Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Sentry Tournament of Champions

January 6, 2021

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Sentry Tournament of Champions DFS lineup picks, under-owned value pays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! The 2021 season is finally upon us, and we have an excellent tournament to begin the festivities in Hawaii. Forty-two of the top golfers in the world are currently slotted to tee it up at the Kapalua Plantation Course, with Dustin Johnson leading the way in pricing on DraftKings at $11,000.

The overall feel of the event brings a heightened sense of skill level compared to years past, mostly because extra invitations were given to any player that qualified for the Tour Championship in 2020. The condensed nature of the schedule last season allowed golfers such as Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama and Scottie Scheffler to sneak themselves into the field without a victory, and it has added an increased quality throughout the DraftKings pricing points. As always, thanks for making this article one of your weekly stops in your research, and I look forward to continuing to add special features that you won't find anywhere else!

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Sentry Tournament of Champions

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

Sentry Tournament of Champions - PGA DFS Overview

Kapalua Plantation Course

7,500 Yards - Par 73 - Greens Bermuda

Designed by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore in 1991, the Kapalua Plantation Course received a minor restructure in 2019 that was meant to enhance the difficulty at the property. Scoring in 2019 stayed pretty on-par with what was to be expected, but we did receive a substantial drop in 2020, finishing the event nearly 10 shots easier than it did in the previous four seasons.

Before we get carried away with any outside narrative that the venue finally unlocked its potential of havoc, it is important to note that winds were extreme last year and caused slight mayhem for how it typically plays for all golfers. I would anticipate we see scoring jump back into the 20-under par range if gusts can remain calm, and the wide-open fairways that can stretch up to 50 yards wide in some circumstances can be manhandled with the elevation that comes into play.

At the end of the day, Kapalua is meant to kick the year off in style, although players will have to deal with huge, undulating Bermuda greens that have been known to create a few three-putts over the course of the event and hilly lies that can cause some slightly more difficult second shots.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 6/1 and is followed by Justin Thomas at 7/1, Jon Rahm at 8/1, Bryson DeChambeau at 9/1 and Xander Schauffele at 10/1.

Key Stats

• Driving Distance 20%
• Proximity Within 125 Yards 15%
• Putting From 5-10 Feet 15%
• Strokes Gained In Moderate to Worse Wind 15%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 15%
• OTT+APP 10%
• Three-Putt Percentage 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($11,000)

Dustin Johnson has catapulted himself back to the top of golf's pecking order, taking down the Masters to end 2020 and recording seven consecutive top-six finishes along the way. That level of production would typically be good enough to stop right there, but the big-hitting American also brings with him a stellar course record that has seen him win multiple times and finish no worse than 10th in his previous eight tries. With all of that being said, I would be lying if I expressed that I was entirely comfortable locking him into my lineup at $11,000. The 2020 season lasted deep into the year because of all the issues with COVID-19, and while the 36-year-old should theoretically bring in slightly better form to begin 2021 because of the extra golf in October and November, I don't necessarily trust how much Johnson has played in recent weeks. We know that the 24-time PGA Tour winner is a freak of nature that can get around those types of issues, but a slow day one could have him playing catch up for the rest of the tournament - something that can prove harmful for builds if we can't get him to walk out of Hawaii victorious. I believe we will eventually see Johnson make a run on the weekend to land another top-10 showing, but hitting a winner in this small field is crucial - which is something I don't think we get out of him at Kapalua this year. I wouldn't full-fade Johnson on this slate, but I will be underweight compared to most users.

Justin Thomas ($10,700)

We know what a "no-cut" tournament does to Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele's ownership totals, and I wouldn't expect anything different here. The duo will almost certainly go off on Thursday as two of the highest owned players for the week, but I want to make it clear that leveraging ownership for the TOC is a dangerous game to play. As was mentioned with Dustin Johnson, we are going to need the winner in Hawaii to find any success, and removing someone from the pool because of popularity is a recipe for disaster. Thomas has been boom-or-bust at Kapalua with two victories, a third and two showings outside of the top-20 in his last five attempts, but he still falls into the rare case of a player I would feel more comfortable using in GPPs - even if his ownership dictates against that mindset on a typical week. The American looks to be properly priced at $10,700.

