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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 5

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We now have a decent enough sample size in the early MLB season to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player. Here are contact rate risers and fallers for Week 5 of the fantasy baseball season.

Top contact rate risers and fallers for each week can be found using RotoBaller's exclusive tool, which is part of our Premium MLB package.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) - 91% Contact Rate - last seven days

It's happening. It's finally happening. Buxton is not just making more contact, he's at a 91% clip over the last week and is hitting .364. Of course, that brought his season average UP to .147 with no homers and one RBI after a month of action. May could be a whole different story. He drew five walks and struck out just once last week and then Buxton smacked his first homer on Tuesday. This is a classic case where tracking contact rate and plate discipline could lead to a great buy-low opportunity. If he's out there on your waiver wire, grab him immediately. If you have a disgruntled Buxton owner who is still a non-believer, do what it takes to acquire him now.

Justin Bour (1B, MIA) - 83% Contact Rate - last seven days

Justin Bour's breakout didn't come with any subtlety. He racked up four hits, including a homer, double, two singles and six RBI altogether on Sunday. Bour's .226 season average is still low, but he's been never been a high contact hitter (75.4% career contact rate). Bour is the classic slugger at first base, who will struggle against lefties but bash righties. He finished April with 15 RBI, so the run production has still been there. He's another good waiver add or buy-low candidate in deep leagues.

Jose Bautista (OF, TOR) - 81% Contact Rate - last seven days

The Blue Jays offense has been a huge mess and Bautista has been asked to shoulder the load without the help of Josh Donaldson or Edwin Encarnacion. Bautista's pathetic .191 batting average has climbed thanks to a .375 BA in the last seven days. His .096 ISO is still unacceptable, but there are some signs that the power could come back. Bautista is currently at a career low 0.53 GB/FB and his 6.3% HR/FB rate is 10 points below his career mark. He's getting the ball in the air with less results, mainly because his pull rate has lowered. Chances are that things will equal out as long as he keeps making solid contact as he's started to do recently.

Ben Zobrist (2B, CHC) - 98% Contact Rate - last seven days

One of the most confusing players to own this season has been Ben Zobrist. He scored 94 runs last year for the world champs and finished with the second-best OBP of his career. So far, he's suffered a .237 BABIP despite holding an above average 86% contact rate. In the last week, he's making contact 98% of the time, but it's resulted in a .227 BA in that time. One would think his fortunes would turn around eventually, but at age 36 he still carries a bit of risk.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Brandon Belt (1B, SF) - 60% Contact Rate - last seven days

After a big first week, Belt truthers were calling for a 30-HR season. He's only homered once since April 8, but most of us know that's not his game. Belt traditionally offers a strong OBP with 15-20 HR ability and 80 RBI potential. However, Belt has just one multi-hit game in the last 10 days and even wore the Golden Sombrero on Sunday versus the Padres. If he isn't making contact at a high rate, there isn't enough value in other areas to compensate for it. Belt is a fringe 1B option in mixed leagues.

Mookie Betts (OF, BOS) - 74% Contact Rate - last seven days

This bit of information won't affect anybody in rotisserie leagues because you're not sitting Betts even if his contact rate was zero over the past week. Betts is simply slumping, with a .190 average in the past week, one run scored and no other counting stats to speak of. If anything, it might be a good time to fade him in DFS play. A contentious series against Baltimore could wake him up, but wait until he snaps out of it before spending a large chunk of your budget on an outfielder.

Ryon Healy (3B, OAK) - 64% Contact Rate - last seven days

Healy was already off to a slow start, but it's only getting worse. Healy is slashing .190/.190/.238 in the past week with five K and no walks. Healy is striking out 26.5% of the time while maintaining last year's poor 4% walk rate. His .308 BABIP shows that his quality of contact isn't the problem, it's the amount that he is (or isn't) making. Healy has never really gotten going this season, leaving many to wonder if he's a sleeper that won't wake up.

Carlos Beltran (OF, HOU) - 61% Contact Rate - last seven days

One of the biggest contact fallers of the week, Beltran's 74.1% contact rate would be the lowest of his career. Is this the year the 40-year old falls completely off the fantasy radar? His .250 average is acceptable if he were providing power in exchange, but he's only homered twice and driven in eight runs. Three walks in 101 plate appearances and a career-high 25% K% are also ominous signs. It could just be a slow start, but tread carefully with this veteran - the Astros have plenty of young talent in the minors ready to take his place if he keeps sliding downward.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Alex Bregman

Cubs Sign Alex Bregman to Five-Year, $175 Millon Contract
Chet Holmgren

Available Sunday
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Suspended for Three Games for Attempting to Strike Another Player
Kristaps Porzingis

May Return Sunday
Zaccharie Risacher

to Miss Second Consecutive Game Sunday
Kevin Porter Jr.

