Free XFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 7

March 31, 2023

Free XFL betting picks, odds, predictions for Week 7 (2023). Our best bets and top XFL picks for moneylines, over/unders and more.

The 2023 XFL season is officially upon us, and we are finally getting XFL and USFL action together for our viewing pleasure this Spring football season. Sportsbooks are now available on that device in your pocket all over the world, and so this is going to be a Spring Football season like no other. I'll be here every week providing sports betting advice for XFL action, so join me here and let's get Xtreme. Be sure to also read all our other weekly XFL fantasy football articles.

Also, don't fret...I'll be back, right here, to talk about gambling on the USFL in April; and if we ever start expanding into the realms of the European League of Football, Indoor Football League, Fan Controlled Football, and/or (I can only hope) the CPBL of Taiwan come baseball season–I'll be right here to discuss the full happenings across the board. Speaking of which: the USFL season kicks off on April 15th, so look out for my USFL Week 1 & Futures article in early April.

They might not be the #1...or #2 leagues...but damn it, we've congregated here because we love sports. So, when the powers to be in professional sports decide to supply our hungry demand for more year-round action, it would be fundamentally and morally wrong of us to not take a head-first dive into Spring Football education so that we can continue to enter DFS contests and place anxiety-inducing bets on games that most of our friends and family probably won't even know are being played--and if you're still reading this paragraph, I am fully confident that you share my sentiment on that point. Anyway, let's get to talking about the Spring Football league that could've only been originally brought to us by the minds behind the WWE. XFL 2023: let's rock.

Week 7 Power Rankings

1. D.C. Defenders: still undefeated with three wins against two opponents (St. Louis & Houston) with a combined 8-4 record.
2. St. Louis Battlehawks: their only two L's came to D.C.--well-rounded offense, a bit soft in the defensive trenches, but a solid kick return game and 13 forced turnovers (six INT, seven FF, 8 FR) to keep them dangerous.
3. Seattle Sea Dragons: two L's to start the season by a combined six points to the Defenders & Battlehawks (combined 10-2) with a defense slowly catching up to the high-octane offense and a week 5 signature win over the Houston Roughnecks.
4. Houston Roughnecks: 1-2 on the road--combined record of opponents beaten is 5-13, combined record of opponents who beat them is 10-2, and while they're there statistically in every category, one wonders if it is due to lesser competition, and now Brandon Silvers might be yielding to Cole McDonald.
5. Arlington Renegades: just traded for Luis Perez, which won't help much with their awful O-line and lack of weaponry. They have the least points for (78), yet the second-best points allowed (101). How are they 3-3 while looking so bad? Which smaller market Texas team will imp into the playoffs?
6. Las Vegas Vipers: between C.J. Avery, Maximilian Roberts, Pita Taumoepenu, this defense has play-makers too--but with Luis Perez now a Renegade, does Brett Hundley have the passing competence to feed the likes of Badet, Sweeting, & Lovett?
7. San Antonio Brahmas: the QB position for the Rock's squad is a disaster and their run-heavy attack still lacks efficiency--they don't score much, and neither do their opponents, which makes for a weird PF-PA difference of +1 for a 2-4 club.
8. Orlando Guardians: back-to-back improving performances on both sides of the ball and gave Seattle a bona fide scare in week 6. Even at 0-6, the optics have been more promising than that of Arlington, Vegas, and San Antonio over the last two weeks.

*After this past week, with how dangerous Orlando was and how horrible the games and QB play of Arlington, San Antonio, and Vegas were, it more realistically feels like #5-#8 are in a four-way tie, somehow with records from 0-6 to 3-3.

Week 7 MVP Ladder

1. Abram Smith (RB, Defenders)
2. Ben DiNucci (QB, Sea Dragons)
3. Brian Hill (RB, Battlehawks)
4. A.J. McCarron (QB, Battlehawks)
5. Jordan Ta'amu (QB, Defenders)
6. I give up--it's a wash between a handful of WR/RB and whatever is happening with the Houston QB situation.

Week 7 MVP Ladder for the Best Players on the Worst Teams (like everything--for fun & personal intrigue)

1. Cody Latimer (TE, Guardians)
2. Jeff Badet (WR, Vipers)
3. De'Veon Smith (RB, Renegades)
4. Jacques Patrick (RB, Brahmas)
5. John Lovett (RB, Vipers)
6. Charleston Rambo (WR, Guardians)
7. Sal Cannella (TE, Renegades)
8. Devin Darrington (RB, Guardians)
9. Luis Perez (QB, Vipers/Renegades)
10. Quinten Dormady (QB, Guardians)

Week 7 Defensive MVP Ladder (again, because I find it fun and intriguing)

1. Emmanuel Ellerbee (LB, Roughnecks)
2. Trent Harris (LB, Roughnecks)
3. Michael Joseph (DB, Defenders)
4. Tim Ward (DL, Roughnecks)
5. Tuzar Skipper (LB, Sea Dragons)

Seattle Sea Dragons at Arlington Renegades (Friday, March 31st, 7 PM)

SEA (-4), O/U 37.5

Best Bet: Sea Dragons (-4) & Under 37.5

The Arlington Renegades made a trade with the Vegas Vipers to bring in Luis Perez at QB. That's a solid B+ for effort, but it doesn't really matter if it's Luis Perez, Kyle Sloter, or Drew Plitt, because the problem with the Renegades offense lies in their lack of play-making weaponry and porous offensive line.