Jon Rahm ($10,400)

Trust me, I realize I am not the only person in this industry declaring such a statement, but I believe 2021 is going to go down as the year of Jon Rahm. The Spaniard has quietly put together eight consecutive top-23 finishes, including a win at the BMW Championship and a second-place at the ZOZO in October. Rahm's game is turning into a work of art that can win on both long and short tests, and if forced to make a decision between who is most likely to walk out of Hawaii victorious between Johnson, Thomas or Rahm, my money would land right here.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200)

Half of what is required from Kapalua should make Bryson DeChambeau the man to beat. The other half... well, that is where things get complicated. DeChambeau's length has become a spectacle in the sport and one that does give him an edge at a venue that rewards distance, but is there a chance that the U.S. Open winner might actually be too long here for his own good? The American ranks 34th out of 42 players in proximity from within 125 yards - a length the 27-year-old will encounter frequently. If you told me on Sunday that DeChambeau went wire-to-wire and lapped the field, I wouldn't be surprised. But I also wouldn't be shocked if we see him provide another Masters-like performance. The seven-time PGA winner is only in play as a GPP option, but there is a contrarian route that makes sense with DeChambeau currently projected to be outside of the top-10 in ownership.

Xander Schauffele ($10,000)

When we add together a no-cut tournament and a venue where Xander Schauffele has finished second and first over the previous two years, ownership is going to run WILD. Admittingly, overlooking chalk Xander has burned me more times than I am willing to count, but here we are again. His history at Kapalua would suggest otherwise, but typically I'm not overly fond of Xander at a property that features large greens. Out of the 42 golfers in the field this week, the 27-year-old comes in a paltry 33rd in three-putt percentage and 40th in proximity within 125 yards. That isn't something that he won't be able to overcome, but it is hard for me to look away from those stats, especially when I already think he is receiving a slight boost in salary because of his recent form. Schauffele's price is close to being fair, but it doesn't come without some hidden risk.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Patrick Reed ($9,600)

DraftKings doesn't get the credit for this price tag because they are more or less mimicking what betting markets are releasing and turning it into a salary, but I am impressed books took the route of making Reed 16/1 this week, and in turn, $9,600 on DraftKings. In general, I am not the biggest Reed fan on the planet, but there is a reason why this venue has produced two top-twos from him over his last four attempts. The American has the short game to find success and the shot-making skills to rack up birdies in bunches.

Webb Simpson ($9,400)

I typically try to release my model to be as safe as possible, condensing the individual weights for course history, current form and statistical data to spit out a relatively safe projection for the week. It will most of the time look something along the lines of 50% stats, 30% form and 20% course history, but I have decided to bypass that mold this weekend because of the no-cut nature of the event. Feel free to make a copy of your own to adjust the weights however you see fit, but Webb Simpson was one of the biggest gainers when I got rid of current form from the equation and turned the model into 80% stats/20% course history. Simpson has been solid with four finishes inside the top-40 during the last 10 trackable weeks of play, but his failure to post a result better than 10th place has taken away some of his "upside" when building this model out in a typical fashion. The extended layoff entering week 1 of the 2021 calendar year puts everyone in an awkward position when it comes to current form, and Simpson's sixth-place standing compared to the field in stats and seventh in course history is enough to register him fifth in my model.

Tony Finau ($8,900)

I don't think we realize how good a fit Kapalua is for Tony Finau's game because of his inability to win tournaments and get himself here regularly. The Utah native exhibited some of his upside with his ninth-place showing in 2017, but the narrative hasn't been lost on DFS users, who currently have Finau as the second-highest projected player in ownership on the board. A chalky Finau has been known to end in disaster, but I never have an issue biting the bullet when he is priced under $9,000. It will be ironic if the 31-year-old ends up winning the "Tournament of Champions," but a top-five from Tony would also be sufficient.