Considered Probable for Sunday
Aaron Gordon

Likely to Play Sunday
Christian Braun

Considered Probable for Sunday
Spencer Jones

May Miss Another Game Sunday
Jamal Murray

Iffy for Sunday's Action
Josh Hart

Tagged as Questionable for Sunday
Ja Morant

Out Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Resting on Sunday
RJ Barrett

Unavailable Sunday
Brandon Ingram

Could Remain Out Sunday
Scottie Barnes

Uncertain for Sunday
Joel Embiid

Questionable to Play Sunday
Tidjane Salaün

Tidjane Salaun Available Versus Jazz
Grant Williams

Ready for Season Debut
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

off the Injury Report for Sunday
Kevin Huerter

Active on Saturday Night
Jalen Smith

Back for Bulls Saturday
Chandler Stephenson

Jaden Schwartz Replaces Chandler Stephenson in Kraken Lineup
Brandon Saad

Won't Play This Weekend
Shea Theodore

Returns to Golden Knights Lineup Saturday
Jaccob Slavin

Returns Against Kraken
Travis Konecny

Ruled Out Saturday
Brad Marchand

Misses Saturday's Game
Corey Perry

Available Saturday
William Nylander

Returns From Six-Game Absence
Mark Scheifele

Scores Twice as Jets End Skid
John Carlson

Records Two Assists Friday
Karel Vejmelka

Picks Up Win No. 20
Clayton Keller

Dishes Out Three Assists Friday
Jamie Benn

to Remain Out Saturday
Ilya Mikheyev

Expected to Play Saturday
Alexander Kerfoot

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Friday
John Klingberg

Could Return Sunday
Noah Laba

Could Return Saturday
Travis Konecny

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Kevin Stenlund

Available Friday
Anze Kopitar

Misses Second Consecutive Game
Aliaksei Protas

Back in Action Friday
Max Kepler

Receives 80-Game PED Suspension
CFB

Cam Coleman Visiting Alabama on Friday
Omarion Hampton

Expects to Play Sunday Night
CFB

Eric Singleton Jr. Enters Transfer Portal, Trending to Land at Florida
CFB

NCAA Denies Trinidad Chambliss a Sixth Year of Eligibility
Omarion Hampton

Questionable for Wild-Card Weekend
Kyle Tucker

Mets Remain in Mix for Kyle Tucker
Ketel Marte

Will Remain With Diamondbacks
Rashee Rice

to be Reviewed Under League's Conduct Policy
Daniel Jones

Colts Plan to Re-Sign Daniel Jones
Davante Adams

Off the Injury Report, Will Play Against Carolina
Bo Bichette

Phillies to Meet With Bo Bichette
Rome Odunze

Will Return for Wild-Card Game on Saturday
CFB

DJ Lagway Commits to Baylor
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Fire Head Coach Mike McDaniel
Sam LaPorta

Plans to be Back for Training Camp
Owen Caissie

Shipped to Miami as Centerpiece of Trade
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Officially Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
Rome Odunze

Plans to Play on Saturday
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Finalizing Deal to Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
New York Giants

Giants "All-In" on Hiring John Harbaugh
CFB

Jackson Arnold Signs with UNLV
CFB

Sam Leavitt Scheduled to Visit Tennessee
New York Giants

John Harbaugh Expected to be Favorite to Become New Giants Head Coach
Baltimore Ravens

John Harbaugh Won't Return as Ravens Head Coach
Bo Bichette

Unlikely to Return to Toronto?
Jordan Love

Ready to Start in Wild-Card Game Against Bears
CFB

Jadan Baugh Staying with Florida for Junior Season
Washington Commanders

Commanders "Mutually" Parting Ways With OC Kliff Kingsbury
CFB

Byrum Brown Officially Commits to Auburn
CFB

Austin Simmons Signing with Missouri
CFB

Ty Simpson Undecided on 2026 Plans
CFB

Quarterback AJ Hill Following Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Have Requested an Interview With Klint Kubiak
Deshaun Watson

Browns Expect Deshaun Watson to be on the Team Next Year
Wan'Dale Robinson

Dealing With Fractured Ribs
Cam Skattebo

Hopes to be Back by Training Camp
Cameron Ward

Won't Need Surgery on his Shoulder
Davante Adams

Rams Expect Davante Adams to Return in Wild-Card Round
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Fire Head Coach Jonathan Gannon
CFB

Trinidad Chambliss Will Return to Ole Miss If Granted Sixth Year of Eligibility

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