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In 2024, fantasy football managers are all about wide receivers, but we’re also about value. With prices skyrocketing everywhere else, we don’t want to pay above market value for a player. We also don’t want to pay for a player at the cost of their 90th-percentile outcome. We need the potential to get a positive return on our investment. In the second entry of this series, we’ll be identifying receivers fantasy managers need to draft this season at their current cost.
Our first entry already dropped and discussed three receivers every fantasy manager should try to leave their draft with because of their upside and reasonable price tag, which allows for a positive return on the investment. We’ll be adding three more receivers in this edition.
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Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
It’s amazing how much can change in a season. Kupp can be drafted as the WR21 in Yahoo! drafts and WR24 on the Underdog platform. Those rankings aren’t egregious by any means, but it was just 2021 when Kupp had the best all-time regular and fantasy season for a receiver. Then, in 2022, he was on pace for 197 targets, 153 receptions, 1,727 yards, and 13 touchdowns. Sure, his 2023 was slightly down after an early-season high-ankle sprain and Puka Nacua’s emergence, but those factors are just helping create a nice buying window for Kupp this year.
Kupp played in 12 games last year, but he played just 27% of the snaps in one. Since no one can predict injuries, let’s eliminate that game to see what Kupp was doing in games he played from start to finish. In those 11 other contests, Kupp averaged 8.55 targets, 5.27 receptions, 66 yards, and 0.45 touchdowns per game. Those numbers equate to 145 targets, 90 receptions, 1,122 yards, and 7.5 touchdowns.
Since Stafford has been with the Rams, he’s averaged over 35 pass attempts per game. In the Rams' final seven games, Kupp had a 23.4% target share, which would work to around 140 targets per game. This passing offense will operate through Nacua and Kupp in a big way. It has to. There’s no one else. It’s Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell, or whichever tight end ends up starting over Tyler Higbee, who suffered a torn ACL late in the season. Seeing Nacua and Kupp commandeer 50-55% of Stafford’s targets shouldn't be surprising.
It should be noted that for Kupp’s entire career before 2023, he had a 73.0% catch rate. That fell to 62.1% in 2023. If we’re working off of Kupp having around 140 targets, giving him just a 70.0% catch rate would result in him having 98 receptions. Using his career yards-per-reception average of 12.5, he’d finish with 1,225 yards.
Fantasy managers will likely have forgotten, but in 2021, Kupp was the WR1. In nine games, Robert Woods had a 12.7 half-PPR PPG average, which ranked WR14 on the season. In 2019, Kupp was WR9 and Woods was WR20. Woods was WR11 and Kupp was WR13 in 2018 in half-PPR PPG. Head coach Sean McVay having two receivers finish in the top 20 shouldn’t be all that surprising. His offenses have accomplished the feat multiple times, and I expect it to happen again this season.
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
Since being traded to the Browns in 2022, Cooper has been incredibly consistent. In his first season, he finished with 132 targets, 78 receptions, 1,160 yards, and nine touchdowns. Last year, he finished with 128 targets, 72 receptions, 1,250 yards, and five touchdowns in 15 games. His per-game averages in Cleveland equate to 138 targets, 80 receptions, 1,280 yards, and 7.5 touchdowns. Since 2022, Cooper ranks 13th in targets, 22nd in receptions, eighth in yards, and 11th in touchdowns. Cooper also has the 13th-best full-PPR PPG average among receivers, with at least 15 games played since 2022 at 14.78.
Last season, Cooper finished with a 23.6% target share (22nd highest) and a 42.4% air yards share (fourth highest). His 1,820 air yards were the seventh highest among receivers. He still managed to finish with 841 unrealized air yards, which was the 10th highest. Cooper averaged 2.35 yards per route run (15th highest), 9.8 yards per target (12th highest), 17.4 yards per reception (third highest), and 2.20 yards per team pass attempt (13th highest).
Fantasy managers are drafting him as the WR29 on Underdog and WR27 on Yahoo! This is despite Cooper finishing as the WR13 in 2022 and WR16 in 2023. Fantasy managers are likely concerned about Deshaun Watson; however, in five games where Watson started over 20% of the snaps last season, Cooper averaged 14.8 half-PPR points. Below, you can see Cooper's five-game stretch with Watson under center in 2023.
| Week | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Half-PPR | WR Rank |
| Week 1 | 7 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 5.2 | WR61 |
| Week 2 | 10 | 7 | 90 | 0 | 12.5 | WR32 |
| Week 3 | 8 | 7 | 116 | 1 | 21.1 | WR9 |
| Week 9 | 5 | 5 | 139 | 1 | 22.4 | WR4 |
| Week 10 | 9 | 6 | 98 | 0 | 12.8 | WR20 |
| Average | 7.8 | 5.6 | 96.0 | 0.4 | 14.8 |
During those five weeks with Watson, Cooper averaged 2.79 yards per route run, 12.3 yards per target, 17.1 yards per reception, and 2.89 yards per team pass attempt. Among receivers, he would've ranked sixth in yards per route run, third in yards per target, fourth in yards per reception, and third in yards per team pass attempt.
