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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 14

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Myers started off blazing hot, but the last several weeks left him high and dry when All-Star selections were made. Being overlooked in favor of Brad Hand to represent your team should be motivation enough for Myers and it might just be working. The average hasn't jumped up just yet, but Myers is having fewer hitless games and taking more walks. Unlike last year, the Padres won't be selling off their entire starting lineup around him at the deadline, so a second half collapse is unlikely. Keep the faith in this young stud.

Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) 83contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Another injury further secures Taylor's starting job in Washington. We already know about Taylor's power/speed combination (12 HR/9 SB this year), but he's finally not hurting his owners in the averages. Taylor is batting .281, although that's mainly due to an elevated .375 BABIP. The good news is that since Trea Turner went out, Taylor has been moved up to second in the lineup, which should increase his run-scoring even further. This seems like a good time to add him if he's available.

Russell Martin (C/3B, TOR) 92contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Martin's average hasn't moved from its current .218 mark despite increased contact over the past week. To be honest, you shouldn't have expected anything higher than .255 from him anyway. As a backstop, power is the key to his fantasy value, although he hasn't produced much in that category either. If you want to point to an increased 17.2% BB% and a low .235 BABIP to say that he could still improve, that's fine. It still won't be enough to make him mixed-league worthy as a 34-year-old catcher on a mediocre team.

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 91% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Bell still seems hell-bent on pulling the ball to sacrifice contact for power. Maybe that's because all offseason people kept asking whether he had enough power to be an everyday first baseman. He's certainly delivering in that regard, jacking 15 homers and driving in 38 already, but he's hitting a paltry .227. His plate discipline is actually very good (0.56 BB/K), but he's hitting the ball on the ground 52% of the time. Chances are he will adjust his approach enough that the power will decrease while average will increase accordingly. He's too good a hitter not to figure things out, but it may extend beyond his rookie season before that happens.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (1B, TEX) 33% contact rate last seven days (-26%)

To say that Gallo swings and misses quite a bit is an understatement, but we need to look hard and long at what's been happening lately. He's got one hit in the past week and 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. His average has gone from bad to worse as the season progresses, starting at .213 in April, down to .202 in May and then .162 in June. 21 home runs in half a season is nothing to sneeze at, but there comes a point where the damage he's doing to your average outweighs the power. That's especially true with the rate that balls are leaving the yard, making HR more easily replaceable on the waiver wire. The Rangers' poor record could work in Gallo's favor if they keep falling out of contention, but he could still see his playing time reduced if he doesn't turn things around.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 53% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

That 53% contact rate has been parlayed into a .368 average over the past week, so this shouldn't be read into. Unlike Gallo, Duda is a case of a slugger that is making the most out of his limited contact. Most encouraging is that he's making a ton of hard contact (45.6%), which also indicates that he is healthy. Duda is on pace to match his career high of 30 HR, although 92 RBI seems highly unlikely given the Mets' offensive woes. He is right around his career average of .246 (currently batting .249), but at least that's something you can live with when looking for power.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) 55% contact rate last seven days (-15%)

Cruz is having another solid season, even if it isn't one of his best. He's far off the 40-HR mark that he's reached the last three seasons, but a slash line of .286/.369/.500 is still top notch. Cruz is currently boasting the second-highest BB/K rate of his career (0.57) and striking out less than he has since 2010, so don't read into this recent mini-slump at all.

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) 54% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Reynolds may not eke out an All-Star bid, although he surely has a strong case for deserving it. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, Reynolds is still matching last year's career-best .282 batting average, but has managed to resurrect his power along with it. Will it keep up in the second half? I won't pretend to know the answer to that question, but I can say that his average fell 52 points from May to June and he was hitless in his first 12 AB of July until a pair of singles on Tuesday. He appears to be a sell-high candidate based on track record, but I'm not expecting a huge decline considering how well he's taken to Colorado and the surrounding cast he has.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Chris Godwin

Expected to Play in Week 12
Kawhi Leonard

Sidelined for Saturday's Game Against Hornets
Joe Burrow

Won't Be Activated This Week
Tre Mann

Dealing With Ankle Soreness
Jaden Ivey

Could Make Season Debut Soon
Tobias Harris

Listed as Questionable for Saturday
Aaron Gordon

Expected to Miss Time With Hamstring Injury
Matas Buzelis

Leaves Friday's Game Early With Ankle Issue
Gabriel Vilardi

Has Two Goals in Losing Effort
Jordan Staal

Provides Two Goals in Friday's Win
Matt Boldy

Amasses Three Points in Impressive Road Win
Filip Gustavsson

Shuts Out Penguins Friday
Josh Doan

Pots Two Goals Friday Night
Alex Tuch

Tallies Four Assists in Big Win
Vinnie Hinostroza

Suffers Serious Injury Friday
Aaron Gordon

Won't Return to NBA Cup Meeting with Houston
Travis Kelce

Open to Returning in 2026?
Onyeka Okongwu

Could Miss Matchup With Pelicans
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers, Brandon Aiyuk Headed for a Divorce Soon?
D'Angelo Russell

Ruled Out Against Pelicans
Trey Hendrickson

Ruled Out for Week 12
Tre Jones

Cleared to Play Friday with Planned Minutes Limit
Jaden McDaniels

Cleared to Face Phoenix
Coby White

Ruled Out for Friday's Game Against Miami
Jarrett Allen

Ruled Out on Friday
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Doubtful as Grizzlies Face Mavericks
Adolis García