Kyle Sloter is big-time prone to major mistakes and Drew Plitt doesn't appear to be anything special, but I'd wager that they'd have had a few good games too had they been in Perez's shoes in Vegas with Badet, Sweeting, and Lovett to target all over the field as opposed to dump-offs to big Sal or three yards per carry, courtesy of De'Veon Smith. With those options and a wet paper bag of an O-line, Arlington could've really benefitted from a quarterback like D'Eriq King, Cole McDonald, or even Brett Hundley (since he wasn't starting in Vegas).

Arlington has managed just 42 points over the last four games, and while their defense has proven decent against the bottom-tier opponents, they lost to Houston and St. Louis by a combined 22 points (11 per loss on average--duh), so they have also proven unable to hold tough against a good, well-rounded offense.

Seattle's high-octane passing game has slowed up since they began their winning ways, but things should open up on the field when Morgan Ellison returns to the backfield (listed as a limited participant in practice this week)--and regardless of whether that's the case, the Sea Dragons have outscored their last three opponents (including Houston) by a combined 23 points (9, 7, & 7).

If Arlington lets Seattle reach 20+, this will easily be a double-digit win, and even if Seattle remains hampered, I don't even see it being worse than a 16-11 victory and cover for us. Finally, if the Sea Dragons do reach 20+, they're probably capped around 22-25, and with the Renegades being incapable of more than 12 as it stands, go with the under all the way. This is a clash of my two favorite teams as a fan, so Friday night is a momentous occasion.

San Antonio Brahmas at Vegas Vipers (Saturday, April Fool's Day, 3 PM)

VGS (-2.5), O/U 38.5

Best Bet: Vipers (-2.5) & *Under 38.5*

There was a moment early in the year when Jack Coan looked like a quarterback that could take the Brahmas to the playoffs--and then that moment ended. But now they're down Jack Coan, they're down Reid Sinnett, they're down Kalen Ballage, and they gave Kurt Benkert about thirty seconds on the field this past week due to the short-notice of his onboarding, but Juwan Pass looked decently serviceable by San Antonio's standards considering his mobility.

Digest this: their leading receiver (and third in the league at the position) is TE Alize Mack with 118 yards and one touchdown on 14 receptions. Even still, the emergence of Jacques Patrick has provided efficiency and big-play potential when compared to Ballage, and their ability to slow the game down makes them second-worst in the league in points for (89) but tops in points allowed (88) by 13 points.

Luis Perez has been shipped to Arlington to sling the rock around in a much easier division, which means Vegas is the Brett Hundley show again, giving him another chance to make good on that XFL-best salary. This is another team I struggle to get a grasp on.

They definitely started slow, but between their flashes of offensive danger displayed against the Defenders on one occasion and in a close loss to Seattle and the plethora of statistics they've produced along the way, they sit at 1-5, conclusively behind the rest of the North Division with a lone win against the also-improving yet 0-6 Orlando Guardians in a barn-burning 35-32 shootout.

Despite the 29-6 trouncing last week at the Battlehawks' hands, no one could've come away from those back-to-back contests with Arlington with optimism towards either squad. There's enough difference-making on this Viper defense now at week 7 to either cause some key turnovers or to limit the output of the Brahmas offense to near the 11 points per game average they've had since week 3.

With the mobility of Hundley and the arsenal of play-making for Vegas, San Antonio will be spread too thin to hold Rod Woodson's crew to the 10 or less they'll need to win. I think at minimum, the Vipers should get a win by 13-10 with an absolute maximum capacity on the final score of maybe 18-15. With that range of possibilities, we confidently take Vegas to cover--and we hammer...HAMMER that under.

D.C. Defenders at Orlando Guardians (Saturday, April Fool's Day, 6 PM)

D.C. (-9.5), O/U 45

Best Bet: Defenders (-9.5) & Over 45

I'm going to keep the takes on these last two games much shorter. I think Orlando wins on the ML--April Fool's. The D.C. Defenders have proven that they are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the XFL field, and even with Orlando's offense taking a turn for the better and putting a higher-scoring scare into a couple of teams including Seattle won't change the course of this game or prevent Jordan Ta'amu and Abram Smith from running all over the place and picking the Guardians defense apart.

I do think that Orlando will be able to put up a decent amount of points though on the Dormady-Latimer connection, particularly in garbage time. With that, I see a realistic final score as 30-16. I'm much more confident that the Defenders win by double-digits than I am that this hits the over though.

St. Louis Battlehawks at Houston Roughnecks (Sunday, April 2nd, 2 PM)

HOU (-3), O/U 44

Best Bet: Battlehawks (+3) & Over 44

This is a game that I would've had much less of an idea on before the Roughnecks got thoroughly out-played by the Defenders last week and to a greater extent than St. Louis was in either of their two previous meetings, and these last two weeks have exposed Houston as a bit of fool's gold, but still clearly the best team in the South Division. The Roughnecks have, statistically, more defensive play-making, but how much of these respective defenses have shown up in the bigger games still leaves the disparity as a moderate question mark.

The Battlehawks offense has proven to be very evenly-balanced on offense, and with Brandon Silvers showing vulnerability in the wake of Jontre Kirklin's season-ending injury, I have more questions about the Roughnecks plan moving forward, though Cole McDonald as a starter here would actually be an interesting matchup considering the issues that D.C.'s two-headed running-QB monster have presented to St. Louis.

I think the wrong team is favored here, so I love St. Louis by three and on the ML. A realistic final score here is probably 26-20 for the Battlehawks, and even if they lose, I don't see it being far off of a 28-26 or 26-24 final.

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