There's certainly an argument for this being a small sample size, but the results are encouraging nonetheless. From a statistical perspective, his per-game averages would amount to 133 targets, 95 receptions, 1,632 yards, and seven touchdowns over 17 games. His 14.8 half-PPR PPG average would've finished sixth last season. From an efficiency standpoint, Cooper ranks in the top six in several of the most predictive efficiency metrics.
There are many young and exciting receivers, which is part of the reason Cooper is being pushed down draft boards, but being able to draft him near the WR30 mark should be considered stealing. He's excelled with multiple different quarterbacks the past two seasons in Cleveland.
The concerns with Watson, while understandable, should be alleviated based on his performance with Watson last year. If you're still concerned about Watson's shoulder or performance, the Browns signed Jameis Winston, who might be the best backup quarterback in the NFL. When he found himself on the field for the Saints last season, Chris Olave's fantasy production increased over that of starter Derek Carr. Based on his play in the last two seasons, Cooper is a fantastic bet to outplay his current ADP.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Godwin is currently being drafted as the WR36 on Yahoo! and this is wild -- the WR41 on Underdog! Based on his 2023 finish, those ADPs don't seem wild because he finished as the WR37 in half-PPR scoring last year with an average of 10.0 PPG.
However, there's more than meets the eye in this case. Godwin's final receiver finish doesn't exactly consider his entire 2023 season. If you could, I'm asking you to completely forget what you've read about Godwin thus far. Forget his current ADP. Forget where he finished last season. Forget his 2023 half-PPR PPG average. Look at these stats below:
- 137 targets (18th most among receivers)
- 83 receptions (15th most)
- 1,024 yards (23rd most)
- 25 red zone targets (25th most)
- 10 end zone targets (18th most)
- 11 targets inside the 10-yard line (sixth most)
- Finished with a 10.4 expected half-PPR PPG (WR29)
Considering the numbers above, does it make much sense that he finished as the WR37? He finished in the top 24 in targets, receptions, yards, and red-zone targets. He also finished as the WR29 in expected half-PPR PPG average. How did he finish all the way down at WR37? Simple -- touchdowns, or rather, a lack thereof. He finished with just three total touchdowns among receivers, which tied for 58th. However, it gets even more wild because Godwin was tied for sixth (!!!) in targets inside the 10-yard line with 11.
Looking at the receivers who meet these criteria -- 120 total targets, 15 red-zone targets, and seven targets inside the 10-yard line -- we find that 14 receivers accomplished all three. 11 of them had six or more touchdowns, and four of them had double-digit touchdowns. The average number of touchdowns scored by these 14 players was 7.7.
Godwin scored the fewest with just two. The two other qualifying receivers who failed to score six touchdowns were Adam Thielen and Garrett Wilson, who had to deal with Bryce Young and Zach Wilson as quarterbacks, respectively. Young threw 10 touchdowns. Wilson threw eight. Baker Mayfield threw 28.
I understand we just had a really exciting batch of rookie receivers get drafted, but doesn't it feel wild that someone who finished as the WR37 in half-PPR PPG scoring despite that atrocious touchdown luck could be drafted at WR41 this year? Are we expecting his touchdown luck to get worse? Can it get worse? Godwin was at the bottom of the barrel last year among receivers in touchdowns over expected at -3.9. The numbers indicate he should've scored four more touchdowns based on his usage.
Not only that, but Godwin finished the season on a tear. In fact, over the final seven games of the season for Tampa Bay, Godwin outproduced Mike Evans. From Week 14 through their playoff loss in the Divisional round, Godwin had a 23% target share compared to Evans’ 21%. Godwin also averaged more targets (8.3 vs 7.7), receptions (5.4 vs 4.1), and yards (71.9 vs 62.6) per game.
Fantasy managers can draft Godwin at his floor, which presents a tremendous buying opportunity. There's little to no risk in drafting him at his current price. If his touchdowns bounce back to what is expected, Godwin could become a big positive value swing for drafters. His cost is extremely reasonable and given the volume he should receive, the strong play of his quarterback, and the above-average state of his team's offense, Godwin looks like a very appealing bounce-back candidate.
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