5 Fantasy Football League-Winning Sleepers: Sneaky Top-12 Upside (2026)

May 24, 2026

Matt Donnelly's five sleepers and potential league winners for 2026 fantasy football. ADP values with top-12 positional upside, including Cam Skattebo and more.

The start of the 2026 fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and before you know it, draft season will be here.

Fantasy drafts are not won in the first or second round; it’s those mid-to-late picks that are often the difference between a good season and fantasy glory.

With that in mind, here are five sleepers with top-12 positional upside who fantasy managers should be targeting if they have championship aspirations this season.

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Kyler Murray, QB, Minnesota Vikings

For Kyler Murray, two of the last three seasons have been underwhelming, and injuries have been a major reason. Last season, Murray played in only five games; however, he still averaged a respectable 16.2 fantasy points per game (QB20).

Removing last season from the equation, since 2019, Murray has never fallen outside the top 12 in fantasy points per game, averaging a QB8 finish over those six seasons. Looking at that six-season sample, Murray has averaged no less than 18.1 fantasy points per game in any season, with his best performance coming in 2020, when he averaged 24.4 fantasy points per game.

Kyler Murray to Marvin Harrison Jr.!

We have a one-score game in Arizona.

SEAvsAZ on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/rihmRe0STr

— NFL (@NFL) September 26, 2025

Even if you take last season's per-game production and expand it to 17 games, the 275 fantasy points would have been good enough to finish as QB13. Take that one step further and use the next-worst season of his career (2024) and the 18.1 fantasy points per game, and play that over the course of 17 contests.

It would yield 3,077 fantasy points and would have slotted him between Bo Nix and Jared Goff as the QB8 last season.

For Murray, remaining healthy is the key to this whole thing. Murray is now in a position with the Minnesota Vikings similar to his 2020 season, when he had Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, and Christian Kirk at his disposal. He now has Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings.

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Cam Skattebo, RB, New York Giants

Let us reintroduce you to our favorite crayon-eating running back, Cam Skattebo.

Early in the 2025 season, there was a seven-game stretch between Weeks 2 and 8 in which Skattebo was averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game and firmly situated among the top-10 running backs in fantasy.

Sure, it was a small sample size, but when you produce three top-12 fantasy weeks at the running back position, it should put you up for consideration as a back who has that sneaky upside to finish as an RB1 by season's end.

Let’s look at the numbers. In eight contests, Skattebo averaged 4.1 yards per rushing attempt, finishing his rookie campaign with 410 rushing yards. With no changes in the Giants backfield this offseason, one can safely project that Skattebo is in line to receive 250-plus carries, which projects as a 1,000-yard season.

Those numbers are a soft projection, considering we saw him carry the ball and touch the ball on 339 occasions in 13 games during his final season at Arizona State.

Cam Skattebo receiving TD 🚨

NYGvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/ni6YpamzKq

— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025

It’s hard to get a real sense of what kind of load Skattebo is capable of at the NFL level, but with his college profile pointing toward a back with workhorse capabilities, a 300-touch-plus season for Skattebo is not out of the question.

To finish among the fantasy relevant at the running back position, two things must happen. One, the volume needs to be there, and with Skattebo, that is likely. Two, running backs have to stay healthy, which has yet to be seen considering Skattebo's style of play; however, if he can stay in the lineup, look out.

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David Montgomery, RB, Houston Texans

Last season was David Montgomery’s worst fantasy season of his career, as the former Detroit Lions back finished as the RB27 in PPR formats. Before last season, Montgomery had been a mainstay in the RB2 tier in terms of fantasy production, not once falling outside the top 24, and even had an RB4 season back in 2020.

For Montgomery, much of his time spent in the backfield has been in a timeshare, whether that be with D'Andre Swift or Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery’s ceiling has always been somewhat capped. Yet, despite the limited opportunities, Montgomery has been solid for fantasy managers thanks to his 4.1 yards per carry career average and his 59 career rushing touchdowns over 105 contests, which is a rushing touchdown on 4% of his rushing attempts.

