Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis: Buccaneers vs Rams

November 23, 2020

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Buccaneers vs Rams MNF game in Week 11. Dan Fornek analyzes the matchups with a detailed breakdown.

After an explosive Thursday Night matchup, we get rewarded with a potential defensive slugfest on Monday Night Football. Both the Buccaneers and Rams recorded impressive Week 10 victories thanks to stifling defenses doing their jobs. In the case of the Rams, they were able to hold Russell Wilson to his worst performance of the season while shutting down the Seahawks' offense (16 points scored). Tampa Bay was able to hold several explosive wide receivers in check against the Panthers. Relying on any offensive player in this game will be a nightmare.

This season, Tampa Bay has been very up and down despite reaching a 7-3 record. It has taken time for Tom Brady to acclimate to Tampa, but one thing that can’t be denied is the embarrassment of riches he has on offense. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski in the passing game and the two-headed rushing attack of Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette, the Buccaneers boast one of the most versatile fantasy nightmares to navigate weekly. Their defense has grown into a force as well, allowing only 22.6 points per game, the eighth-best mark in the NFL this year.

On the other side, the Rams find themselves at 6-3 thanks mostly to their overpowering pass defense. Los Angeles is allowing just 18.7 points per week this season, second only to the Baltimore Ravens. The Rams are the best secondary in fantasy football and have generated almost as many interceptions (8) as touchdowns allowed (9). On offense, the Rams are almost as complicated to figure out as Tampa Bay. Four Rams players have a least 30 targets and only one player (Robert Woods) has at least four touchdowns. Jared Goff is putting up a lot of yards but hasn’t been able to find the endzone. Meanwhile, the Rams are also using two primary backs in game script dependent ways (Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown), with rookie Cam Akers working in seemingly sporadically.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Game time: Monday 11/23 @ 8:15 PM EST
• Game line: Tampa Bay -4.0
• Over/Under: 48.5

Must-Starts

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

While Cooper Kupp struggles to find the end zone, his target share in the Rams’ offense provides undeniable upside. Kupp has gotten at least five targets in every game this season, including a 20 target game in Week 9 against Miami. Despite the workload, Kupp has struggled to produce a consistent scoring upside, scoring only twice on the year and exceeding 50 receiving yards just five times. The weakness of the Buccaneers secondary lies in their slot defense, which is where Kupp thrives. If anyone is going to find success in the Rams’ passing attack, it is likely him.

Chris Godwin (WR, TB)

Chris Godwin isn’t letting a finger injury slow him down. Since having surgery, he has compiled 12 targets, nine receptions, and 133 yards against the Saints and the Panthers. Godwin isn’t having the explosive season he enjoyed last year thanks to a myriad of injuries, but he has still been productive when he’s on the field. Godwin has at least six targets in each game this season and has recorded five receptions in five of six contests. He has gone over 60 receiving yards in four games as well. Like the Buccaneers, the Rams secondary is vulnerable in the slot, which could signal a big game for Godwin.

Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)

Rob Gronkowski hasn’t been stellar this year, but in the tight end hellscape, he almost has to find your starting lineup every week at this point. Gronk has at least 3 targets in nine of ten games this season and has five games with at least six targets. His reception yards have been wildly inconsistent, but he has once again emerged as one of Tom Brady’s favorite red-zone weapons. Gronk has a touchdown catch in four of the last five Tampa Bay games. The Rams are middle of the road guarding tight ends this season, allowing 7.8 fantasy points per week to them on the season. However, they have given up 458 yards and four touchdowns to tight ends this year on just 41 receptions.

Darrell Henderson (RB, LAR)

There is some risk attached to Darrell Henderson, but given how this game could play out, he may be the back to employ this week. Henderson is technically “the starter” in Los Angeles, and in closer games, he seemingly gets more work with Malcolm Brown serving as the pass-catching back. Henderson has five games with double-digit carries this season, but he has only combined for 15 carries the past two weeks. In that time, he has 75 yards and a touchdown. This will be a tough matchup for Henderson thanks to a Buccaneers Defense that is allowing only 15 points per game to running backs, but a low-scoring affair could tilt the workload in his favor.

Consider Sitting

Jared Goff (QB, LAR)

Jared Goff has struggled to take advantage against secondaries this season despite his array of weapons. Since Week 6, Goff is completing just 61% of his passes. While he has 1,075 passing yards, that has only equated to five touchdowns and three interceptions. That includes games against a beat-up 49ers Defense and the Seahawks last season. Goff has especially struggled against good secondaries this season. He will have a fight ahead of him against a Tampa Bay defense that is allowing just 16.4 fantasy points to quarterbacks per game. Tampa has allowed only 17 passing touchdowns but has generated 12 interceptions on the season.

Tom Brady (QB, TB)

Despite an absolute dud in Week 9 against the Saints (209 passing yards and three interceptions), Tom Brady has been on fire. Since Week 7, Brady has thrown for over 250 yards in three games. Even if you include the Saints game, Brady has nine touchdowns to three interceptions. Brady has yet to play a secondary like the Rams though. As previously mentioned, the Rams have given up just nine touchdowns on the season while generating eight interceptions. Their 14.2 fantasy points per game against quarterbacks is the second-best mark in the NFL this season. Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams are playing lockdown defense on the perimeter, which could mean a long day for Brady.

