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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 14

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Myers started off blazing hot, but the last several weeks left him high and dry when All-Star selections were made. Being overlooked in favor of Brad Hand to represent your team should be motivation enough for Myers and it might just be working. The average hasn't jumped up just yet, but Myers is having fewer hitless games and taking more walks. Unlike last year, the Padres won't be selling off their entire starting lineup around him at the deadline, so a second half collapse is unlikely. Keep the faith in this young stud.

Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) 83contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Another injury further secures Taylor's starting job in Washington. We already know about Taylor's power/speed combination (12 HR/9 SB this year), but he's finally not hurting his owners in the averages. Taylor is batting .281, although that's mainly due to an elevated .375 BABIP. The good news is that since Trea Turner went out, Taylor has been moved up to second in the lineup, which should increase his run-scoring even further. This seems like a good time to add him if he's available.

Russell Martin (C/3B, TOR) 92contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Martin's average hasn't moved from its current .218 mark despite increased contact over the past week. To be honest, you shouldn't have expected anything higher than .255 from him anyway. As a backstop, power is the key to his fantasy value, although he hasn't produced much in that category either. If you want to point to an increased 17.2% BB% and a low .235 BABIP to say that he could still improve, that's fine. It still won't be enough to make him mixed-league worthy as a 34-year-old catcher on a mediocre team.

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 91% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Bell still seems hell-bent on pulling the ball to sacrifice contact for power. Maybe that's because all offseason people kept asking whether he had enough power to be an everyday first baseman. He's certainly delivering in that regard, jacking 15 homers and driving in 38 already, but he's hitting a paltry .227. His plate discipline is actually very good (0.56 BB/K), but he's hitting the ball on the ground 52% of the time. Chances are he will adjust his approach enough that the power will decrease while average will increase accordingly. He's too good a hitter not to figure things out, but it may extend beyond his rookie season before that happens.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (1B, TEX) 33% contact rate last seven days (-26%)

To say that Gallo swings and misses quite a bit is an understatement, but we need to look hard and long at what's been happening lately. He's got one hit in the past week and 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. His average has gone from bad to worse as the season progresses, starting at .213 in April, down to .202 in May and then .162 in June. 21 home runs in half a season is nothing to sneeze at, but there comes a point where the damage he's doing to your average outweighs the power. That's especially true with the rate that balls are leaving the yard, making HR more easily replaceable on the waiver wire. The Rangers' poor record could work in Gallo's favor if they keep falling out of contention, but he could still see his playing time reduced if he doesn't turn things around.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 53% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

That 53% contact rate has been parlayed into a .368 average over the past week, so this shouldn't be read into. Unlike Gallo, Duda is a case of a slugger that is making the most out of his limited contact. Most encouraging is that he's making a ton of hard contact (45.6%), which also indicates that he is healthy. Duda is on pace to match his career high of 30 HR, although 92 RBI seems highly unlikely given the Mets' offensive woes. He is right around his career average of .246 (currently batting .249), but at least that's something you can live with when looking for power.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) 55% contact rate last seven days (-15%)

Cruz is having another solid season, even if it isn't one of his best. He's far off the 40-HR mark that he's reached the last three seasons, but a slash line of .286/.369/.500 is still top notch. Cruz is currently boasting the second-highest BB/K rate of his career (0.57) and striking out less than he has since 2010, so don't read into this recent mini-slump at all.

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) 54% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Reynolds may not eke out an All-Star bid, although he surely has a strong case for deserving it. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, Reynolds is still matching last year's career-best .282 batting average, but has managed to resurrect his power along with it. Will it keep up in the second half? I won't pretend to know the answer to that question, but I can say that his average fell 52 points from May to June and he was hitless in his first 12 AB of July until a pair of singles on Tuesday. He appears to be a sell-high candidate based on track record, but I'm not expecting a huge decline considering how well he's taken to Colorado and the surrounding cast he has.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Davante Adams

Not Expected to Play in Week 18
Stephon Castle

Active on Wednesday
Tyler Kolek

Elevated to Available on Wednesday
Tari Eason

Questionable Versus Brooklyn
Tobias Harris

Not Expected to Suit Up on Thursday
Ariel Hukporti

Available For Wednesday
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Questionable Versus Brooklyn
Mason Plumlee

