupp goes down after only nine games, and their leading receiver is Tyler Higbee. Do you know how embarrassing that is? Embarrassing isn't even a good tight end, much less your team's best secondary option in the passing game. Looking forward to 2024, Stafford will, by far, have the best and deepest group of pass-catchers he's ever had in Los Angeles. The Kupp and Puka Nacua duo is far better than he's ever had here.

Despite lacking quality No. 2 targets, Stafford tied as the QB9 in 2021 with a 20.5 PPG average. However, he was dreadful in the nine games he played fully in 2022, finishing as the QB25 with a 12.7 PPG average, tied with Zach Wilson. He rebounded this past year and finished as the QB18 with a 16.9 PPG average. His PPG average increased to 17.5 from Weeks 5-17 when Kupp and Nacua were both on the field. (Kupp missed the first four weeks of the season.)

From Weeks 5-17, Stafford averaged 32 passes, 249 yards, and 1.9 touchdowns per game. This 11-game stretch put him on pace for 4,228 yards and 32 touchdowns with just nine interceptions over 17 games. Although Nacua had the greatest rookie season ever, we can reasonably expect some growth from him as a player, even if the numbers don't explicitly indicate that. Kupp should be 100% healthy. All of these things could factor into an even better season for Stafford.

The Rams defense struggled a bit last season, finishing 19th in points allowed and 20th in yards gained. That was with Aaron Donald. They have some young guys who should continue to improve, but Donald's loss is big. Stafford could throw the ball more if the defense takes a minor step backward. From 2021-2022, he averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game compared to the 32.2 he averaged last year in Weeks 5-17. That may not seem like a lot, but it equals out to 42 passes over 17 games, which is another game's worth of passing volume and then some.

Overall, this looks like one of the better offenses in the NFL. Their offensive line is widely regarded as a top-10 unit, and with the trio of Kyren Williams, Kupp, and Nacua, Stafford should have no problem moving the ball and putting up big numbers. Since Stafford is and has never been a runner, that limits his ceiling, but it's not hard to imagine Stafford outplaying his current positional rank.

Verdict: Fair Price Matthew Stafford

 

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Kyren Williams: RB7, ADP 16
Blake Corum: RB39, ADP 126

Williams averaged 19.9 half-PPR PPG last year, second only to Christian McCaffrey. He averaged 2.9 more PPG than Raheem Mostert, who finished as the RB3, 5.9 more PPG than Breece Hall, who finished as the RB10, and 6.6 more PPG than James Conner, who was the RB15. In six out of 12 total games, Williams finished as a top-five running back. He finished outside the top 20 in just two weeks. Williams gave fantasy managers a CMC-like advantage if CMC had not existed.

He averaged 21.7 touches per game and 112.5 scrimmage yards, which put him on a 17-game pace of 369 touches and 1,913 scrimmage yards. He also scored 15 touchdowns in just 12 contests. Considering all that, seeing his current ADP at just RB17 with a second-round price tag may seem weird. However, there are a few things giving fantasy managers pause.

The first is Blake Corum. He was selected in the third round and ended his Michigan career with 2,708 rushing yards and 45 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry over this four-year career at Michigan. He was wildly productive in college. With this third-round draft capital, fantasy managers expect Williams’ 21.7 touches per game to decrease in 2024. All the other Rams running backs averaged just 4.5 touches per game while Williams was active. That number, with Corum’s arrival, is certain to increase.

The second and third reasons tie into each other. For as long as Sean McVay has been in Los Angeles, he has largely operated with one workhorse running back. Williams is just a former fifth-round draft pick, so the team has not invested much in him. We’ve seen late-round and productive running backs -- albeit not on Williams’ level -- get replaced without doing anything wrong. James Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, to name a few recent ones. Could McVay choose to go with Corum if Williams struggles or gets injured? He absolutely could. That risk, however small, doesn’t seem nearly as likely with other top-10 running backs.

As long as Williams is the guy, he will be an excellent pick. As a second-round pick, some of that risk is baked in. He certainly has the potential to be a top-five pick again this year, and Corum shouldn’t change that. Remember the large PPG gap between Williams and RB3, RB10, and RB15? Williams can cede work to Corum and still meet current expectations. Corum is the best handcuff in fantasy football. Short of the Christian McCaffrey role, Williams was the best fantasy role for a running back last season. If Williams were to get injured, Corum would step into that role and handle Williams’ role in full. No one in San Francisco is likely to do that.

It’s also possible Williams may have been just a one-hit wonder. After all, he was just a fifth-round pick, and his 2023 largely came out of nowhere. If that happens, maybe Corum can become the 1A and, eventually, the lead back. That may not seem likely, but it’s much more likely in Los Angeles than, say, with the 49ers, Giants, Eagles, or Colts. However, if Williams plays well and stays healthy, Corum will struggle to have any standalone value.

