DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - BMW Championship Golf Advice (2023)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The BMW Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The BMW Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
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In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

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Field

Field Size: 50
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 18

 

Last Five Winners Of The BMW Championship

2022	Patrick Cantlay	-14
2021	Patrick Cantlay	-27
2020	Jon Rahm	-4
2019	Justin Thomas	-25
2018	Keegan Bradley	-20

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022
2021
2020
2019
2018

 

Olympia Fields (North)

7,366 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass/Poa

The PGA Tour will return to Olympia Fields for the first time since 2020, highlighting a venue that turned into one of the season's most challenging non-major championships tests. Jon Rahm hoisted the title that year at four-under par in a playoff over Dustin Johnson, but do we expect the same demanding ordeals that golfers received during its first go-around?

Measuring in as a Par 70 at 7,366 yards, Olympia Fields has four-inch Kentucky bluegrass rough, with the rest of the course consisting of a Bentgrass/Poa mixture. That initial factor explains why the field has taken a bomb-and-gouge stance when we look at the 48% driving accuracy mark sitting below the tour average at 61%, meaning golfers have been conscious in trying to get as close to the green as possible since everyone is going to miss these narrow fairways off the tee.

Ten holes possess a bogey or higher percentage of over 20%, marked by eight holes bringing water into play, and the 91 bunkers littered throughout the property only add to this claustrophobic feel of a venue surrounded by trees and thick rough.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Olympia Fields	PGA Average
Driving Distance	298	283
Driving Accuracy	48%	61%
GIR Percentage	57%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	54%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.55	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Strokes Gained Total (30%)

 

SG: Total Medium-To-Long Par 70s (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total Thick Rough (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Firm + Fast (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total Hard Scoring (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Weighted Scrambling (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Golfer	Odds	Risk	Win
Jason Day	55	0.14	7.7
Tyrrell Hatton	33	0.22	7.26
Sungjae Im	45	0.16	7.2
Max Homa	28	0.26	7.28

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are seven players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

• Safest Play: Rory McIlroy ($12,100) - Can Rory win an event in single digits? I always tend to believe that narrative has been overblown because a handful of his wins have come with everyone other than himself in that single-digit range, but it is not hard to understand why he is the favorite for this week's event. McIlroy's first-place grade for strokes gained total on medium-to-long Par 70s, driving distance and strokes gained out of thick rough are three quality returns that could propel him into the winner's circle, making it an easy sell for why he and Scheffler are sharing the top spot on most betting boards.
• Most Upside: The top five win equity favorites are in this section of my model for a reason.
• Favorite GPP Play: Scottie Scheffler ($11,600) - We are splitting hairs here, but I do believe Scottie Scheffler should be the favorite to win the BMW Championship. The profile isn't perfect because of the putting + sand save percentages, but I am not sure anyone in the world plays a firm and fast test better than the American. As I always say, more complex scoring alleviates some of the putting woes since fewer putts need to be made to find high-end success. If someone near the top crashes my outright card, my money would be on Scheffler.
• Fade: Jordan Spieth ($10,000) - Did the Jordan Spieth fade work at the FedEx St. Jude Championship? No. But it doesn't mean Spieth was a quality play when we dive into his returns over four days. I will say that I think this event is exponentially better for his potential than what we got last week and generates some contrarian potential. However, it still feels like a mispricing where I would rather play Xander Schauffele if the ownership is close between the two. If he comes in low enough, I don't have an issue swinging for the fence, but we are talking numbers/data here, which means Spieth is the lowest quality of these $10,000+ names before diving into a more complete projection in popularity.
• Most Likely Winner: Scottie Scheffler ($11,600)

