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Ryan Kirksey's third base (3B) fantasy baseball breakouts and draft value picks for 2024. He expects these 3B sleepers to return big value for fantasy baseball.
The third base position is simply overflowing with young and burgeoning talent right now. Fantasy baseball rosters in 2024 have plenty of choices at the hot corner this year. Including several all-around contributors, steady veterans, and hot young prospects and players poised to break out.
Those breakout options are where we will focus today. Finding players that can provide a positive return on investment is always crucial during draft season, especially late in drafts.
All four of the third basemen below have a chance to blow away their average draft position and return massively on the investment needed at drafts. These players prove it will be fine to wait on the position and take a third baseman later in drafts.
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Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
"Josh Jung already broke out last year!" is what you might be saying to yourself right now. While that might be partially true, Jung lost 40 games due to injuries and rest. The potential for another level after 23 home runs and 70 RBI last season is real. That next level showed itself on the biggest stage last year when Jung was finally completely healthy for the postseason.
In his 70 plate appearances in the 2023 playoffs, Jung slashed .308/.329/538 with three home runs and eight RBI. Of his 20 postseason hits, eight of them went for extra bases, and that was against some of the best pitching the league could throw at him.
Home Run 2️⃣0️⃣ for Josh Jung💥
(via @BallySportsSW)pic.twitter.com/vuJnGrD1zJ
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 25, 2023
In just his second taste of MLB pitching last year, he improved his zone contact rate, outside zone contact rate, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. He battled a broken thumb throughout the second half of 2023, but with that ailment now long behind him, Jung appears to be a strong value since he is going past pick 110 in most drafts.
Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
Royce Lewis is the one player on this list whom drafters will have to reach to acquire his services or be prepared to offer the extra couple of bucks at the auction table. After his massive streak of grand slams in 2023, and a 58-game sample where he slashed .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs, Lewis won't be coming cheap this year.
The Grand Slam king is SO BACK
Royce Lewis sent this ball to space 🚀🚀pic.twitter.com/4SNIy51O1B
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) March 1, 2024
Lewis is a player capable of slugging 25 home runs and stealing 25 bases while possessing elite plate skills (23% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate last season). He should also have the prime clean-up spot in the Twins lineup this year, with on-base machines Carlos Correa and Edouard Julien hitting in front of him.
He already is taking advantage of the Twins' fly ball-heavy approach as he hit more fly balls than grounders last season. Lewis had an elite 11.7% barrel rate last season plus a 42% hard-hit rate and 114 miles per hour max exit velocity. All of these numbers are harbingers of what should be a massive power year for the 24-year-old third baseman.
Jake Burger, Miami Marlins
At a time not too long ago, a move to Miami to play for the Marlins would not be the upgrade you would want for a young star with loads of raw power and run production ability. However, you can count me in as someone who thinks this move from the Chicago White Sox to the Miami Marlins is going to be very good for Burger's numbers in 2024.
All of a sudden, Burger finds himself batting cleanup behind Luis Arraez, Tim Anderson, and Josh Bell right at the time his power stroke emerged in 2023. In his first full big-league season, Burger blasted 34 home runs and was able to cut his strikeout rate and increase his walk rate from his debut campaign in 2022. In Miami, there will be no playing time questions (as there were with Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez). Burger is going to get all the playing time he can handle this year.
In 2023, he also made gains in zone contact rate, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity. His 118.2 mph max exit velocity was sixth among all players last season. He was also top 10 in barrels per plate appearance. Those usually spell big things ahead for power numbers and it's possible a 40-home run season could be in Burger's future.
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
For the last third baseman on the list, let's go with a bit of a dart throw. Junior Caminero might not even make the Tampa Bay Rays out of spring training with Isaac Paredes slotted to take over third base this year. However, with the fluidity of the Rays lineup, and the position flexibility that Caminero can bring, it is a safe bet that Caminero gets more than the 36 plate appearances he saw in 2023.
Still just 20 years old, Caminero has plate discipline and bat skills well beyond his years. He has at least a .299 average and at least a .359 OBP in every stop since he was 18 years old. Last season, he turned on the power with 20 home runs in just 81 games at Double-A. That gave him a call-up to the big club late in the season where he proceeded to have a home run and seven RBI in just seven games.
Junior Caminero's power is so effortless to all fields.
Truly a 35+ homer bat waiting to happen who can also add a solid AVG and a handful of steals.Fully expect him to join the Riley/Devers 3B tier by the end of 2024.pic.twitter.com/4SdOO0lRn6
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) February 27, 2024
Caminero has a 70 grade for his raw power (with 80 being the maximum), and the Rays should find a way to get him into the lineup regularly by season's end. If Jonathan Aranda, Amed Rosario, or Jose Caballero struggle this season, Caminero will be the first one called up to take over.
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