RADIO
The 2024 NBA playoffs are underway and tonight there are three games on the schedule. After playing the opening two games on the road, the Pacers, Mavericks, and Suns return home tonight. Two of those series are split and the Phoenix Suns find themselves in a virtual must-win situation, down 2-0.
The last time I wrote here was on Monday. Unfortunately, I was unable to pick up a victory and have sat with that the last few days. I wasn't too far off, so I'm not going to let it bother me. Feeling a bit refreshed, I'm ready to attack tonight's picks and get back on the winning side.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 5:30 p.m. EDT on Friday, April 26. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Milwaukee Bucks (+6) at Indiana Pacers (221.5 total)
After only scoring 94 points in Game 1 and losing by 15, the Pacers were able to regroup and find their offense in Game 2. This game looked more like Pacers basketball, with them scoring 125 points and shooting high percentages.
In Game 1, Indiana couldn't survive the first-half onslaught by Damian Lillard and found themselves down 69-to-42. Lillard had a big first half in Game 2, scoring 26 points, but the Pacers were able to counter. Pascal Siakam scored 21 in the opening two quarters and finished with a playoff career-high 37 points.
The Pacers are playing their first playoff game at home in three seasons and I like them to cover the first quarter. Indiana won the first quarter 30-to-26 on Tuesday and shot the ball well. They have been a high-scoring first-quarter team all season, especially at home, where they put up over 32 points per game. The Pacers shot over 53 percent on FGAs and over 40 percent from three. Normally, I would say something like this is unsustainable, but they did play over 40 games at home.
In the IST, the Pacers averaged 31 points per game. Playing three games at home, they averaged 30.3 points while shooting over 42 percent from three. I point back to that because those crowds were supposed to mimic some kind of playoff atmosphere and the Pacers fared well in that environment. If they can stop Damian Lillard from averaging 17 points in the opening quarter, I really like their chances.
Both of these teams will likely play more offensively than defensively. I'll back the home squad, who should be fired up to start this game.
another look at his incredible performance 👀 pic.twitter.com/Vg9uuVpRub
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) April 24, 2024
The Pick: Pacers First Quarter -1.5 (-118 FanDuel)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+4) at Phoenix Suns (207.5 total)
With their backs against the wall, it's hard not to take the Suns in this spot. Their fourth-quarter numbers scare me, so I'm going to take them in the first half. Phoenix was 22-19 ATS in the opening two quarters at home this season.
In Game 1, they fell behind 61-to-51 in the first half. In Game 2, they led 51-to-50 going into the break. Kevin Durant is leading the team with 14.5 points per half, with Devin Booker scoring 10. The Suns' two stars know they need a good start to build some kind of cushion because the team hasn't played well in the third or fourth quarters.
Last year, when Phoenix returned home down 2-0 to Denver, they won the first half 67-to-52 in Game 3 and 63-to-61 in Game 4. They also won both of those games to tie up the series. In those two games, Kevin Durant averaged 23 points in the first half on 77 percent field goal shooting, while Devin Booker averaged 21. I'll take these two in this spot and trust them to elevate their games. I don't love the way Phoenix plays but I also would be shocked if they got swept. I know this isn't taking them to win the game but if they don't start well, I think they'll be in trouble. At home, the Suns had a 4.2 net rating in the first half, which was the 12th-best among home teams.
One possession at a time.@MountainAmerica | #ItTakesEverything pic.twitter.com/k6d0t5DZtq
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) April 25, 2024
The Pick: Suns First Half -2.5 (-115 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Los Angeles Clippers (+4.5) at Dallas Mavericks (211.5 total)
The Mavericks shook off a pretty humiliating loss in Game 1 and evened the series up in Game 2. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined for 55 points but it was their effort on the defensive side of the ball that was incredibly impressive. Dallas won a low-scoring game 96-to-93.
As good as the defense was, I just think the Clippers' total is too low and I'm going over. Kawhi Leonard played 34 minutes in his return. The Clippers forward scored 17 points on 7-of-17 shooting and 0-for-5 from three. He's now had two full days to rest and I expect him to be sharper tonight. Los Angeles averaged 115.6 points per game this season and was in the top six in field goal and three-point percentage. They were fourth in offensive rating and had notable rust, with Leonard back in the lineup after winning Game 1 without him.
Dallas's defense was great and definitely improved down the stretch but they still only finished 18th in defensive rating. Opponents shoot a high percentage close to the basket and the Mavericks finished 20th in opponents PITP. The Clippers were in the upper half of the NBA at scoring in the paint but have only averaged 39 points in the first two games. During the regular season, they averaged over 50 points in the painted area. This team can score inside and hopefully, their coach reminds them of that.
The total just feels low when we've seen the Clippers be a good offensive team all season.
Dunks that make us all hyped 🙌
🔨 Clippers Dunks presented by @HerdezBrand pic.twitter.com/UZM5SpnF6h
— LA Clippers (@LAClippers) April 25, 2024
The Pick: Clippers Team Total Over 103.5 (-114 FanDuel)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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