X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Finding Under and Overvalued 3B Using Expected Draft Values

Ben Rolfe uses RotoBaller's Expected Draft Values, which analyzes data from the last 10 fantasy baseball seasons, to pinpoint plus and minus values on draft day in 2019 and identify undervalued and overvalued MLB third basemen.

We've been rolling out our Expected Draft Values series, starting with Nick Mariano's look into some undervalued players and overvalued players. Today, we're going to give you some undervalued and overvalued players who qualify at third base.

As a quick primer, Expected Draft Value is the value you would historically expect, on average, from a given draft slot. In other words, Expected Draft Value lets you put a stat line next to every pick in the draft... if the player you draft performs better than expected, you get positive value. If the player you draft performs worse than expected, that's negative value. As we all know, a fantasy draft is all about maximizing the potential positive value from every pick.

For example, we can say that "if you draft a power + average hitter 97th overall, your Expected Draft Value should be a line of 285-26-76-75-4. That's your 'break even point'. If you draft a player at 97 who performs better than that, you win, or at least put yourself one player closer to winning.  For a full explanation of our Expected Draft Value research, see Nick's article's from yesterday, linked above. >With the introduction out of the way, let’s dive into some undervalued and overvalued third basemen!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Undervalued Third Basemen to Target

Justin Turner - 3B, LAD

NFBC ADP: 109
Expected Return for a Power + Batting Average Hitter Drafted 109th: 286-26-75-75-3
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: 297-22-82-82-4

The value with Turner is mostly found within his batting average. As you see above a player who contributes in both batting average and power and it taken around the 109th pick usually contribute a .286 batting averge. However, Turner has the potential to get into the .300 region.

If you look at his Statcast xBA for each of the last two seasons, then his current batting average projection is actually his floor. Power wise he is a little below what we might expect at this level but those extra four or five home runs can be found later in the draft, batting average cannot.

Maikel Franco - 3B, PHI

NFBC ADP: 267.5
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 265th: 222-28-76-64-3
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: 258-25.5-80-64.5-1.5

2018 was a better season for Franco, as he hit 22 home runs with a .270 batting average in just 465 PA. Given his current ADP Franco can afford to regress a little in his batting average this season and still return value. Over the last three years, he averaged 23.7 home runs per season, and has not been below 20 in any of those years. The batting average is the bigger question mark as it has fluctuated from .230 to .280 over the last four seasons.

His xBA across those four season has been pretty much dead on his current projection at .256. If Franco reaches his projection then he is more than likely to find himself among the top-200 hitters for fantasy which means a substantial profit on his low ADP.

 

Overvalued Third Basemen to Target

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

NFBC ADP: 63
Expected Return for an Power + Batting Average Hitter Drafted 63rd: 302-28-86-80-4
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: 299-21.5-78-75.5-5

Guerrero's fantasy value has received a massive pump thanks to the success of recent prospects in the majors. Guerrero is an extremely talented hitter but his expectations are absolutely sky high. His value has gotten more realistic since his oblique injury. However as you can see from the numbers expected above, his current projection doesn't meet the break even point we would need to return value from a power and batting average hitter drafted 63rd.

The issue with the way Guerrero was being drafted earlier in draft season is that the majority of his upside was being negated by the high price. His current price is better but it is still a round or two higher than the value his current projections indicate.

Joey Wendle - 2B/3B TB

NFBC ADP: 225
Expected Return for a Power, Speed Hitter Drafted 225th: 242-15-60-68-16
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: 266-9.5-55.5-57.5-12

Wendle had a fascinating 2018 season, hitting .300 with seven home and 16 stolen bases. However, his current draft price is not only assuming he can do that again but that he can go one better. His batting average is the most interesting as his actual number last season (.300) was .039 higher than his xBA (.261). Therefore, it is reasonable to expect some regression this season. Even though regression down to his xBA from last season would still be an improvement on the batting average expected return for his ADP, the other numbers are a concern.

Wendle did manage to succeed in 80% of his stolen base attempts last season, thanks to ranking in the 81st percentile in sprint speed. However, repeating his 16 stolen bases is likely his upside. In terms of power, it s a major concern that Wendle had a barrel% of just 2.7 last season, leading to a exit velocity ranked in just the 47th percentile. It would be a surprise if Wendle finished with double digit home runs this season, and the lack of upside in either his power or speed is what makes him overvalued at this price.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Kyren Williams

Rams Not Willing to Pay Kyren Williams Top-Market Money?
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Christian Kirk

the No. 2 WR in Houston?
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Jerome Ford

the Likely Starter for Cleveland to Begin 2025
Chig Okonkwo

"Poised" for Best Season of Career
Xavier Watts

Falcons High on Xavier Watts
Xavier Restrepo

Training With Star Wideouts
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF