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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 14

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Myers started off blazing hot, but the last several weeks left him high and dry when All-Star selections were made. Being overlooked in favor of Brad Hand to represent your team should be motivation enough for Myers and it might just be working. The average hasn't jumped up just yet, but Myers is having fewer hitless games and taking more walks. Unlike last year, the Padres won't be selling off their entire starting lineup around him at the deadline, so a second half collapse is unlikely. Keep the faith in this young stud.

Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) 83contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Another injury further secures Taylor's starting job in Washington. We already know about Taylor's power/speed combination (12 HR/9 SB this year), but he's finally not hurting his owners in the averages. Taylor is batting .281, although that's mainly due to an elevated .375 BABIP. The good news is that since Trea Turner went out, Taylor has been moved up to second in the lineup, which should increase his run-scoring even further. This seems like a good time to add him if he's available.

Russell Martin (C/3B, TOR) 92contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Martin's average hasn't moved from its current .218 mark despite increased contact over the past week. To be honest, you shouldn't have expected anything higher than .255 from him anyway. As a backstop, power is the key to his fantasy value, although he hasn't produced much in that category either. If you want to point to an increased 17.2% BB% and a low .235 BABIP to say that he could still improve, that's fine. It still won't be enough to make him mixed-league worthy as a 34-year-old catcher on a mediocre team.

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 91% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Bell still seems hell-bent on pulling the ball to sacrifice contact for power. Maybe that's because all offseason people kept asking whether he had enough power to be an everyday first baseman. He's certainly delivering in that regard, jacking 15 homers and driving in 38 already, but he's hitting a paltry .227. His plate discipline is actually very good (0.56 BB/K), but he's hitting the ball on the ground 52% of the time. Chances are he will adjust his approach enough that the power will decrease while average will increase accordingly. He's too good a hitter not to figure things out, but it may extend beyond his rookie season before that happens.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (1B, TEX) 33% contact rate last seven days (-26%)

To say that Gallo swings and misses quite a bit is an understatement, but we need to look hard and long at what's been happening lately. He's got one hit in the past week and 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. His average has gone from bad to worse as the season progresses, starting at .213 in April, down to .202 in May and then .162 in June. 21 home runs in half a season is nothing to sneeze at, but there comes a point where the damage he's doing to your average outweighs the power. That's especially true with the rate that balls are leaving the yard, making HR more easily replaceable on the waiver wire. The Rangers' poor record could work in Gallo's favor if they keep falling out of contention, but he could still see his playing time reduced if he doesn't turn things around.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 53% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

That 53% contact rate has been parlayed into a .368 average over the past week, so this shouldn't be read into. Unlike Gallo, Duda is a case of a slugger that is making the most out of his limited contact. Most encouraging is that he's making a ton of hard contact (45.6%), which also indicates that he is healthy. Duda is on pace to match his career high of 30 HR, although 92 RBI seems highly unlikely given the Mets' offensive woes. He is right around his career average of .246 (currently batting .249), but at least that's something you can live with when looking for power.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) 55% contact rate last seven days (-15%)

Cruz is having another solid season, even if it isn't one of his best. He's far off the 40-HR mark that he's reached the last three seasons, but a slash line of .286/.369/.500 is still top notch. Cruz is currently boasting the second-highest BB/K rate of his career (0.57) and striking out less than he has since 2010, so don't read into this recent mini-slump at all.

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) 54% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Reynolds may not eke out an All-Star bid, although he surely has a strong case for deserving it. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, Reynolds is still matching last year's career-best .282 batting average, but has managed to resurrect his power along with it. Will it keep up in the second half? I won't pretend to know the answer to that question, but I can say that his average fell 52 points from May to June and he was hitless in his first 12 AB of July until a pair of singles on Tuesday. He appears to be a sell-high candidate based on track record, but I'm not expecting a huge decline considering how well he's taken to Colorado and the surrounding cast he has.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shohei Ohtani

Wins his Fourth MVP Award
KJ Simpson

Probable to Play Friday
Tory Horton

Downgraded to Non-Participant on Thursday
Aaron Judge

Wins AL MVP Award Again
Ausar Thompson

Unavailable Friday
Isaiah Stewart

in Danger of Missing Fourth Straight Game
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Won't Play Friday
P.J. Washington

Questionable Friday Against Clippers
Calvin Ridley

Limited in Practice on Thursday
Zion Williamson

to Remain Sidelined Friday
Malik Monk

Could Miss Another Game Friday
Dereck Lively II

Questionable Friday Versus Clippers
Brian Thomas Jr.

Limited Again on Thursday
Zach LaVine

Available for NBA Cup Action Friday
Jonathan Kuminga

Listed as Questionable for Friday
Domantas Sabonis

Considered Questionable for Friday
LaMelo Ball

Tagged as Probable for Friday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Expected to Return Friday
Jalen Duren

Listed Questionable For Friday Night, May Miss Second Straight Game
Bam Adebayo

to Remain Out Friday
Cade Cunningham

Listed As Questionable For Friday Night Against Philadelphia
Justin Fields

Playing for his Job on Thursday Night?
Anthony Davis

Listed as Questionable for Friday
LeBron James

Practices Thursday Without Lingering Pain
Joel Embiid

Won't Play on Friday
VJ Edgecombe

Questionable For Friday Night With Back Spasms
Day'Ron Sharpe

Listed as Probable for Friday Against Magic
Dylan Samberg

Makes Season Debut Thursday
Justin Fields

Expected to Start on Thursday Night Against Patriots
Samuel Girard

Available Thursday
Valeri Nichushkin

Considered Week-to-Week
Boone Jenner

Out Long-Term With Upper-Body Injury
Ricky Pearsall

Will Play in Week 11
Mikael Granlund

Returns to Action Thursday
Geno Smith

Not on the Week 11 Injury Report
Anthony Stolarz

Out Day-to-Day
Auston Matthews

Likely to Miss One Week
Brock Purdy

to Start in Week 11 Against Cardinals
Raisel Iglesias

Dodgers Interested in Signing Raisel Iglesias
Pete Alonso

Orioles Could be in the Mix to Sign Pete Alonso
J.K. Dobbins

Misses Second Straight Practice on Thursday
Xavier Worthy

Added to Thursday's Injury Report With Ankle Injury
Garrett Wilson

Jets Place Garrett Wilson on Injured Reserve Due to Knee Injury
C.J. Stroud

Officially Ruled Out for Sunday
Isiah Pacheco

Absent From Practice, Questionable for Sunday
Dalton Kincaid

Yet to Practice Ahead of Week 11 Matchup
Sam LaPorta

Misses Thursday Practice, Questionable for Week 11?
Lamar Jackson

Returns to Practice Thursday
Khalil Shakir

Dealing With Multiple Injuries
C.J. Stroud

Missing From Practice Again on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

in Danger of Missing the Entire Season?
Chris Godwin

Gets in Another Practice Session
Garrett Wilson

Injured Reserve a Possibility for Garrett Wilson
Matt Savoie

Collects Two Assists Wednesday
Artemi Panarin

Delivers Four Assists in Wednesday's Victory
Simon Nemec

Becomes Hat-Trick Hero Wednesday
Zack MacEwen

Exits Early Wednesday
Cody Glass

Exits With Injury Wednesday
Brandon Hagel

Injured in Wednesday's Loss
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year
Zach Hyman

Nearing Season Debut
Colten Ellis

to Make Second Career Start Wednesday
Adam Erne

to Miss "a Few Weeks"
Tyson Foerster

on Track to Return Wednesday
Andre Burakovsky

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Frank Nazar

Out on Wednesday
CFB

Still No Update on Jermod McCoy's Return Timeline
Sami Valimaki

Riding Momentum Into Bermuda
Matthieu Pavon

Struggling Through a Rough Season
Taylor Montgomery

Hopes to Get Back on Track at Port Royal
Ben Martin

a Risky Play at Bermuda Championship
Mark Hubbard

Primed for a Bounce-Back Week in Bermuda
Boone Jenner

Exits Win With Upper-Body Injury
Lee Hodges

Searching for a Spark in Bermuda
Frederik Andersen

Pulled by Concussion Spotter
Stephen Vogt

Wins Back-to-Back AL Manager of the Year Honors
Milwaukee Brewers

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager of the Year Again
Patrick Fishburn

Looking to Bounce Back in Bermuda
Eric Cole

Carrying Momentum into Bermuda
Tommy Edman

to Have Ankle Surgery Next Week
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Unlikely to Trade Ketel Marte
Roman Anthony

to Have a Normal Offseason
Jarren Duran

Red Sox Think Jarren Duran Needs a Fresh Start
MacKenzie Gore

Nationals Expected to Trade MacKenzie Gore?
Sahith Theegala

Finishes Tied for 27th at Bank of Utah Championship
Sam Stevens

Finishes Tied for 36th at Baycurrent Classic
Patrick Rodgers

Finishes Tied For Sixth at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke List

Finishes 75th at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied for 63rd at World Wide Technology Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied for 14th at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke Clanton

Finishes Tied for 46th at World Wide Technology Championship
Blades Brown

Finishes Tied for 18th at Korn Ferry Tour Championship
Tarik Skubal

Tigers Unlikely to Trade Tarik Skubal
Framber Valdez

Cubs Could Land Framber Valdez in Free Agency
Sandy Alcantara

Marlins Ready to Trade Sandy Alcantara
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Motivated to Move Ketel Marte
CFB

Nic Anderson Could Return for LSU this Season
Randy Brown

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Gabriel Bonfim

Extends His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Schnell

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Muslim Salikhov

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Uros Medic

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ismael Bonfim

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Chris Padilla

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
Marco Tulio

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christian Leroy Duncan

Scores Second-Round Knockout Victory

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