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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 14

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Myers started off blazing hot, but the last several weeks left him high and dry when All-Star selections were made. Being overlooked in favor of Brad Hand to represent your team should be motivation enough for Myers and it might just be working. The average hasn't jumped up just yet, but Myers is having fewer hitless games and taking more walks. Unlike last year, the Padres won't be selling off their entire starting lineup around him at the deadline, so a second half collapse is unlikely. Keep the faith in this young stud.

Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) 83contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Another injury further secures Taylor's starting job in Washington. We already know about Taylor's power/speed combination (12 HR/9 SB this year), but he's finally not hurting his owners in the averages. Taylor is batting .281, although that's mainly due to an elevated .375 BABIP. The good news is that since Trea Turner went out, Taylor has been moved up to second in the lineup, which should increase his run-scoring even further. This seems like a good time to add him if he's available.

Russell Martin (C/3B, TOR) 92contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Martin's average hasn't moved from its current .218 mark despite increased contact over the past week. To be honest, you shouldn't have expected anything higher than .255 from him anyway. As a backstop, power is the key to his fantasy value, although he hasn't produced much in that category either. If you want to point to an increased 17.2% BB% and a low .235 BABIP to say that he could still improve, that's fine. It still won't be enough to make him mixed-league worthy as a 34-year-old catcher on a mediocre team.

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 91% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Bell still seems hell-bent on pulling the ball to sacrifice contact for power. Maybe that's because all offseason people kept asking whether he had enough power to be an everyday first baseman. He's certainly delivering in that regard, jacking 15 homers and driving in 38 already, but he's hitting a paltry .227. His plate discipline is actually very good (0.56 BB/K), but he's hitting the ball on the ground 52% of the time. Chances are he will adjust his approach enough that the power will decrease while average will increase accordingly. He's too good a hitter not to figure things out, but it may extend beyond his rookie season before that happens.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (1B, TEX) 33% contact rate last seven days (-26%)

To say that Gallo swings and misses quite a bit is an understatement, but we need to look hard and long at what's been happening lately. He's got one hit in the past week and 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. His average has gone from bad to worse as the season progresses, starting at .213 in April, down to .202 in May and then .162 in June. 21 home runs in half a season is nothing to sneeze at, but there comes a point where the damage he's doing to your average outweighs the power. That's especially true with the rate that balls are leaving the yard, making HR more easily replaceable on the waiver wire. The Rangers' poor record could work in Gallo's favor if they keep falling out of contention, but he could still see his playing time reduced if he doesn't turn things around.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 53% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

That 53% contact rate has been parlayed into a .368 average over the past week, so this shouldn't be read into. Unlike Gallo, Duda is a case of a slugger that is making the most out of his limited contact. Most encouraging is that he's making a ton of hard contact (45.6%), which also indicates that he is healthy. Duda is on pace to match his career high of 30 HR, although 92 RBI seems highly unlikely given the Mets' offensive woes. He is right around his career average of .246 (currently batting .249), but at least that's something you can live with when looking for power.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) 55% contact rate last seven days (-15%)

Cruz is having another solid season, even if it isn't one of his best. He's far off the 40-HR mark that he's reached the last three seasons, but a slash line of .286/.369/.500 is still top notch. Cruz is currently boasting the second-highest BB/K rate of his career (0.57) and striking out less than he has since 2010, so don't read into this recent mini-slump at all.

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) 54% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Reynolds may not eke out an All-Star bid, although he surely has a strong case for deserving it. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, Reynolds is still matching last year's career-best .282 batting average, but has managed to resurrect his power along with it. Will it keep up in the second half? I won't pretend to know the answer to that question, but I can say that his average fell 52 points from May to June and he was hitless in his first 12 AB of July until a pair of singles on Tuesday. He appears to be a sell-high candidate based on track record, but I'm not expecting a huge decline considering how well he's taken to Colorado and the surrounding cast he has.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Davion Mitchell

Uncertain to Play Thursday Against Portland
Kel'el Ware

Ruled Out Thursday Against the Trail Blazers
Julius Randle

Added to Thursday's Injury Report as Questionable
Franz Wagner

Ruled Out Thursday Against Charlotte
MacKenzie Gore

Rangers Acquire MacKenzie Gore From the Nationals
LaMelo Ball

Questionable for Thursday's Matchup in Orlando
Moussa Cisse

Upgraded to Probable
Daniel Gafford

Downgraded to Doubtful Thursday Against Golden State
Khris Middleton

Upgraded to Available Thursday Against Denver
Bilal Coulibaly

Not Ready to Return Thursday
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Likely to Play Thursday Against the Timberwolves
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Ruled Out Thursday
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Collects Two Points in Win Over Flames
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Notches Three Points in Wednesday's Loss
Clayton Keller

Saves Mammoth From Loss Wednesday Night
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Overcomes Avalanche With 40 Saves
Dylan Larkin

Leads Red Wings Past Maple Leafs
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Exits With Lower-Body Injury Wednesday
Josh Doan

Lands Seven-Year Extension From Sabres
Keyonte George

Iffy for Thursday's Tilt
Lauri Markkanen

Remains Unavailable Thursday
Josh Giddey

Holds Questionable Tag Thursday
Jamal Murray

Probable for Juicy Fantasy Matchup Thursday
Paul George

Could Miss Third Straight Game Thursday
Joel Embiid

Considered Probable Thursday
Kawhi Leonard

Questionable Thursday
Kevin Porter Jr.

Out Indefinitely With Oblique Strain
Brandon Sproat

Dealt to Brewers in Four-Player Trade
Jett Williams

Brewers Acquire Jett Williams From Mets
Freddy Peralta

Mets Acquire Freddy Peralta From Brewers
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Questionable Versus the Wizards
Seth Jones

to Miss Olympics
Christian Braun

Remains Sidelined on Thursday
Martin Pospisil

Makes Season Debut Wednesday
Teddy Blueger

Available Wednesday Night
Tom Wilson

Comes Off Injured Reserve
Luke Hughes

Devils Place Luke Hughes on Long-Term Injured Reserve
Valeri Nichushkin

Returns to Action Wednesday
Kris Letang

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Kyle Tucker

Expected to Bat Second or Third in Dodgers' Lineup
Brandon Aiyuk

has "Played his Last Snap as a Niner"
Cody Bellinger

Signs Five-Year, $162.5 Million Contract With Yankees
Adam Scott

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Looking to Rebound at The American Express
Josh Allen

Might Need Foot Surgery
Russell Henley

Looks to Build on Strong Start at The American Express
Jason Day

Looking to Start 2026 Strong at The American Express
Wyndham Clark

Looking to Regain Form at The American Express
Sam Burns

Looks to Continue Success at The American Express
Akshay Bhatia

Looking to Flip the Script at The American Express
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looking to Build on Strong Fall in Season Debut
Kurt Kitayama

Hopes To Continue Strong Start to 2026 Season at American Express
CFB

Princewill Umanmielen Expected to Sign with LSU
Scottie Scheffler

Returns To American Express After Missing Last Year's Edition
Robert MacIntyre

Keeps Momentum Rolling Heading Into American Express
Brian Harman

Can Challenge at American Express if His Putter Stays Hot
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Outstanding Form Continues Heading Into American Express
Matt Fitzpatrick

Continues Playing Well Following Outstanding Finish to 2025 Season
Patrick Cantlay

Looks to Get a Jump Start on His 2026 Season
Blades Brown

Set to Make First PGA Tour Appearance of 2026
Kevin Roy

Has Some Confidence Heading to Southern California
Josh Morrissey

Has Three-Point Night Against Blues
Min Woo Lee

Poised to Make Bigger Impact in 2026
Miro Heiskanen

Records Three Helpers Tuesday
Brandon Hagel

Stays Hot Tuesday Night
Ryan O'Reilly

Extends Scoring Streak With Three-Point Effort
Max Homa

Needs a Better Start for 2026
Konsta Helenius

Bags Three Points In Tuesday's Win
Tony Finau

Trying to Reverse Disturbing Trend
Anthony Cirelli

Injured Versus Sharks
Cam Davis

Aims for More Accuracy at American Express
Darcy Kuemper

Hurt on Tuesday Night
Luisangel Acuña

Luisangel Acuna Sent to White Sox in Trade
Luis Robert Jr.

Mets Acquire Luis Robert Jr. from White Sox
Los Angeles Chargers

Mike McDaniel Expected to Become Chargers Offensive Coordinator
Carlos Beltran

Andruw Jones Elected to Baseball Hall of Fame
CFB

Alberto Mendoza Expected to Land at Georgia Tech
Malik Nabers

Giants Hope Malik Nabers Will be Back for Start of Training Camp
CFB

Duke Suing Quarterback Darian Mensah
Cam Skattebo

Should be Ready by OTAs
George Kittle

Expects to Return "Well Before November"
CFB

Alberto Mendoza Entering Transfer Portal
Mookie Betts

Plans to Retire at the End of his Current Contract
Tennessee Titans

Titans Set to Hire Robert Saleh as Next Head Coach
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Expected to Hire Jeff Hafley as Next Head Coach
Zach Charbonnet

has Torn ACL
Zach Charbonnet

Needs Knee Surgery, Out for Rest of Playoffs
Tennessee Titans

Mike McCarthy a Finalist for Titans Head-Coaching Job?
Colston Loveland

Suffers Concussion in Divisional Round Loss
Kyren Williams

Scores Two Touchdowns in Divisional Round Win
Buffalo Bills

Bills Fire Head Coach Sean McDermott
Rhamondre Stevenson

Returns in Sunday's AFC Divisional Round Game
Ha-Seong Kim

has Finger Surgery, Out 4-5 Months
Rhamondre Stevenson

Questionable to Return on Sunday With Eye Injury
Woody Marks

Returns Following Brief Exit on Sunday
Dalton Schultz

Won't Return in Sunday's AFC Divisional Round Game
Aaron Rodgers

Steelers Open to Aaron Rodgers Returning in 2026?
Jarrett Stidham

to Start AFC Championship Game
Zach Charbonnet

Questionable to Return Against 49ers

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