During his first two seasons, Montgomery nearly averaged 250 carries per season for the Chicago Bears. If he were to see that kind of volume in Houston, accompanied by his career touchdown rate, we are looking at double-digit touchdowns for the eighth-year back.

Let’s work the math a little. If a back averages 4.1 yards per carry and averages 250 rushing attempts, that’s 1,000 yards and 100 fantasy points. Now, let’s add in the 10 touchdowns based on touchdown rate, and we have an additional 60 fantasy points.

Montgomery has also proved over his career to be an asset in the passing game, averaging 2.2 receptions per game. If he were to play 16 games, that would equate to 35.2 fantasy points, pushing his total just over 195 fantasy points without adding receiving yards.

If Montgomery averages 8.2 yards per reception and he has a base of 35 receptions, that’s 287 receiving yards and 28.7 fantasy points to add to the 195, pushing that projection to 223.7, which would have been good enough to finish as the RB14 last year. With some play above expectation, an RB1 season is within grasp.

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Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts

When you ink a $114 millon deal in the offseason, are you still classified as a sleeper candidate?

Alec Pierce is coming off a career season in which he caught 47 passes for 1,003 receiving yards, the first 1,000-yard season of his career. Pierce has been known for his big-play ability, posting yards-per-catch totals of 22.3 and 21.3 in each of the past two seasons.

However, in fantasy, even with a career year, Pierce was the WR28 overall in PPR formats. On a points-per-game basis, he finished as the WR26 (12.2), both of which put him in WR3 territory.

Several things need to go right for Pierce to crack the top-12 fantasy receivers this season. First, Daniel Jones needs to come back 100% after suffering a season-ending Achilles injury. Second, to play off the first part, Jones needs to avoid regression and prove that last season was not an outlier for his career.

Additionally, Pierce will need volume. Averaging 18.7 yards per reception is great and all, but if the volume is not there, the fantasy outlook is capped. Over Pierce’s four NFL seasons, that 18.7 yards per reception has only resulted in 45.8 receiving yards per game.

With Michael Pittman Jr. being dealt in the offseason, Pierce has an opportunity to capitalize on the 111 vacated targets. If Pierce can take those 111 vacated targets and turn them into 33 additional receptions, he could see that receiving total eclipse 1,200 yards even with a regression in yards per reception going from 21.3 to 15.0 this season.

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Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville has plenty of sleeper candidates who could push for top-12 fantasy production among their peers at their positions here in 2026. Among the candidates, we have a pair of receivers in Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers, as well as running back Bhayshul Tuten, who are certain to provide dividends on any investment.

As strong an option as the aforementioned is, Brenton Strange is the best value, given the positional advantage a top-12 tight end provides fantasy managers every week.

In 12 games last season, Strange would finish with 46 receptions on 60 targets, resulting in 540 receiving yards and three touchdowns. While respectable totals, that’s not something that is going to excite the fantasy world. Strange’s 118 fantasy points placed him 23rd among tight ends behind the likes of Colby Parkinson, Theo Johnson, and Chig Okonkwo.

Trevor Lawrence to Brenton Strange TD!

JAXvsTEN on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/7WDhrUO1wb

— NFL (@NFL) November 30, 2025

Among tight ends to play in at least 10 or more contests, Strange’s 9.8 fantasy points per game was the 15th-highest total. Now, what should excite fantasy managers is the stretch run at the end of the season, where Strange would average 14.3 fantasy points per game over his final seven contests (TE8). Over that period, Strange was ninth in targets (36), sixth in receptions (26), and fifth in touchdowns.

If Strange can get off to a good start here in 2026 and remain healthy, we’ve seen him produce at TE1 levels. Seeing that he is currently being viewed in the 17-20 range among tight ends, there is some value to be had.

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