RADIO
It's finally here, folks. We made it to Friday, relatively unharmed. Our reward is a fifteen-game Friday slate with lots of wonderful pitching options to choose from, which is a nice shake-up from the mess of options the previous two days. Every team is playing under the lights tonight, so we've got a monstrous Main slate and your lineups need to be locked and loaded at 7:05 EDT.
Before I jump into player selections and analysis, I like to share a few Vegas lines that can be helpful when making decisions on who to stack, which pitchers to roster and which players are best left on your bench. We'll start with run projections, and there are currently three teams tied for the highest mark at 5.6 - the Brewers, Indians, and Rockies. Following that group, we have the Giants (5.5), Dodgers (5.4), Mariners (5.4) and finally the Blue Jays and Tigers (both 5.1) to round out the notable lines. As for favorites - helpful in determining cash game pitchers and pitchers to avoid - the Dodgers and Blue Jays are the heaviest favorites at -163 and -162, respectively, and the Brewers (-157) and Indians (-150) have pretty favorable lines as well.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 6/16/17. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options, and of course, value plays.
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Offensive Stacks
Cleveland Indians versus Nick Turley
The Indians have been a somewhat disappointing offense this season, but in their past series they picked up a little as they averaged over six runs a game and the bats are finally showing signs of life. Tonight, they have the highest run projection in Vegas (5.4) for any team NOT playing in Coors. As such, they could fly under the radar a bit while still having a very optimal situation. Opposing starter Nik Turley is largely inexperienced, not really a prospect at 27 years old, and has been hit hard in a very short sample. There are a number of ways you could stack a team with the talent they have, but my favorites of the group are Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes, Edwin Encarnacion and Francisco Lindor.
Also Consider: Milwaukee Brewers versus Miguel Diaz
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Carlos Martinez - SP, at BAL ($9,800)
I love the thought of getting to use CMart against a team with a lineup that, for the most part, has never faced Martinez live. I think the pitcher has a distinct advantage in a matchup of this kind. But there's a lot more to love than just my thoughts on first time meetings. Martinez has quietly been pretty brilliant this season. Mini-Pedro, as he is often referred to, has been been dazzling in six of his last seven starts, beating out value in each matchup (except for one hiccup) pretty damn easily. Curiously, his price has only risen $700 in this stretch, and as such, he's a value price tonight with a good chance of hitting and surpassing his price implied value. For the 2017 season, Martinez boasts a solid WHIP of 1.1, an excellent HR/9 of 0.7 and a very strong strikeout rate of 9.1 K/9. Tonight, I like his matchup for the fact that Baltimore's projected lineup has struck out in 27$ of their at-bats versus right-handed pitching this year and Martinez's hard hit rate of just 24% over his last three starts is pretty damn convincing too.
Also Consider: Max Scherzer - SP, at NYM ($12,400) and Alex Wood - SP, at CIN ($8,600)
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Salvador Perez - C, at LAA ($3,400)
I'm normally a heavy-on-the-splits guy, but in this spot, I'm leaning more on recent batted ball results and the opponent, Jesse Chavez. Perez has been crushing the ball over the last two weeks, evidenced by his 51% hard hit rate and favorable 45% fly ball rate, but with little production to show for it. His batted ball luck also tells us he's been quite unlucky in this stretch, which is fairly obvious but worth noting. As for Chavez, he has been very kind to his opponents over his last three starts, allowing a wOBA and ISO over .400 and .300, respectively.
Also Consider: Yasmani Grandal - C, at CIN ($3,100)
Matt Carpenter - 1B, at BAL ($3,600)
Like many days, there are lots of first basemen to like today and many I would consider having in my cash game and GPP rosters. It's almost as if FanDuel should add a Utility spot or something. Anyway, Carpenter here is my favorite because of the price, his recent hot streak and a favorable matchup and venue. Kevin Gausman has allowed over a .450 opponent wOBA over his last three starts and Carpenter and his teammates stand to benefit tonight. Over the past two weeks, Carp has a hard hit rate of 46% and owns a .373 wOBA split for the season against right-handed pitching.
Also Consider: Anthony Rizzo - 1B, at PIT ($4,400)
Jose Pirela - 2B, at MIL ($2,800)
Considering the fact that Pirela has been smashing the ball and hitting at the top of this San Diego order, it's a wonder why his price has stayed below 3K. As such, he's priced as a very nice value play tonight with big time upside. For the season, he's hit right-handed pitching incredibly well, albeit in a small sample size, posting a .587 wOBA and a .429 ISO in that stretch. He gets a park upgrade tonight and a date with Javy Guerra, who has allowed a .374 wOBA over his past three starts.
Also Consider: Robinson Cano - 2B, at TEX ($3,300)
Mike Moustakas - 3B, at LAA ($3,500)
The Moose has been on fire lately, crushing the ball and reaping the benefits, as he's posted at least 12 FanDuel points in each of the Royals' last three games. In a stretch of the past 15 days, he's posted a hard hit rate of 38% and a very impressive batted ball distance of 238 feet. For the season, he's been handling right-handed pitching with ease, as he's flashing a .386 wOBA and .294 ISO.
Also Consider: Kris Bryant - 3B, at PIT ($3,900)
Corey Seager - SS, at CIN ($3,700)
Is there anything not to love about this matchup? Seager, who is one of the most talented young hitters of the game, gets a major park upgrade, an ideal spot in the order (nearly always slotted second), and faces off against a subpar pitcher in Tim Adleman. Seager has not only posted a 44% hard hit rate in the past two weeks, he also has excellent splits. In 2017, those figures against right-handers in wOBA and ISO are .405 and .205, respectively.
Also Consider: Trevor Story - SS, vs SFG ($3,400)
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Cody Bellinger - OF, at CIN ($3,800)
Don't let the negative split differentials scare you away. Yes, it's true Bellinger is a reverse splits guy that has hit southpaws harder than right-handers in his roughly 50 game sample in the MLB, but his numbers against righties are still massive. Most importantly, since this is a relative game, they're much stronger than many of the other outfielders' best splits. The pitching matchup is a favorable one and Bellinger's wOBA and ISO splits, .379 and .362, are elite.
Giancarlo Stanton - OF, at ATL ($4,000)
Stanton has a hard hit rate on over half the balls that he's batted in the past two weeks. It's almost hard to believe. Recently, his production has caught up to his smashing, so he hasn't been "unlucky" per-say, but he should have a little more to show for what he's accomplishing. He gets a nice park upgrade tonight and faces a largely inexperienced Sean Newcomb. I already gushed about the Statcast data, but his splits are absolutely worth mentioning, too - .498 wOBA, .452 ISO.
Domingo Santana - OF, vs SD ($3,700)
The price tag certainly doesn't scream "sleeper" or undervalued, but he's essentially been a little of both in the daily fantasy world this season. He's in good situations constantly and still, his ownership is always much less than I'd expect. I'm hoping he floats under the radar again tonight, because that would give us great leverage in tournament pools. He faces a pitcher that has been battered in a handful of his MLB starts, and he owns a .378 wOBA split against righties this season.
Also Consider: Jorge Bonifacio - OF, at LAA ($3,100)
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