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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 14

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Myers started off blazing hot, but the last several weeks left him high and dry when All-Star selections were made. Being overlooked in favor of Brad Hand to represent your team should be motivation enough for Myers and it might just be working. The average hasn't jumped up just yet, but Myers is having fewer hitless games and taking more walks. Unlike last year, the Padres won't be selling off their entire starting lineup around him at the deadline, so a second half collapse is unlikely. Keep the faith in this young stud.

Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) 83contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Another injury further secures Taylor's starting job in Washington. We already know about Taylor's power/speed combination (12 HR/9 SB this year), but he's finally not hurting his owners in the averages. Taylor is batting .281, although that's mainly due to an elevated .375 BABIP. The good news is that since Trea Turner went out, Taylor has been moved up to second in the lineup, which should increase his run-scoring even further. This seems like a good time to add him if he's available.

Russell Martin (C/3B, TOR) 92contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Martin's average hasn't moved from its current .218 mark despite increased contact over the past week. To be honest, you shouldn't have expected anything higher than .255 from him anyway. As a backstop, power is the key to his fantasy value, although he hasn't produced much in that category either. If you want to point to an increased 17.2% BB% and a low .235 BABIP to say that he could still improve, that's fine. It still won't be enough to make him mixed-league worthy as a 34-year-old catcher on a mediocre team.

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 91% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Bell still seems hell-bent on pulling the ball to sacrifice contact for power. Maybe that's because all offseason people kept asking whether he had enough power to be an everyday first baseman. He's certainly delivering in that regard, jacking 15 homers and driving in 38 already, but he's hitting a paltry .227. His plate discipline is actually very good (0.56 BB/K), but he's hitting the ball on the ground 52% of the time. Chances are he will adjust his approach enough that the power will decrease while average will increase accordingly. He's too good a hitter not to figure things out, but it may extend beyond his rookie season before that happens.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (1B, TEX) 33% contact rate last seven days (-26%)

To say that Gallo swings and misses quite a bit is an understatement, but we need to look hard and long at what's been happening lately. He's got one hit in the past week and 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. His average has gone from bad to worse as the season progresses, starting at .213 in April, down to .202 in May and then .162 in June. 21 home runs in half a season is nothing to sneeze at, but there comes a point where the damage he's doing to your average outweighs the power. That's especially true with the rate that balls are leaving the yard, making HR more easily replaceable on the waiver wire. The Rangers' poor record could work in Gallo's favor if they keep falling out of contention, but he could still see his playing time reduced if he doesn't turn things around.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 53% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

That 53% contact rate has been parlayed into a .368 average over the past week, so this shouldn't be read into. Unlike Gallo, Duda is a case of a slugger that is making the most out of his limited contact. Most encouraging is that he's making a ton of hard contact (45.6%), which also indicates that he is healthy. Duda is on pace to match his career high of 30 HR, although 92 RBI seems highly unlikely given the Mets' offensive woes. He is right around his career average of .246 (currently batting .249), but at least that's something you can live with when looking for power.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) 55% contact rate last seven days (-15%)

Cruz is having another solid season, even if it isn't one of his best. He's far off the 40-HR mark that he's reached the last three seasons, but a slash line of .286/.369/.500 is still top notch. Cruz is currently boasting the second-highest BB/K rate of his career (0.57) and striking out less than he has since 2010, so don't read into this recent mini-slump at all.

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) 54% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Reynolds may not eke out an All-Star bid, although he surely has a strong case for deserving it. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, Reynolds is still matching last year's career-best .282 batting average, but has managed to resurrect his power along with it. Will it keep up in the second half? I won't pretend to know the answer to that question, but I can say that his average fell 52 points from May to June and he was hitless in his first 12 AB of July until a pair of singles on Tuesday. He appears to be a sell-high candidate based on track record, but I'm not expecting a huge decline considering how well he's taken to Colorado and the surrounding cast he has.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Grayson Allen

