May 4, 2024

RotoBrady provides his picks and analysis for betting on every game of Week 6 of the UFL season.

What a week of picking outcomes. I went 4-0 on point spreads and 0-4 on over/unders. One thing that we clearly saw in Week 5: the top four teams in the league put a real beat-down on the four worst teams in the league, and the distinction between those two groups in the 2024 UFL campaign has never been clearer. One thing that was also made clear: running the ball has proven to be the separating factor. A high percentage of the league's leading passers are leading teams with losing records (Luis Perez and Jordan Ta'amu hold a 2-8 combined record), while five or six of the league's best rushers are on the best teams in the league. The XFL has also evened the score against the UFL by midseason, with the tally at 4-4.

Now halfway through the regular season (giant bummer), I'm coming back from a quirky week, and so let's rejoice at the fact that we aren't getting any same-time regional games and make picks for these Week 6 matchups.

Power Rankings

1. Birmingham Stallions (+120 to win it all--still great)
2. St. Louis Battlehawks (+150--this is looking better and better)
3. San Antonio Brahmas (+500--now we are getting into some real values)
4. Michigan Panthers (+1100--probably the best "dark horse" option at this point)
5. D.C. Defenders (+1500--potentially the last viable play but that is being generous)
6. Houston Roughnecks (+7000)
7. Arlington Renegades (+10000)
8. Memphis Showboats (+4500--umm, no. Go Boats though)

Week 6 Picks

Birmingham Stallions at Memphis Showboats (Saturday, May 4th, at 12PM ET)

Birmingham (-11), Over 42.5

The good news for Memphis today--they won't be too badly hampered by injury, as Daewood Davis, Vinny Papale, and Vontae Diggs all appear to be good to go. The bad news is that they are playing the Birmingham Stallions in Memphis (where the homefield advantage is minimal), who are fresh off of a 32-9 throttling of the Houston Roughnecks, while the Showboats are recovering from a 35-18 defeat at the hands of the Michigan Panthers. On one hand, it is pretty good that Memphis was able to put up 18 on Michigan, but on the other, you can't give up 35 to the Panthers, even when they have a more pass-friendly QB at the helm. The Showboats offensive line continues to struggle, still making it hard for the backfield to totally get going and providing grossly inadequate protection for Case Cookus throughout the season. I like Troy Williams, but in a John DeFilippo offense, he is not utilized properly.

The Birmingham Stallions should beat the breaks off of the Memphis Showboats at noon. Weird things happen in Spring Football, and you always question where a team's head might be at when playing a team on the road that they should easily beat, but Skip Holtz has reason to dislike the Memphis Showboats organization, and with Adrian Martinez starting and the Birmingham backfield looking to be a full go, there is no reason to stop laying points on the league's best team. I think Memphis could score more points than Houston did last week, and that's all we need. I think we see the Stallions win with a final score range of 32-11 to 35-17.

Houston Roughnecks at St. Louis Battlehawks (Saturday, May 4th, at 3PM ET)

St. Louis (-11), Over 47.5

Both teams will be missing a couple of significant pieces on defense, and the St. Louis O-line is a little banged up. Other than that, the Houston Roughnecks have Mark Thompson and Keke Chism in the lineup, Reid Sinnett is starting, and the Battlehawks continue to tout a ridiculously impressive slew of skill-position players, with Jacob Saylors now third in the UFL with 224 rushing yards and Hakeem Butler coming off of a monster Week 5 performance in the 45-12 demolition of the D.C. Defenders on the road. I fully maintain that the Houston Roughnecks are a different team with Thompson in the lineup, that just doesn't seem to matter when you play the Birmingham Stallions. Sinnett has established himself as a pretty solid passer in this league, but this once highly-formidable defensive front is essentially down to the one star in Reuben Foster, but that won't be enough to stifle this high-powered St. Louis offense in front of 30,000+ fans.

For what the Battlehawks did to the Defenders last week, I'd be seriously overthinking this one to not lay eleven. I do think that the Roughnecks could probably muster as many points , if not more, than D.C. did last week. If Thompson and Pledger get the ball enough and the combo of Chism and Hall makes a couple of big plays between them, I think 12 is reasonable, because this St. Louis defense is not on the same level of the Stallions. Give me St. Louis to take this game by a score of 40-9 to 45-13, hitting another over.

Arlington Renegades at Michigan Panthers (Sunday, May 5th, at 1PM ET)

Michigan (-6), Over 42.5

The Michigan Panthers are back to 3-2 and second in the USFL conference standings after a thorough 35-18 Week 5 win over the Memphis Showboats behind another strong showing by the backfield combo of Wes Hills/Matthew Colburn II, and TE Cole Hikutini broke through for 64 yards on three receptions in conjunction with a fine showing by Danny Etling. Jake Bates has finally missed a long kick, but he's still the best at the position in the league. Hills, Frank Ginda, and Etling are all full-go for Sunday, and so I expect Michigan to be primed and ready to do what they do best in front of a meager 7,000 or so fans at Ford Field. As for Arlington, they dropped to a previously unfathomable 0-5 in a 25-15 defeat to their rival San Antonio Brahmas. Look--the Brahmas are better than I thought after the first couple of weeks, and Arlington kept themselves in the game with three picks of Quinten Dormady and another high-volume passing game for Luis Perez, but the ground game was atrocious. Anywhere between 1.2 and 3.7 yards per carry for ball-carriers is not going to cut it, and what is this business of Lindsey Scott Jr. getting so few looks?

Part of me says that Arlington ML (+180) continues to make some sense--it is very hard to believe that they will go winless, and Luis Perez could be a lot for this Panthers offense to keep up with. I just trust what I've seen in the Panthers so much more than that of the Renegades. If your backfield was that bad last week against San Antonio, how will it fare against this defense? If you couldn't score more than 15 points against San Antonio despite forcing three INT, what can you do today? I think we could see a similar score to last week for the Panthers, but maybe they score a little less. I could also see a situation where this game hits under and the Renegades get their first win, but that isn't the betting scenario I'll be taking. Give me Michigan to take this game 24-17 to 27-17. I suppose I slightly lean over again.

San Antonio Brahmas at D.C. Defenders (Sunday, May 5th, at 4PM ET)

San Antonio (-1.5), Over 42.5

As we just discussed, the Brahmas handled the Renegades 25-15 in a highly-motivated rivalry matchup last week on A.J. Smith's revenge tour. Even though Quinten Dormady gave away three balls, San Antonio's current backfield duo of John Lovett and Morgan Ellison combined for 179 yards last week with Lovett finding the end zone twice, and the receiving options got a very well-rounded split of Dormady's 164 yards passing. The D.C. Defenders in Week 5? That was an ugly look getting absolutely destroyed in front of a lot of people in the second-best home environment that the UFL has to offer. Ta'amu throws for 101 yards (with three picks) and three ball-carriers combine for 84 yards? This team's defense is just not what it was in 2023, and Reggie Barlow has had major difficulties finding an offensive flow without any strength coming from the backfield.

Even still, at home, I definitely think there is credibility to taking D.C. ML (+105) in a bounce-back, revenge spot. But the Defenders have looked the same, arguably worse, since the Week 1 27-12 dismantling in San Antonio, and the Brahmas have really only looked better and better, so I have to once again opt on the side of laying the mere 1.5 points. I think this could get ugly once again, but I still see the Brahmas winning 85 games out of 100 against D.C., even if about 50% of those wouldn't be blowouts. As for the score--it would be hard for D.C. to be much worse than last week. I could see this game ending with a final score anywhere in the range of 25-15 to 30-18, so again I will slightly lean over. These O/Us feel deceptive this week.

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