Undergoes Groin Surgery
Zach Collins

Out at Least 10 More Days
Jerami Grant

Unavailable Again on Wednesday
Geno Smith

Won't Play in Week 18
Aaron Rodgers

Considering Playing Beyond 2025?
Sean Monahan

Sits Out Wednesday's Game
Zach Werenski

Misses Fourth Straight Game Wednesday
Dougie Hamilton

Questionable Wednesday
Radko Gudas

Expected to Remain Out Wednesday
Stefon Diggs

Expected to Play in Week 18
Ilya Lyubushkin

Back From One-Game Absence Wednesday
Alex Lyon

to Miss "Bit of Time"
Erik Cernak

Rejoins Lightning Lineup Wednesday
Christian McCaffrey

Trending to Play in Week 18
Kon Knueppel

To Make Return For Charlotte On Wednesday, In Starting Lineup
Jalen Hurts

Eagles Expected to Rest Jalen Hurts, Most Starters in Week 18
George Kittle

49ers Will be "Very Surprised" if George Kittle Doesn't Play on Saturday
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Ruled Out for Regular-Season Finale
CFB

Lane Kiffin Interested in Sam Leavitt, Brendan Sorsby at LSU
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Questionable Wednesday
Adam Gaudette

Unavailable Wednesday
Darcy Kuemper

Activated From Injured Reserve
Alex Lyon

Nursing Lower-Body Injury
William Karlsson

to Miss Olympics
Jack Eichel

a Game-Time Decision Wednesday
Jason Dickinson

Hurt Versus Islanders
Mitchell Robinson

Sits Out Wednesday's Game
Grayson Allen

Listed as Doubtful Wednesday
Mason Plumlee

Ryan Kalkbrenner, Mason Plumlee Remain Out Wednesday
Kon Knueppel

Likely to Return Wednesday
Miles Bridges

Listed as Questionable Wednesday
Isaiah Hartenstein

Misses Second Straight Game
Devin Vassell

Ruled Out for Wednesday
Stephon Castle

Iffy for Wednesday
Josh Giddey

Sidelined "at Least a Few Weeks"
Desmond Bane

Might Miss Wednesday's Game in Indiana
Jalen Suggs

on the Injury Report Again for Wednesday Night
Connor Dewar

Available Tuesday
TOR

Chris Tanev to Miss Time With Lower-Body Injury
Dakota Joshua

Out With Kidney Problem
MON

Samuel Montembeault Returns to Canadiens Crease
Erik Karlsson

Good to Go Tuesday
William Nylander

Misses Second Consecutive Game
Auston Matthews

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
CFB

Deuce Knight Officially Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Kewan Lacy Expected to Be Full-Go Against Georgia
Stefon Diggs

Facing Strangulation, Assault Charges
CFB

Chip Kelly Named Northwestern Offensive Coordinator
Riley Leonard

Will Start Against the Texans
Bijan Robinson

Explodes for 229 Total Yards, Two Touchdowns on Monday Night
Davante Adams

Officially Out on Monday Night
Drake London

Active Against Rams
Justin Herbert

Won't Face Broncos in Week 18
Marcus Mariota

Considered "a Stretch" to Play in Week 18
Geno Smith

Dealing With Significant Ankle Injury
Dak Prescott

Will Play in Week 18
Lamar Jackson

Week 18 Status "to be Determined"
Joe Mixon

Won't Return This Season
T.J. Watt

a Long Shot to Play in Week 18?
CFB

Penn State Working to Hire D'Anton Lynn as Next Defensive Coordinator
Joe Burrow

Will Play in Week 18 Against the Browns
CFB

Omar Cooper Expected to be Full-Go for Rose Bowl
CFB

Marcus Freeman Staying with Notre Dame for 2026 Season
CFB

Star Wideout Cam Coleman Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Jay Hill Expected to be Next Michigan Defensive Coordinator
CFB

Michigan Targeting Kyle Whittingham as Next Head Coach
CFB

Texas Leading Rusher Quintrevion Wisner Set to Transfer

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