Rangers Non-Tender Adolis Garcia on Friday
Jaylon Tyson

Returning Versus Indiana
Darius Garland

Cleared to Play on Friday, Expected to See Limited Action
Marvin Bagley III

to Miss Friday's Game Against Raptors
Auston Matthews

Doubtful for Saturday
Rashod Bateman

Ruled Out for Week 12
Alexandre Sarr

Ruled Out for a Second Straight Game
Roman Josi

Could Return Saturday
Samuel Honzek

Out for Six Months After Surgery
Chris Godwin

Officially Questionable for Week 12
Sion James

Expected to Play Through Groin Issue Saturday
Jalen Chatfield

Available for Friday's Matchup
Andrew Wiggins

Labeled as "Day-to-Day"
Nico Sturm

Activated From Injured Reserve
Jason Zucker

Available Friday
Brandon Miller

Returning To Charlotte's Lineup On Saturday
Connor Hellebuyck

to Miss 4-6 Weeks
Jaylen Warren

Cleared From Injury Report Ahead of Week 12
Brian Thomas Jr.

Ruled Out for Week 12
Kenneth Walker III

Listed as Questionable for Week 12
Trey Benson

Ruled Out For Week 12
Josh Jacobs

Officially Questionable to Play in Week 12
Darius Slayton

Cleared to Return From Hamstring Injury in Week 12
Daniel Jones

"Good to Go" for Week 12
Alvin Kamara

Officially Questionable to Play in Week 12
Xavier Worthy

"Trending in the Right Direction," Officially Questionable
Isiah Pacheco

Out Against Colts
Drake London

Officially Ruled Out for Week 12
CFB

Beau Pribula Expected to Start Against Oklahoma
Aaron Rodgers

Questionable to Play Against Bears
Rhamondre Stevenson

Expected to Return in Week 12
Jayden Reed

Packers Open Jayden Reed's Practice Window on Friday
Dan Hooker

An Underdog At UFC Qatar
Arman Tsarukyan

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Ian Machado Garry

A Favorite At UFC Qatar
Belal Muhammad

Looks To Bounce Back
Alonzo Menifield

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Volkan Oezdemir

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Myktybek Orolbai

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Jack Hermansson

Makes His Welterweight Debut
Kyoji Horiguchi

Returns To The UFC
Tagir Ulanbekov

Set To Open Up UFC Qatar Main Card
Sergei Bobrovsky

Frustrates Devils With Shutout
Adam Fantilli

Leads Blue Jackets to Victory in Toronto
Ilya Sorokin

Posts Second Shutout of the Season
Alex Ovechkin

Nets 33rd Career Hat Trick
Andre Burakovsky

Ruled Out for Friday
Gavin Brindley

Hurt Versus Rangers
Jake Evans

Exits With Injury Thursday
Elly De La Cruz

Played Through Partially Torn Quad to End 2025
Tarik Skubal

Tigers "Doubtful" to Trade Tarik Skubal
Raisel Iglesias

Returning to the Braves on One-Year Deal
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Continue Fall Run at RSM Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Looking to Bounce Back at RSM Classic
Tom Hoge

Looking to Regain Form at RSM Classic
Joe Highsmith

Searching for Turnaround at RSM Classic
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Build on T11 Finish in Bermuda
Austin Eckroat

Searching for Momentum at RSM Classic
Joel Dahmen

Trying to Find Form at the RSM Classic
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful to Play Against Western Kentucky
Michael Thorbjornsen

Hopes to End 2025 Campaign With Another Solid Finish
Andrew Novak

Looks to End 2025 Season on High Note at RSM Classic
Harry Higgs

Teetering for PGA Tour Card in 2026
PGA

Nico Echavarria has the Potential to Contend at the RSM Classic
Sam Stevens

Finishing Out Year in Georgia
Seamus Power

Playing Better at the Right Time
Beau Hossler

Roller Coaster Comes to Saint Simons Island
Quade Cummins

The Time is Now for Quade Cummins in Georgia
Austin Cook

Needs a Win at the RSM Classic
Cameron Champ

on the PGA Tour Card Bubble
Grayson Rodriguez

Shipped to Angels
Taylor Ward

Orioles Acquire Taylor Ward From Angels
Shota Imanaga

Accepts Cubs Qualifying Offer
Brandon Woodruff

Returning to Milwaukee in 2026
Denny McCarthy

Looking For Another Solid Finish at RSM Classic
Si Woo Kim

Looking To Use Current Momentum to Flip Script at RSM Classic
Mackenzie Hughes

a Good Bounce-Back Candidate at RSM Classic
Harris English

Making 14th Start at This Week's RSM Classic
Konnor Griffin

Could Compete for Starting Shortstop Job in 2026
Gleyber Torres

Accepts Tigers Qualifying Offer
CFB

Sam Leavitt Set to Enter Transfer Portal?
Jose Altuve

Undergoes Foot Surgery
Alex Bregman

Red Sox Going for Either Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso?
CFB

James Franklin to be Virginia Tech's Next Head Coach
CFB

Fernando Mendoza the Clear Heisman Trophy Favorite?
CFB

Beau Pribula Has Chance to Face Oklahoma on Saturday
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated
Islam Makhachev

Claims UFC Welterweight Belt
Zhang Weili

Gets Outclassed
Valentina Shevchenko

Wins Unanimous Decision At UFC 322
Sean Brady

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Michael Morales

Remains Unbeaten
Leon Edwards

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Leon Edwards

Carlos Prates Becomes The First Man To Knock Out Leon Edwards
Beneil Dariush

Suffers Brutal First-Round Knockout Loss
Beneil Dariush

Benoit Saint Denis Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 16 Seconds
Josh Naylor

Mariners Finalizing Five-Year Contract

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