Collin Morikawa ($8,800)

I talked earlier about the dangers of leveraging ownership, but this is one of those situations where you can do so by adding a player to your pool, which beats fading popular selections in a no-cut situation. Collin Morikawa is someone my model has overpriced by a few hundred dollars, but his current ownership rank of 24th in the field might give us a position to grab the PGA Championship winner at a reduced rate. Morikawa is someone that I will be keeping a close eye on because my attraction to him stems solely from his popularity compared to others, but the youngster has proven he has the talent to get it done in a big event.

Daniel Berger ($8,600)

Daniel Berger is one of my favorite cash-game plays of the week for a few reasons. Berger has been a top-25 machine with seven finishes inside that range over his previous nine events, and it hasn't hurt matters that he has only finished outside of 38th place once over his last 18 tournaments. You know what you are typically getting out of the 13th-ranked player in the world, and he once again looks like an option that is positive across the board.

Scottie Scheffler ($8,500)

The end of the season didn't go as planned for Scottie Scheffler, who contracted COVID-19 and failed to post a top-15 result over the last 10 tournaments of the year. In fairness, only six of those events were participated in by the 32nd-ranked player in the world, but it was still a letdown after a run that had seen him post six consecutive top-25 finishes - which included three top-fours in a four-tournament span. Some of that perceived poor run has left a lasting effect in DFS users' minds, placing Scheffler outside the top-20 in ownership as we approach Thursday. The American seems to check every box across the board when it comes to value, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him get back to his top-10 ways at Kapalua.

Adam Scott ($8,100)

It is difficult to know where Adam Scott's game is at with the limited schedule he put forth in 2020, but I don't have an issue with calling the Aussie "my favorite play of the week." Scott ranks first in proximity within 125 yards compared to the field, as well as inside the top-six in strokes gained total in moderate to severe wind, three-putt percentage, putting from 5-10 feet and driving distance. The 14-time PGA Tour winner is exceptionally mispriced in the betting market for what he brings to the table in skill, and that also carries over to his DraftKings price tag.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Sergio Garcia ($7,700)

After coming down with COVID, Sergio Garcia was forced to withdraw from the Masters in November. I believe him missing the cut in the event before contracting the virus hasn't helped attract DFS players back to his bandwagon to begin 2021, but the upside is there for Garcia to outperform his ownership projection and salary. I don't necessarily believe we see him win the tournament, but he is a top-20 threat that is going off the board as the 23rd priced golfer and 30th owned player. That is good enough for me to seize some value.

Billy Horschel ($7,600), Marc Leishman ($7,500)

There are only so many options when you get this far down the board, and I will assume almost every article will touch on the likes of Sebastian Munoz ($7,500), Jason Kokrak ($7,300) and Ryan Palmer ($7,000). I understand why and do have the three as upgrades over anyone else in this range myself, but I don't believe it is a feasible option to spread 100% of your ownership across the trio if making numerous builds. At some point, you need to bring in a golfer outside of the group to try and pinpoint some contrarian value, and there are two selections that make sense as fliers. In the last five years, only Marc Leishman and Billy Horschel have played this event twice from golfers $7,600 and below and each has produced a top-12 result during that timeframe. Leishman has had some time to try and fix a game that has appeared broken as of late, but a fourth and seventh here since 2018 provides some level of hope that the Aussie can turn it around after a 13th place showing at the Masters, and Horschel, on the other hand, faltered to a 25th-place in 2019 but did post an 11th in 2018. Both are pivots for a reason, but I don't think many realize the difference in quality between them and the aforementioned trio is less than it may appear.

Kevin Na ($6,700)

Maybe Nick Taylor, Martin Laird or Stewart Cink, but I have a difficult time getting myself to go below Kevin Na. The bottom of the board drops off in a dramatic fashion, and it takes away some of the stars and scrubs mentality that we have become accustomed to implementing in past no-cut tournaments. Na's length leaves something to be desired, but his short game is good enough for him to make a run if his putter carries him to greater heights. The 37-year-old ranks inside the top-10 compared to the field in wind play, putting from 5-10 feet and shot iron proximity within 100 yards - all of which makes Na an intriguing flier that can help round out builds with upside in this depleted section.

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