Malcolm Brown (RB, LAR)

Figuring out how the Rams want to utilize Malcolm Brown has been a headache all season. After getting 10 carries in Weeks 7 and 8, Brown only saw six carries for 33 yards against Seattle. Of course, he found the end zone twice, further complicating things. The one consistent aspect of Brown’s usage this season has come in games with passing situations, where he takes control of the passing down work. Since this game is likely to be a defensive showcase, Brown may see a reduced workload in favor of Darrell Henderson which makes him a risky start.

Robert Woods (WR, LAR)

It has been a weird year for Robert Woods. Woods has seen at least five targets in every game, but he has more games fewer than 40 receiving yards (5) as games with more than 40 receiving yards (4). He also leads the team in touchdowns with six total touchdowns (four receiving and two rushing). Woods will find himself in a tough matchup against Carlton Davis this week, a corner who has held his own all season for Tampa. You likely have to start Woods given where you drafted him, but if you have anybody else with matchup upside he isn’t terrible to stash on your bench this week.

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

After a couple of weeks of subpar production, Mike Evans has carved out a significant role in the Tampa Bay passing attack. Since Week 8, Evans has caught 15 of 24 targets for 196 yards and two touchdowns. Evans has been a magnet in the end zone all season, with eight total touchdowns on the year despite inconsistent target shares. Unfortunately, Evans will likely see the bulk of his work against Jalen Ramsey this week. Ramsey has been shutting wide receivers down all season for the Rams, recently holding DK Metcalf to just two receptions for 28 yards. Evans is just too risky to trust against Ramsey and the Rams.

Antonio Brown (WR, TB)

It didn’t take long for Antonio Brown to carve out a role in Tampa. In his two games as a Buccaneer, Brown has been targeted 13 times, catching 10 passes for 100 yards. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but Brady has shown that he has no problem looking his way in any passing situation. With Chris Godwin locking down the slot, Brown is forced to play outside when he is on the field, which means he draws a matchup against Darious Williams. Williams has been fantastic this season and worked well against Tyler Lockett in Week 10 (five receptions for 66 yards). With Brown knocking off the rust and plenty of other passing weapons at Brady’s disposal, Brown could struggle to make a big impact this week.

Potential Sleepers

Cam Akers (RB, LAR)

It is needless to say that Cam Akers has had a disappointing rookie season. Injuries have forced him to play a minor role in just seven games this season. The emergence of Darrell Henderson and the consistency of Malcolm Brown have forced him into a reduced role when he has played. Akers has less than ten touches in three of the five games he has played this season. He has yet to find the end zone and has only two targets for the year. There is a reason for optimism though. In the last two weeks, Akers has 19 carries for 73 yards and has had at least 20% of the offensive snap share. He also saw goal line touches last week against Seattle. If anything happens to Brown or Henderson, Akers would see an expanded role. He isn’t the best play, but if you are desperate at running back this week, he has a potential role.

Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)

The next two players on this list are here because we have no way of knowing which will emerge as this weeks hot hand for Tampa Bay. Last week, the player to utilize was Ronald Jones. Jones carried the ball 23 times for 192 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers, his biggest game of the season. He now has seven games with double-digit carries and four games with over 100 yards rushing. Jones has an inconsistent role in the passing of a game and also has shown a penchant for fumbling in recent weeks. If he can rip off a couple of big runs early, then he will get the work. But a slow day on the ground or a turnover could bury him on the bench, especially if Leonard Fournette gets hot. Based on the potential game script, Jones seems like the stronger play even though the Rams are only allowing 15 fantasy points per game to running backs.

Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)

Regardless of production on the ground, Leonard Fournette can certainly be considered the passing game back for the Buccaneers. Since Week 5, Fournette has 22 targets, catching 17 passes for 118 yards. He has also added 35 carries for 121 yards in that time. Fournette is seemingly a game script dependent option unless Ronald Jones does something to force Bruce Arians’ hand. The Rams have enough offensive firepower to turn this into a game where they take the lead, which does give Fournette some playable upside in the right situation.

Gerald Everett (TE, LAR)

Like every other skill position, the Rams employ two tight ends who both have pass-catching acumen. After three straight weeks of a growing target share in the Rams offense, Everett saw a reduced role against the Seahawks, catching just two of three targets for 27 yards. He also saw his lowest number of snaps (43) since Week 6 in a close game. The Rams have seemingly shifted to more three-wide receiver sets, which has Everett playing a more concentrated role. That being said, guessing Sean McVay’s offense is a difficult proposition, which gives Everett upside at a weak fantasy football position.

Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)

On the other hand, Tyler Higbee has been a colossal disappointment for fantasy gamers this year after he closed 2019 strong. Higbee has just 23 receptions for 296 yards and three touchdowns this season, but it is worth noting all three of those scores came back in Week 2 against the Eagles. Higbee has yet to exceed 60 receiving yards in any game this year, although he has at least 40 receiving yards in five of eight games played. Higbee is the lead tight end, registering at least a 72% snap share in seven of his eight games this year. He is the safer of the two Rams’ tight ends to play, but both will struggle to have a major impact.

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