Dynasty Stock Watch for 2018: WR Risers

When it comes to dynasty, the season never ends. Sure, that statement has become cliche at this point, but it's also true: a random Thursday in May can become an important dynasty moment because reports emerge that Chris Godwin is going to get more playing time for the Buccaneers. Some people are smiling because they've held onto Godwin for over a year, others are plotting trade offers to get him, and people like me are staring at Adam Humphries on their roster and trying to hold back the tears.

There's a ton of wide receivers in the NFL, so it can sometimes be hard to keep up with things, which is why RotoBaller is here for you. In this first installment of our wide receiver dynasty stock watch, I'll look at a handful of receivers who are trending in positive directions this off-season. In the forthcoming second part, we'll go the other way and look at players who are heading the other way.

So, who should you be targeting now before their hype goes through the roof? Read on and find out. (Current position in RotoBaller's dynasty wide receiver rankings listed in parentheses.)

Dynasty Wide Receiver Stock Watch: Risers

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (WR8)

The departure of Jordy Nelson and the way that Adams played last season while Brett Hundley was under center are big factors in the meteoric rise of Adams this offseason. Last year (in a re-draft league, thankfully), I traded Adams after the Rodgers injury because I was so sure that the Packers offense would shut down, but Adams responded with great numbers. He ended 2017 as the WR12 in PPR and gets Aaron Rodgers back this year.

Quarterbacks had a 110.3 rating when targeting Adams last season, the sixth best quarterback/receiver rating combination in the NFL. He was fifth in contested catch rate. Second in red zone receptions. He's the unquestioned number one receiver in Green Bay now and the team added a top tight end in Jimmy Graham, whose presence should keep Adams from seeing double coverage near the goal line, as Graham was one of the league's best end zone threats last season.

If there's an argument against Adams right now in dynasty, it's that you can probably trade him while his value is sky high and get a strong return.

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears (WR14)

Let's dig into some interesting stats, courtesy of Addison Hayes, whose site FF Statistics is chocked full of useful information. Here's what I found interesting: we all know that Matt Nagy is the new head coach in Chicago. Nagy was formerly the offensive coordinator in Kansas City under Andy Reid. Reid's only had two top-10 fantasy wide receivers EVER as an NFL head coach. One of those, Tyreek Hill, came last season under Nagy's tutelage. Nagy showed that he can call plays that take advantage of the skill sets of his players.

Robinson will be just 25 this season. He's coming off a torn ACL, which brings in some obvious risk, but PlayerProfiler rates Robinson in the 91st percentile for catch radius and the 86th percentile for burst score. Robinson was the WR6 in PPR back in 2015 on an offense led by Blake Bortles. I like his fit in Chicago with Nagy and second year quarterback Mitch Trubisky, even if Trubisky rarely went deep last year. Robinson sits at the top of a weak wide receiver depth chart and should have plenty of opportunities to impress, now and moving forward.

Cameron Meredith, New Orleans Saints (WR54)

Free agency was great for Meredith, who goes from being somewhere between the first and third option in Chicago to being the (probably) number two receiver in New Orleans. The Saints have a lot of receivers, but they don't really have many people who pose a long term threat to Meredith and number one option Micheal Thomas: Ted Ginn is nearing the end of his effectiveness and rookie Tre'Quan Smith is no guarantee to be a productive professional player.

Like Robinson above, Meredith is coming off a season missed due to a torn ACL. There are concerns, especially seeing as burst and agility are two of the metrics that Meredith rates highly in, but this is 2018 and knee injuries aren't necessarily catastrophic. Meredith's 2016 season -- 66 catches for 888 yards and four touchdowns -- seemed to come out of nowhere, but he's clearly got the skills to be a consistently productive NFL receiver. The landing spot helps as he'll get to spend some time with Drew Brees.

The 25-year-old will have a chance to carve out a role that could be sustainable moving forward. In deeper dynasty formats, I see no reason not to take a flier on Meredith.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WR39)

THE HYPE HAS ARRIVED.

There's been a ton of talk about Chris Godwin as a dynasty asset ever since Tampa Bay picked him in third round in last year's draft. Godwin finished fourth among Tampa Bay wide receivers in fantasy points last season, behind Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, and Adam Humphries. Evans is the clear WR1 in Tampa Bay, but that number two job feels wide open this season: Jackson averaged a career-low in yards per catch and yards per game last season, while Humphries isn't really anything special. Here are Humphries's workout metrics from PlayerProfiler:

That's not great. Here's what Godwin's metrics look like:

I know these things aren't everything, but Godwin profiles to be able to make plays down the field better than Humphries, which could earn him the starting role on the outside opposite Evans. Godwin's seven-catch, 111 yard performance in Week 17 is a great step to build on for the young wide out.

Albert Wilson, Miami Dolphins (WR130)

My wife is a huge Chiefs fan, so I've watched a lot of Albert Wilson. I've also looked at the other pieces in that Dolphins receiving corps plenty of times and yeah, I'm picking up as many Wilson shares as possible.

Wilson is currently ranked 130th in our rankings after being 120th in our last update. That's low, in my opinion, because Wilson best fits the needs of a post-Jarvis Landry Miami team. He should clearly be stepping into the starting role in the slot, but Miami decided that they actually needed to sign two slot receivers in Wilson and former Patriot Danny Amendola. I'm not going to sit here and say that Amendola's chances of having an impact, but he's 32 years old and has never had more than 689 receiving yards in a season. If the Dolphins want to continue operating an offense that looks like the one it has with Landry in the slot, they'd be better suited letting the younger Wilson get a crack at the role. If he earns it, the rest of the Dolphins receivers inspire so little confidence in me that I think Wilson could end up as the team's top fantasy WR.

Allen Hurns, Dallas Cowboys (WR72)

There's something to be said for picking a quality short-term player at a discount. The Cowboys let Dez Bryant go, drafted Michael Gallup, and signed Allen Hurns this offseason. If Gallup takes time to get acclimated to the pro game, Hurns is in line to put up quality numbers at a huge discount. The last time we saw Hurns have a clearly delineated role near the top of an NFL offense and didn't miss time, he was the PPR WR18 in 2015.

Let's take a quick look at receivers who are ranked near him:

I have more confidence in Hurns than in any other name in that range. I know Gallup impedes his long term value, but he can help a team win now.

So, these were some of my risers. Stay tuned for part two, where I look at wide receivers who are increasing in risk this offseason.

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