Good to Go Thursday
Jalen Green

Upgraded to Available
De'Aaron Fox

Not Ready to Play Friday
De'Andre Hunter

on Track to Return Friday
Lonzo Ball

to Sit Out Friday's Game
Tobias Harris

Out on Friday
Khris Middleton

Available Friday
Bilal Coulibaly

to Miss Friday's Action
Brock Purdy

Getting Closer, Still Questionable for Week 10
Cam Thomas

Won't Play on Friday
Chris Godwin

Might Not Return Until Late November, Early December
LaMelo Ball

in Danger of Missing Third Straight Game
Daniel Jones

Colts Believe in Daniel Jones as Their Franchise QB
Anthony Edwards

Iffy for Friday
Bam Adebayo

Won't Play Against Hornets
Anthony Davis

Listed as Doubtful for Friday
Puka Nacua

Practices in Full, Says he Feels Good
Draymond Green

Likely to Return Friday
A.J. Brown

Listed as Full Participant in Thursday's Practice
Jimmy Butler III

Uncertain for Friday
Saquon Barkley

Practicing in Full Coming Out of Bye Week
Stephen Curry

to Remain Out Friday
Kyle Tucker

Headlines List of 13 Players to Receive Qualifying Offers
Pete Fairbanks

Becomes a Free Agent
Filip Hallander

Out Against Capitals
Tyson Kozak

Available Versus Blues
Cody Glass

Returns to Action Thursday
Connor Brown

Out on Thursday
Mats Zuccarello

Could Be an Option Friday
Matt Duchene

Remains Out Thursday
Harold Fannin Jr.

Misses Practice With Hamstring Injury
Roope Hintz

a Game-Time Call Thursday
CFB

Luke Fickell Will Return as Wisconsin's Head Coach in 2026
NFL

Antonio Brown Extradited to the United States on Attempted Murder Charge
Aaron Jones Sr.

Returns to Practice in a Limited Capacity on Thursday
D'Andre Swift

on Track to Return After Full Practice
A.J. Brown

Back at Practice After Bye Week
Saquon Barkley

Practicing on Thursday
Rhamondre Stevenson

Misses Another Practice, Availability in Doubt
Garrett Wilson

Cleared for Week 10 Matchup
Rico Dowdle

Back at Practice on Thursday
Bo Bichette

Blue Jays Extend Qualifying Offer to Bo Bichette
Craig Stammen

Named Padres New Manager
Michael Pittman Jr.

Returns to Thursday's Practice
James Cook

Back on the Field on Thursday
Nick Chubb

Back at Practice on Thursday
Brian Thomas Jr.

Not at Practice Again on Thursday
Chris Godwin

Misses Thursday's Practice
Bucky Irving

to Miss Another Week of Practice?
K'Andre Miller

Could Return to Action Thursday
Sean Monahan

Injured in Wednesday's Loss
Tyler Bertuzzi

Pots Third-Period Hat Trick Wednesday
Macklin Celebrini

Leads Sharks Past Kraken
Jakob Chychrun

Records Three Assists Wednesday
Alex Ovechkin

Scores 900th Career Goal
Dillon Brooks

Misses Sixth Consecutive Game
Jalen Green

on Track to Make Suns Debut Thursday
Bradley Beal

Back in Action Thursday
Kawhi Leonard

Remains Out Thursday
James Harden

Won't Play on Thursday
Jorge Polanco

Declines his 2026 Option to Become a Free Agent
Adam Gaudette

Available Against Kraken
Scott Laughton

Set for Season Debut Wednesday
Justin Brazeau

Ruled Out for Four Weeks
Tristan Jarry

Expcted to Miss Three Weeks
Conor Garland

Returns Against Blackhawks
Rasmus Sandin

Back for Capitals Wednesday
Denton Mateychuk

Out on Wednesday
Chris Sale

Braves Picking Up Chris Sale's 2026 Option
Michael Thorbjornsen

Poised to Continue Hot Play in Mexico
Davis Riley

Struggling to Find Form Ahead of World Wide Technology Championship
Taylor Montgomery