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Tommy Fleetwood ($9,700) - I can't get myself to bet Tommy Fleetwood to win an event at 20/1, but could this be the week Fleetwood finally gets himself over the hump and into the winner's circle in a 50-man field? The metrics say there is a realistic chance with all his top 10 returns across the board, but let's keep an eye on his ownership before going wild in DFS. Cash-game participants can pencil in the Englishman, although large-field GPP contests present a unique ask since I would rather play Xander Schauffele when directly comparing at half the ownership.
• Most Upside: Max Homa ($9,500) - There is an argument to be made that I placed too much emphasis on strokes gained putting for a course that likely will play in the single-digit range. However, let's not overlook that Homa jumped to first in my sheet for projected strokes gained total at Olympia Fields. Homa experienced a 13-spot improvement in weighted approach for the track and had an eight-position advancement in strokes gained off the tee. Anything 25/1 or better should be sufficient to take a shot at his outright total, and the ownership is respectable for DFS compared to his counterparts.
• Favorite GPP Play: Max Homa ($9,500)
• Fade: Lucas Glover ($9,100) - I likely ran too large of a sample size for Lucas Glover that didn't consider his recent putter change, but it is not as if that caused the American to grade outside the top-16 of my model last week during his win. I don't believe Olympia Fields is a conducive course fit for a player that is more accuracy than length when talking about his game, and the long-term history of playing at challenging courses generates a troubling answer for one of the hottest players in the world. Certain head-to-head opponents might turn into a rare two-unit wager if any book offers it. I am keeping a close eye in that sector of the market.
• Most Likely Winner: Tyrrell Hatton ($9,000) - I could easily swap Max Homa here instead of Tyrrell Hatton, but I wanted to get another name into the mix over posting Homa three times. Hatton face-planted on the leaderboard at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship. Still, it didn't come without him generating one of the most significant discrepancies in projected performance versus actual outcome. A few cold rounds with the flat stick won't tell the entire picture of how good Hatton has been this season, and the data is still trending for him to steal an event late in the year.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

• Safest Play: Wyndham Clark ($8,800) - No-cut events are different from what we are looking for generally because I do believe upside matters from a production standpoint. There is no way around Clark not being good at the FedEx St. Jude Championship after losing a staggering 11.5 shots ball striking. Still, there is a substantial difference in expectation for him this week than my model projected in Memphis. The reigning U.S. Open winner placed in the top 10 at hard-scoring courses and fast + firm surfaces, and the ability to use his short-game and distance is very U.S. Open-like statistically.
• Most Upside: Jason Day ($8,600) - It has been the approach play for Jason Day of why he has gone south recently. I don't have a reason for him fiddling with his irons, but the upside is still there for him at the correct track - evidenced by his second-place finish at the Open Championship less than a month ago. I will buy the ownership dip in DFS for gamers afraid of what they saw at the FedEx St. Jude and bet on the intangibles that placed him top-10 for long Par 70s, weighted scoring and weighted scrambling for this course.
• Favorite GPP Play: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,000) Day is the best current leverage on the board, but this is just a spot of trying to mention additional players. Fitzpatrick does have a nice contrarian outlook at the price and ownership projection because of his hard-scoring nature.
• Fade: Corey Conners ($8,900) - Conners' sixth-place finish in Memphis was a fugazi result. At no point did he find himself in realistic contention, and the 4.5-shot production with the around-the-green portion of his game and putter doesn't feel like a sustainable answer. I did understand the intrigue around him last week because of the club-down nature, but the 27-position decrease in expected strokes gained total could be challenging for him to overcome at a hefty price tag.
• Most Likely Winner: Jason Day ($8,600)

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

• Safest Play: Emiliano Grillo ($7,400) - It is a bet on Grillo's current form over anything else. I find the entire range to be volatile.
• Most Upside: Justin Rose ($7,900) - If Rose can build off of what he did over the weekend in Memphis, there is potential for a top-10 finish. Top-15 grades in weighted scoring and proximity could help that run.
• Favorite GPP Play: None - I am much lower on this entire range than consensus.
• Fade: I will sprinkle this section, but I'd prefer not getting overly stuck in the $7,000s
• Most Likely Winner: Justin Rose ($7,900)

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

• Safest Play: Eric Cole ($6,300) - There is a reason Eric Cole is the second-highest projected player on the slate at 12.1% on Monday. His weighted scoring possesses tangible win equity, and the weighted scoring generates a very similar answer. 
• Most Upside: Chris Kirk ($6,000) - Like Justin Rose last week, Chris Kirk stormed the leaderboard late to secure a better finish than projected heading into round four. We will see what that does to his popularity over the next few days, but there are very few lower-tiered options with as much top-20 potential as my model is delivering around the 38-year-old. 
• Favorite GPP Play: Chris Kirk ($6,000)
• Fade: Ownership dependent.
• Most Likely Winner: Eric Cole ($6,300)

 

 

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