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Tim Heaney's 2025 fantasy baseball outfield draft values, sleepers with upside who had uncharacteristically poor seasons and are primed to bounce back in 2025.
The outfielder landscape in most fantasy baseball mixed leagues is so packed with useful options, that dissecting which names are "rebound candidates" might come down to arbitrary differences in value or simply having more at-bats the following year (due to regaining after an injury-shortened season or an expanding role).
Recency bias and simple supply/demand push many intriguing outfielders down draft boards, sometimes accidentally, to present ideal bargain deals for proven names coming off a lagging year.
Following the format of the 2025 Fantasy Baseball Infield Hitters Rebound report, this outfielders edition will use Average Draft Position (ADP) from early selections in National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues to target enticing names with ADPs generally higher than 150. The first name is an exception but needed a spotlight due to the upside.
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Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 128.8
Amazingly, heading into his age-30 season, Arozarena remains in arbitration team control for the next two offseasons.
Again, this is a relative rebound, as he achieved 20+ homers and 20+ steals for the fourth straight year but fell desperately short in batting average (.219), which dinged his end-of-season value.
He became a slightly more flyball-oriented hitter but otherwise kept nearly afloat to past indicators.
Arozarena nearly accidentally improved upon being traded from the Tampa Bay Rays to the M's. His BABIP shot up from .249 to .323.
One overall concern is how he struggled versus fastballs last year, per Statcast:
| Year | Run Value | RV/100 | BA | SLG | wOBA | K% | Whiff% | HardHit% |
| 2023 | 17 | 2.3 | 0.254 | 0.545 | 0.425 | 27.4 | 32.8 | 54.7 |
| 2024 | -5 | -0.7 | 0.172 | 0.374 | 0.315 | 35.7 | 29.1 | 55.3 |
An encouraging sign is that his hard-hit rate against the pitch actually climbed slightly, so this might come down to a mechanical swing change that could correct his bat path to produce better results against 4-seamers.
Detractors will point to the dead-last Statcast Park Factor (91) for Seattle's T-Mobile Park as a reason to avoid Arozarena, but the former five-category star should find ways to make up for any potential HR limitations across other stats like steals and a rebounding batting average.
This discount surrounding the 29th-ranked outfielder in early NFBC ADP is a sound chance to take. While past top-50 overall ADP selections in past seasons might've been aggressive, his floor will struggle to sink that low again.
Lane Thomas, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 164.55
With the overall increase in stolen-base sources, especially in the crowded outfielder player pool, Thomas has slipped in early offseason leagues due to his 2024 woes.
Following his breakthrough 2023 season (.268/.315/.468, 28 HR, 101 R, 86 RBI, 20 SB), he still swiped 32 bags in 2024 but failed to contribute much elsewhere (14 HR, .237/.309/.400).
As for the power loss, Thomas endured an apparent hitch in his swing that prompted his launch-angle sweet spot to crater, leading toward too many cans of corn:
| Year | HR | xHR | xSLG | Launch Angle | LA Sweet Spot% | IFFB% |
| 2023 | 28 | 26 | 0.436 | 10.8 | 36.8% | 9.4% |
| 2024 | 17 | 14.7 | 0.377 | 17 | 31.5% | 19.6% |
Notice that 10.2% jump in his infield-fly-ball rate.
Most of his other batted-ball stats, results, and indicators remained true from year to year. If Thomas can improve his point of contact, then the power could surge back into play.
Thomas already showed a strong recovery after the Washington Nationals traded him; he clubbed 7 of his 15 homers in a mere 187 plate appearances post-swap.
Rumors say Thomas could be on the move again, with Cleveland possibly shopping him. An exit from Progressive Field, which carries a 95 overall Park Factor for right-handed bats (5% below average) and 78 RHB HR Factor, would further improve his rebound odds.
Many will point to his SB totals being in jeopardy due to his low walk rate, but the revamped pickoff rules have increased swipes across the league, and Thomas should continue to benefit.
Regardless of which uniform he'll wear to start 2025, the late-blooming 29-year-old carries a bargain price tag for a middle-to-late-rounds power-speed combo, with a complementary-piece floor that could carry fantasy teams for a few weeks.
Plus, for contract-year overachievement believers, this remains an excellent opportunity to cash in.
Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies
ADP: 243.64
'Oh wow, banking on someone who plays at Coors Field to rebound. How brave!' To be fair, given how many believers used a top-75 mixed draft pick on him in 2024, regaining faith in the former Cleveland prospect might require some arm-twisting this offseason after he hit just three home runs and missed much of the season due to health woes.
This sophomore slump wasn't just a mental barrier. Physical hindrances limited his chance of following up on his monstrous 2023 breakout (.297/.389/.542, 20 HR, 60 R, 62 RBI, 20 SB in 424 PA).
A spring-training back injury that Jones and the Rockies initially did not seem bothered by eventually served as the reason Jones was placed on the injured list in late April. Then, Jones sustained a knee injury during his recovery and missed an additional month after a return in May.
Throw in a health scare that put his newborn daughter in the neonatal care unit after birth that pulled him away from, rightfully, focusing on baseball.
Hopefully, assuming all family troubles stabilize along with his health could put him back on track in on-field play. (Sometimes, these sad instances affect on-field performance, too, and must be objectively mentioned when talking about performance.)
Jones could regenerate the power light bulb that went off in 2023. Jones ranked 10th among all hitters with 20-plus homers in No-Doubter HR Rate (55%), with 11 of his 20 clearing fences in all 30 parks per Statcast. That figure topped the final results for Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Marcell Ozuna, and more common names featured near the top of Baseball Savant leaderboards.
A fair caveat to note when buying him: Even at his peak form, Jones' high K%, high BB%, and high BABIP profile leaves Jones's fantasy output vulnerable to violent swings of batted-ball fortune.
For this price point, however, Jones drafters could initially deploy him more frequently in lineups during periods with more home games and assignments against right-handed pitchers. Any demonstrative swing back toward his 2023 line would produce a massive profit for anyone who buys the dip.
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