It’s the most wonderful time of the year – football is finally here. The beginning of fantasy football brings with it hope for every team out there, as everyone is 0-0 and full of potential. It’s also a time when fantasy owners may be having delusions of grandeur about how good their draft was and how strong their team will be this season.

But the draft is just Stage 1 of the process of making the fantasy playoffs and winning it all. In order to get to the promised land, it’s critical you know who’s going to put up big numbers and who’s going to disappoint.

Sit/start decisions are crucial in fantasy football and this weekly boom/bust list runs down the players who are set to have monster games, and others with whom you should temper your expectations

 

Potential Booms for Week 1

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers: Not that you would’ve benched him anyway, but you should feel extra confident with the reigning MVP heading to Soldier Field to face the Bears. Rodgers dropped bombs against the Bears in 2014, going for a combined 617 yards, 10 TDs and 0 INTs. You don't need any extra reason to start Rodgers on Sunday, but you can expect a HUGE game, even minus Jordy Nelson.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins: The Miami Dolphins offense is poised for big things this season, and it will get started in Week 1 in Washington. Even forgetting about the mess that has been the Washington Redskins this offseason, Tannehill will be facing a defense that surrendered more fantasy points to quarterbacks in standard leagues than any other team in football. This is a gift matchup to start the season for Tannehill, who will have Lamar Miller, Jarvis Landry, Jordan Cameron and Kenny Stills at his disposal.

 

Running Backs

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: With DeAngelo Williams shipped to Pittsburgh, Kelvin Benjamin out for the season and Jonathan Stewart finally healthy and all alone in the backfield, he is going to be fed the ball early and often. This pick is based on expected workload and the chance for Stewart to finally showcase his talents. He has a career average of 4.6 YPC, and in the three games last season where he received 20 or more carries, Stewart responded with a total of 352 yards and a TD.

Chris Ivory, RB, Jets: If Ryan Fitzpatrick was your starting quarterback, wouldn’t you want to put the ball in someone else’s hands? So do the Jets. Chris Johnson is gone and there’s not much reason to fear Zac Stacy or Bilal Powell. This leaves the door wide open for Chris Ivory to pound the ball hard into Cleveland’s weak rushing defense. The Browns allowed six 100 yard rushers and 10 rushing TDs a season ago. The run defense also gave up an average of 98.9 yards per game to running backs who carried the rock 17 times or more.

 

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams, WR, Packers: With Jordy Nelson out with an injury, and Randall Cobb not at 100 percent and commanding more defensive attention, the stage is set for a fantasy explosion by Davante Adams. Rodgers makes receivers into stars, the Bears passing defense is more of a rumor than anything else, and they will also be worried about Eddie Lacy in the backfield. Expect Adams to see an uptick in targets and catch plenty of passes on Sunday.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs: I know. Alex Smith can’t throw the ball downfield and the offense didn’t produce one score by a WR last year. But Jeremy Maclin caught 85 passes for 1,318 YDs and 10 TDs in 2014 as an Eagle, is a huge upgrade over the departed Dwayne Bowe, and is the clear cut No. 1 receiving option in Kansas City. The team also didn’t sign him to a $55 million contract to waste him as a decoy. He will see a bunch of targets. The Houston Texans also gave up 22 TDs to receivers last season, so it isn’t as if they have a lockdown defense.

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars: Allen Robinson has looked great during the preseason and will be relied upon even more following the injury to TE Julius Thomas. Carolina’s secondary may be without CB Josh Norman, and if QB Blake Bortles takes another step forward in his second season, Robinson will likely be the biggest benefactor.

 

Tight Ends

Jordan Cameron, TE, Dolphins: A big game for Tannehill likely means a big game for one of his newest toys, Jordan Cameron. The TE hasn’t has never had a QB the caliber of Tannehill and has shown the ability to be an elite level TE when targeted. It was just two years ago when Cameron caught 80 passes for 917 yards and 7 TDs. Against a weak Redskins passing defense, look for Cameron to break into the endzone at least once.

Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers: The 9th year TE had a monster 2014, with 84 receptions, 1,008 yards and six TDs – that was as the second option on the team. With Kelvin Benjamin out for the rest of the season, Olsen will be the clear cut No. 1 offensive option and will be a terror for defenses, beginning in Jacksonville.

 

Defense/Special Teams

New York Jets, D/ST: Although the defense looks stacked, with Muhammad Wilkerson, Darrelle Revis and the gang, this pick is more about how bad the Cleveland Browns will be on offense this season. With Josh McCown as the starting quarterback, Isaiah Crowell in the backfield and not a single receiving threat to scare anyone, this will be a feast for the Jets defense and every other defense that follows. Add in the fact that the Jets will be at home, and it’s highly likely that this will the first of many awful performances for Cleveland’s offense.

 

Potential Busts for Week 1

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts: Chances are good that you used one of your Top 3 picks to land Andrew Luck as your starting QB, so benching him is not an option. But if you're expecting him to have a Luck type of game against the Bills in Buffalo, you will be disappointed. In 2014 only one team allowed fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Bills. Add in the fact that the defense is led by guru Rex Ryan, and one can only expect the unit to improve. Plus the signing of Frank Gore signaled a desire for a more balanced offense where Luck doesn't throw 40 times per game.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks: A brand new contract extension and the signing of stud TE Jimmy Graham may make it appear as though all of the momentum is on Russell Wilson's side, but the St. Louis Rams may have other ideas on Sunday. Seattle's offensive line took serious losses this offseason, with the trade of Max Unger and departure of James Carpenter. Most of Wilson's value is tied into his ability to run the ball effectively. With offensive line questions, a non-blocking TE, and an offense that relies heavily on Marshawn Lynch, Wilson could be in for a very average day.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers: Newton's passing yards have declined each season he has been in the NFL, and last year he set a career low in rushing yards with 539. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin severely hurts Newton's value, and he is clearly not gaining the same type of yardage on the ground that led to a sensational rookie season. Coming off of career lows across the board, it's tough to trust Newton, even if it is in Jacksonville.

 

Running Backs

Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns: Someone out there is relying on Isaiah Crowell to be a No. 2 or No. 3 running back - hopefully it isn't you. Crowell might be the best offensive weapon in Cleveland, which says more about the Browns' lack of talent than it does about Crowell's ability. In New York against what may end up being the league's best defense, this is an awful matchup for the running back.

Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins: We've already seen Alfred Morris's numbers dip from 1,613 rushing yards in his rookie year to 1,074 last season. Much of this decline mirrors the decline in play from the QB Robert Griffin III and the Redskins as a whole. Now that Kirk Cousins has been named the starting QB and Morris will be losing carries to Matt Jones, his numbers seem likely to decline more. Miami will also feature a sick defensive line, with Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake, Earl Mitchell and Olivier Vernon. Don't expect much from Morris.

 

Wide Receivers

Andre Johnson, WR, Colts: Being that I'm not expecting a huge game from Luck, it's hard to see Andre Johnson having a big game as the No. 2 receiver and maybe the third option on the team. Buffalo has a very good defense, which may have improved, so I'll need to see Johnson be dominant again before I can trust him against a potentially elite defense.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills: There are just too many things going against Sammy Watkins this season. In 2014 he showed flashes of greatness, but did over half of his fantasy damage in just four games. Add in offseason hip surgery, a big question mark at QB, and a coach in Rex Ryan who is committed to the run, it's tough to envision a big Week 1 for him. It certainly doesn't help that he could have Vontae Davis of the Colts shadowing him the whole game.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Jets: Never mind the highly mediocre QB they'll have in Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall is the No. 1 passing target and will face All-Pro corner, Joe Haden. Marshall will likely end up having some big games in Gang Green, but don't expect him to win many battles against Haden and the Browns passing defense in Week 1.

 

Tight Ends

Coby Fleener, TE, Colts: He was a Top 10 TE in 2014, but with the amount of offensive weapons in Indianapolis now, it's tough to have any faith in Coby Fleener. Buffalo will have a strong showing on defense and it seems unlikely that Fleener will get the amount of targets needed for him to have a big game.

 

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