Verdict: Fair Price on Kyren Williams and Blake Corum

 

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

Puka Nacua: WR6, ADP 9
Cooper Kupp: WR21, ADP 36
Demarcus Robinson: WR80, ADP 204

Puka Nacua had arguably the best rookie season of all time. He had 160 targets, 105 receptions, 1,486 yards, and six touchdowns. He finished with a 26.8% target share, which shows elite target-earning talent. The fantasy football perception became that this was Nacua's world, and the other Los Angeles pass-catchers lived in it. That isn't entirely true. That's not to say Nacua wasn't the No. 1 receiver or that he won't be in 2024; he absolutely will be. However, Kupp was closer to Nacua's production than fantasy managers may remember. Kupp played in 12 games last season but logged just 27% of the snaps in one of those contests, leaving the game early. Looking at the other 11 other games, the splits between Kupp and Nacua are much closer than perceived.

Player Target Share Targets Receptions Yards TDs Air Yard Share YPRR Half-PPR PPG Expected Half-PPR PPG
C. Kupp 25.1% 91 58 726 5 28.9% 2.09 12.1 15.0
P. Nacua 25.7% 93 57 874 3 32.1% 2.61 12.9 16.2

The table above shows that Nacua was the No. 1 receiver, but it's incredibly close. He was more efficient regarding yards per reception, yards per target, and yards per route run. In the end, he had a slightly higher half-PPR PPG average, but considering how close their numbers are, their ADP doesn't reflect that.

Some of that stems from Nacua entering his second season and Kupp being another year older, and that's a fair argument. However, it should be noted that since 2018 (six seasons), Sean McVay has had two receivers finish in the top 20 in half-PPR PPG three times, 50% of the time. He also had two receivers in the top 15 in half-PPR PPG average twice. This is what makes Kupp so appealing at his current ADP. This article here shows why I'm targeting Kupp and other receivers to target this season.

The Rams are lacking any quality options behind these two superstars. Tyler Higbee, the team's longtime tight end, suffered a torn ACL late in 2023 and will likely miss a good chunk of the 2024 season. Given that the next best pass-catcher behind these two is Demarcus Robinson, who has never had more than any of the following statistics in any of his eight seasons -- 75 targets, 50 receptions, and 475 yards -- Kupp and Nacua will be heavily targeted. This duo could handle upward of 55% of the team's targets, an incredible amount of volume.

Nacua finished as a top-12 receiver in seven weeks and scored more than 16 half-PPR points in nine contests. It should be noted that Nacua finished as a top-12 receiver in three out of four weeks with Kupp off the field but finished as a top-12 receiver in four out of 12 weeks with Kupp on the field. Nacua averaged 19.0 half-PPR PPG in Weeks 1-4 when Kupp was out, but from Weeks 5-10 and 12-17 when Kupp played at least 30% of the snaps, his half-PPR PPG average dropped to 12.9.

Nacua is currently being selected before A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Marvin Harrison Jr., three players who have a good chance of outscoring Nacua this year as long as Kupp stays on the field. Given Nacua's splits with and without Kupp on the field, his current ADP is quite high and requires fantasy managers to buy into him at his ceiling. Kupp's, on the other hand, offers plenty of room for him to outplay his current ADP. Given McVay's history of having two receivers finish in the top 20 in half-PPR PPG, and how closely Kupp produced to Nacua last season, he looks like a player to target.

That brings us to Demarcus Robinson. Robinson was not with the Rams until Week 9. He logged 10% and 16% of the snaps in his first two games. That increased to 60% and 59% in the next two before ballooning to 86% or higher in the next four weeks (Weeks 14-17). Robinson averaged 7.3 targets, 4.3 receptions, and 66 yards during that four-game stretch. He had six or more targets in three of those games and had at least 44 yards in all of them, finishing with more than 80 on two occasions. Robinson's rise directly correlated with Tutu Atwell's disappearance. Atwell was inactive for Week 15 but played 17 snaps in the other three games.

McVay has routinely used 11-personnel at a 90% rate, and if Robinson earned that No. 3 role in a high-volume, McVay-led offense with a good quarterback, Robinson will have his handful of spike weeks. He's a "better in best ball" player, but even in redraft leagues, he seems like an easy bet to outplay his ADP.

Verdict: Sell Puka Nacua, Buy Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson

 

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

Tyler Higbee tore his ACL in mid-January. Depending on when he had his surgery and how his recovery goes, that likely leaves him out until November. Considering Higbee has never been much of a fantasy producer anyway and given that he's now 31 years old and coming off a late-season ACL injury, fantasy managers should ignore him. Their backup is Colby Parkinson. He has 57 receptions and 618 yards in four seasons. Fantasy managers can completely ignore the tight-end position for the Rams this season.

Verdict: Sell Everyone

 

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