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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 5

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We now have a decent enough sample size in the early MLB season to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player. Here are contact rate risers and fallers for Week 5 of the fantasy baseball season.

Top contact rate risers and fallers for each week can be found using RotoBaller's exclusive tool, which is part of our Premium MLB package.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) - 91% Contact Rate - last seven days

It's happening. It's finally happening. Buxton is not just making more contact, he's at a 91% clip over the last week and is hitting .364. Of course, that brought his season average UP to .147 with no homers and one RBI after a month of action. May could be a whole different story. He drew five walks and struck out just once last week and then Buxton smacked his first homer on Tuesday. This is a classic case where tracking contact rate and plate discipline could lead to a great buy-low opportunity. If he's out there on your waiver wire, grab him immediately. If you have a disgruntled Buxton owner who is still a non-believer, do what it takes to acquire him now.

Justin Bour (1B, MIA) - 83% Contact Rate - last seven days

Justin Bour's breakout didn't come with any subtlety. He racked up four hits, including a homer, double, two singles and six RBI altogether on Sunday. Bour's .226 season average is still low, but he's been never been a high contact hitter (75.4% career contact rate). Bour is the classic slugger at first base, who will struggle against lefties but bash righties. He finished April with 15 RBI, so the run production has still been there. He's another good waiver add or buy-low candidate in deep leagues.

Jose Bautista (OF, TOR) - 81% Contact Rate - last seven days

The Blue Jays offense has been a huge mess and Bautista has been asked to shoulder the load without the help of Josh Donaldson or Edwin Encarnacion. Bautista's pathetic .191 batting average has climbed thanks to a .375 BA in the last seven days. His .096 ISO is still unacceptable, but there are some signs that the power could come back. Bautista is currently at a career low 0.53 GB/FB and his 6.3% HR/FB rate is 10 points below his career mark. He's getting the ball in the air with less results, mainly because his pull rate has lowered. Chances are that things will equal out as long as he keeps making solid contact as he's started to do recently.

Ben Zobrist (2B, CHC) - 98% Contact Rate - last seven days

One of the most confusing players to own this season has been Ben Zobrist. He scored 94 runs last year for the world champs and finished with the second-best OBP of his career. So far, he's suffered a .237 BABIP despite holding an above average 86% contact rate. In the last week, he's making contact 98% of the time, but it's resulted in a .227 BA in that time. One would think his fortunes would turn around eventually, but at age 36 he still carries a bit of risk.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Brandon Belt (1B, SF) - 60% Contact Rate - last seven days

After a big first week, Belt truthers were calling for a 30-HR season. He's only homered once since April 8, but most of us know that's not his game. Belt traditionally offers a strong OBP with 15-20 HR ability and 80 RBI potential. However, Belt has just one multi-hit game in the last 10 days and even wore the Golden Sombrero on Sunday versus the Padres. If he isn't making contact at a high rate, there isn't enough value in other areas to compensate for it. Belt is a fringe 1B option in mixed leagues.

Mookie Betts (OF, BOS) - 74% Contact Rate - last seven days

This bit of information won't affect anybody in rotisserie leagues because you're not sitting Betts even if his contact rate was zero over the past week. Betts is simply slumping, with a .190 average in the past week, one run scored and no other counting stats to speak of. If anything, it might be a good time to fade him in DFS play. A contentious series against Baltimore could wake him up, but wait until he snaps out of it before spending a large chunk of your budget on an outfielder.

Ryon Healy (3B, OAK) - 64% Contact Rate - last seven days

Healy was already off to a slow start, but it's only getting worse. Healy is slashing .190/.190/.238 in the past week with five K and no walks. Healy is striking out 26.5% of the time while maintaining last year's poor 4% walk rate. His .308 BABIP shows that his quality of contact isn't the problem, it's the amount that he is (or isn't) making. Healy has never really gotten going this season, leaving many to wonder if he's a sleeper that won't wake up.

Carlos Beltran (OF, HOU) - 61% Contact Rate - last seven days

One of the biggest contact fallers of the week, Beltran's 74.1% contact rate would be the lowest of his career. Is this the year the 40-year old falls completely off the fantasy radar? His .250 average is acceptable if he were providing power in exchange, but he's only homered twice and driven in eight runs. Three walks in 101 plate appearances and a career-high 25% K% are also ominous signs. It could just be a slow start, but tread carefully with this veteran - the Astros have plenty of young talent in the minors ready to take his place if he keeps sliding downward.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
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