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Joe Nicely's DraftKings and FanDuel NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for the NFL playoffs Divisional Round (January 2025) Main Slate. His top daily fantasy football lineups to target for DraftKings and FanDuel DFS contests.
Hello, RotoBallers, and thanks for joining us for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs! As the DFS slates continue to shrink, we must adjust our strategy to make winning DFS decisions. In this week's article, we'll touch on one "Core Play" and one "Pivot Play" at each position with all four games taken into consideration.
These DraftKings and FanDuel lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected DFS points and ownership, overall upside/talent levels, and opportunity, as well as factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available for this Divisional slate, and this article includes a couple of my favorite options for each position.
Also, be sure to check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win MORE this season! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups -- let's dominate the Divisional slate together!
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Quarterbacks - Divisional DFS Picks
Core Play: Jayden Daniels - WAS at DET (DK $7,000; FD $7,500)
You can throw a rock in any direction and hit a superstar QB on this slate, so it doesn't feel as though there are many bad plays on paper. Despite the presence of all these terrific options, Jayden Daniels remains my favorite play. The Commanders' rookie saves salary in comparison to Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen and also draws the slate's most attractive game environment.
The projected point total in this Detroit vs. Washington matchup is a massive 55.5. Matching up against one of the league's most prominent pass-funnel defenses in the Lions, the Commanders' offense will continue to run through the dynamic Daniels, who can rack up DFS points both on the ground and through the air.
Pivot Play: Patrick Mahomes - HOU at KC (DK $6,000; FD $7,700)
It feels weird writing up Patrick Mahomes as a pivot play, but as mentioned in the Jayden Daniels write-up, this slate is uber-deep at the QB position. Though the Chiefs offense has been largely maligned this season -- mostly due to a plethora of injuries -- the version that we'll see in the Divisional Round will be the healthiest offensive lineup we've seen from K.C. this season.
Sporting a full complement of weapons that will include Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and the playoff version of Travis Kelce, Mahomes has a strong chance to exceed his typical regular-season output in this spot. He threw for 240 yards and a score while rushing for 33 yards and another TD against Houston in Week 16. The Texans coughed up the league's third-most passing TDs (31) during the regular season.
Running Backs - Divisional DFS Picks
Core Play: Saquon Barkley - LAR at PHI (DK $8,200; FD $9,300)
The expected return of Detroit's David Montgomery to the lineup worries me enough to bump Saquon Barkley slightly ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs this weekend. It's not as if we need much of an excuse to roster Barkley, who smashed his way to 2,005 rushing yards this season and almost certainly could have broken the NFL's all-time rushing record for a season if he'd suited up in Week 18.
In this home Divisional matchup against the Rams, he squares off against an L.A. defense that he destroyed for 255 rushing yards and two scores back in Week 12. Philly has been very content to feed Barkley massive volume down the stretch -- he's logged 20+ touches in eight straight if we toss out Week 18 -- and he'll again receive a ridiculous workload in this weekend's environment against a Rams unit that can get pressure on the QB but allowed a chunky 4.52 yards per carry to opposing RBs during the regular season.
Pivot Play: Austin Ekeler - WAS at DET (DK: $5,100; FD $5,500)
We have to shout out David Montgomery at the minimum $4K price point on FanDuel, but if I'm going seriously off the board at the RB position, I'm intrigued by Washington's Austin Ekeler in this spot. The trifecta of the matchup against Detroit, Ekeler's improved health, and Brian Robinson Jr.'s total ineffectiveness could lead to a serious volume spike for the veteran this weekend.
With Washington expected to be trailing in this potential shootout, Ekeler's receiving chops should be on full display in this one. For all its effectiveness at stuffing the run, Detroit allowed an eye-opening 592 receiving yards to enemy running backs during the regular season. There's undoubtedly a low floor that comes with Ekeler, but he also comes with an intriguing ceiling, while allowing us to get different with our roster builds.
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Wide Receivers - Divisional DFS Picks
Marquise "Hollywood" Brown - HOU at KC (DK $4,200; FD $6,000)
On DraftKings specifically, Brown might just be the best price-adjusted play on the entire Divisional slate. Clocking in at just $4.2K on DK, he figures to play a prominent role for this suddenly healthy Chiefs passing attack.
After missing almost the entire season with a shoulder injury, Brown mixed back into the K.C. lineup late in the year. His targets per route run were incredible in light playing time in Weeks 16 and 17 -- to the point that I think he'll get peppered with targets this weekend.
While Derek Stingley Jr. is a player to fear in Houston's secondary, the Texans defense did cough up the NFL's second-most receiving TDs (21) to the WR position during the regular season.
Jameson Williams - WAS at DET (DK $6,100; FD $6,700)
When considering their running back duo, Williams reasonably slots in as perhaps the fourth or fifth option on this explosive Detroit offense, making him a boom-or-bust DFS option almost by default. Despite the low floor he brings to the table, I'm willing to bet on the upside of the dynamic Lions receiver in the environment that this four-game slate presents.
Williams did see an uptick in volume down the stretch, earning seven or more targets in six of Detroit's last seven regular-season games and popping for 24+ DK points in two of those contests. A game-breaker with tournament-winning potential, he finished 2024 ranked fourth in the NFL at 11.0 yards per target.
Tight Ends - Divisional DFS Picks
Core Plays: Mark Andrews (DK $4,500; FD $5,900) and Isaiah Likely (DK $3,500; $5,100) - BAL at BUF
Working on the assumption that Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers will miss this AFC clash, we're left with the unique scenario of Baltimore's two skilled tight ends serving as the de facto top receivers.
Rashod Bateman will undoubtedly get some run, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Andrews and/or Likely leading the team in targets against the Bills. If you are rostering Lamar Jackson, it makes lots of sense to stack one or both of these tight ends with him in DFS lineups
Pivot Play: Dalton Schultz - HOU at KC ($3,300)
It's unquestionably been a disappointing season for Dalton Schultz, but the Texans tight end is a legitimate contrarian option on this four-game slate. Houston's rookie tight end, Cade Stover, suffered a fractured collarbone in last week's win over the Chargers. Stover logged a 49% snap share in the Wild Card round, which means Schultz should rarely come off the field against Kansas City.
He'll play a significant role in this matchup, as the Texans are starved for healthy -- and competent -- pass-catchers behind Nico Collins. While the Chiefs defense has been rock-solid overall, the TE position has been a soft spot for this unit. Kansas City ranked dead last in the NFL in receiving yards (1,191) allowed to the TE position during the regular season.
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