DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Masters With Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Matthew Fitzpatrick and More Golf Advice (2024)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Masters

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Masters

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

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TeeOffSports membership

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Field

Field Size: 87
Cut: Top 50 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 20

Last Five Winners Of The Masters

Expected Cut-Line 

Augusta National

7,510 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

Whether you are a casual golf fan or a die-hard who eats, sleeps, and breathes the sport weekly, Augusta National doesn't need much of an introduction since it is the most iconic venue in the world.

Wide-open fairways nearly 20 yards in width will present the feel of a course that is a long driver's paradise. However, that particular skill will only take you so far when we look at the massive undulation and multiple-tiered perspective of the putting surfaces on all 18 holes.

That is one of the reasons the long-term data has generated a 4.6% enhancement when looking into the dispersion of scoring for strokes gained around the green. I don't want to make it sound as if struggling with that portion of your game is a death sentence for success, although you better be elite in other areas if you want to traverse green complexes that typically takes multiple showings to get accustomed to its unique layout.

That is one of the reasons no first-timer has won this tournament since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. It doesn't mean someone playing this early in their career can't find success. Still, I tend to eliminate any golfer from my outright pool who isn't making a minimum of their third appearance at the property. You can get more of that answer from my 'Seven Deadly Sins' article.

Overall, a sharp short game that can scramble and salvage scores with three-putt avoidance on these fiery greens will be at a premium. Distance will help since we are discussing an open property extending over 7,400 yards, but that criteria set is marginally overvalued in a vacuum situation. Yes, you likely need to be in the top 40% of the field with that portion of your game to garner high-end success, but having massive length is not the ultimate decider.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

Weighted Strokes Gained: Minimal Rough But Hard Scoring (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Long Courses (10%)

Weighted Short Game: Par Saving (10%)

Weighted Birdies: Aggression (10%)

Distance + Long Iron Play + Aggression (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

Unlike most weeks, when Scottie Scheffler is a locked-in option up top because of his safety and upside, I do believe there are other routes to consider here at Augusta because of the high-end nature of this field and the elevated pay scale that only drops to $6,0000. In my opinion, that $12,100 salary finally forces gamers into a decision. 

Does Jon Rahm enter consideration since he will experience a LIV-related decrease in ownership?

Does the negative stigma around Rory McIlroy at Augusta make you want to get marginally contrarian and start lineups with the Irishman?

Want to save nearly $2,000 from Scheffler? Brooks Koepka offers that and five major titles.

Or does the first-time narrative of Wyndham Clark suppress his ownership enough that gamers get a discount for a golfer who sets up perfectly to find success at the Masters, even if he loses some of the upside appeal since a first-timer hasn't won this event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979?

We will see which of those routes comes most to fruition over the next few days, but my early lean is to go contrarian with my stance. That puts me in the path of wanting to be overweight to McIlroy, Rahm and Clark.

1. I can't stop playing Rory at Augusta, and 2. No other players in this field delivered as many top-ranked totals in my sheet as McIlroy after he graded number one for weighted birdies, distance + long iron + aggression and expected scoring for the Masters.

Yes, I know. I have a sickness.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I am curious to see if Joaquin Niemann's ownership stays steady because that could generate quite a leverage spot. I am not sold on whether it will happen because this article is being written on Saturday and only pulls data from one place. However, it is something to look into since my numbers loved Niemann's potential here at Augusta.

I don't expect many to stand in solidarity with me when I say McIlroy and Schauffele are my two favorite plays on the board from the opening two sections because the public perception about their lack of win equity has run rampant in the space, but I do believe that is why both possess long-term equity compared to consensus narratives.

Schauffele cracked the indomitable Scheffler inside my model, grading number one for pure upside at the Masters. His overall aggression totals also might be ideally suited for him to find real win equity because of a short game that exceeds most of these other stars near the top of the board.

If Schauffele had provided a single win this season, this price would have been closer to $11,000. I will take the discount and over 40 consecutive made cuts.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson, and Tony Finau were the only three players to grade as positive totals compared to their overall rank. We did get a few upside climbers like Max Homa and Sam Burns crack consideration because of the higher-than-expected ceiling outcomes. Still, I will continue this narrative of attacking public perception and go with Finau as my favorite play from this group. 

The American dominated tee-to-green during his second-place finish at the Houston Open, gaining a staggering 14.4 shots to the field. Some of the putting returns will be alarming because the putter has been volatile for almost a year. However, I will take solace in the three consecutive events gaining with the flat stick before Houston. 

Finding a better golfer on this board who encompasses distance, iron proximity, DraftKings price and around-the-green acumen will be a difficult task. 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

That chart gives you a pretty good indication of where I am higher or lower than the market. 

There are many different ways to approach this section when determining our favorite values on the board, but let's go with Matthew Fitzpatrick. 

I assume the space will be lower on him than names like Sahith Theegala after disappointing at the Valero Texas Open, but Fitzpatrick landed as one of only nine players in this field to survive the 'Seven Deadly Sins' inside my article. 

Fitzpatrick's back-to-back top-14 finishes at the property have shown this steady maturation, where every finish over the past four years has gotten steadily better, and the hard-scoring nature should only propel his upside potential.

$6,000 Options To Consider

I'd rather move up to Harris English at $7,000 over any of these players in the range.

Keegan Bradley and Chris Kirk have playability when you get stuck in this section, but it does feel as if English is a noteworthy enough upgrade for $100-$300 more.

Favorite Play Each Section:

$10,000+ - Rory McIlroy
$9,000+ - Xander Schauffele
$8,000+ - Tony Finau
$7,000+ - Matthew Fitzpatrick
$6,000+ - I'd rather go to Harris English in the $7,000s - Keegan Bradley/Chris Kirk if searching for value in the $6,000s.
(You will need to dip into the $6,000s when going for top-heavy stacks).

Pricing not dropping into the $5,000s massively alters this board. Game theory has intriguing options this week. 

Win More With RotoBaller

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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