Leaning on Putter at World Wide Technology Championship
Stephan Jaeger

Offers Strong Value at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Griffin

Looks to Stay Hot at El Cardonal
Nick Dunlap

Looking to Find His Game at El Cardonal
Wyndham Clark

Searching for Consistency at El Cardonal
Michael Brennan

Aims to Extend Fairytale Start at El Cardonal
Nathan MacKinnon

Extends Point Streak to Seven Games
Shane Bieber

Staying in Toronto for 2026
Salvador Perez

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Royals
Trevor Story

Opts in for Remaining Two Years on his Contract
Yu Darvish

to Miss All of 2026 Following Flexor-Tendon Surgery
Shota Imanaga

Becomes a Free Agent
Luis Robert Jr.

White Sox Pick Up 2026 Option on Luis Robert Jr.
CFB

LJ Martin Expected to Play in Top-10 Matchup Against Texas Tech
PGA

LIV Golf Expanding To 72-Hole Format In 2026
Atlanta Braves

Braves Hire Walt Weiss as Their Next Manager
Kris Bubic

Cleared to Begin a Throwing Program
Brandon Woodruff

Declines Mutual Option for 2026
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Exercise 2026 Option on Freddy Peralta
Lucas Giolito

Declines his 2026 Player Option
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Sixth at Procore Championship
PGA

Matti Schmid Finishes Tied for 46th at Baycurrent Classic
Keith Mitchell

Finishes Tied for 10th at Baycurrent Classic
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied for 21st at Genesis Championship
Mackenzie Hughes

Misses The Cut at Sanderson Farms Championship
Max Greyserman

Finishes Second at Baycurrent Classic
Austin Eckroat

Finishes Tied for 56th at Baycurrent Classic
Luke Clanton

Finishes Tied for 56th at Bank of Utah Championship
Pete Alonso

Officially Opts Out of his Contract With Mets
Alex Bregman

Opts Out of his Contract With Boston
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz on the Open Market This Winter
Cody Bellinger

Becomes Free Agent After Opting Out
Kyle Larson

Wins His Second NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix
Ryan Blaney

Concludes the 2025 Season with A Win at Phoenix
William Byron

Strong Championship Effort Ends With Late-Race Flat-Tire Crash
Denny Hamlin

Overtime Four-Tire Call Costs Denny Hamlin the Championship
Chase Briscoe

Championship Bid Never Really Started After Two Tire Failures
Brad Keselowski

Nearly Steals Phoenix Race
David Onama

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Steve Garcia

Scores First-Round TKO Win
Ante Delija

Suffers His First UFC Loss
CFB

Dylan Raiola Suffers Season-Ending Injury
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Gets Knockout Win
Themba Gorimbo

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 110
Jeremiah Wells

Gets Back In The Win Column
Yadier del Valle

Remains Undefeated
Isaac Dulgarian

Cut By UFC Following Submission Loss
Daniel Frunza

Still Winless In The UFC
Charles Radtke

Dominates Daniel Frunza
Allan Nascimento

Gets Submission Win
Cody Durden

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Austin Cindric

is A Driver to Avoid for Phoenix DFS Lineups
Alex Bowman

Could Alex Bowman be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Phoenix?
Noah Gragson

Should DFS Players Roster Noah Gragson At Phoenix?
Erik Jones

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering for DFS at Phoenix?
Michael McDowell

an Easy Recommendation for DFS at Phoenix
Chase Briscoe

Probably Won't Win the Title
Joey Logano

Could Play Spoiler in Championship Battle at Phoenix
Tyler Reddick

Seeking to End Winless Drought, but Probably Won't Have the Speed
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Looks to Protect Top-10 Points Finish at Phoenix
Brad Keselowski

Hasn't Been Fast at Phoenix With RFK Racing
Daniel Suarez

With Nothing at Stake, Expect Little From Daniel Suarez
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well, but Will Probably Finish Worse Than he Starts
Chris Buescher

Ryan Preece has a Shot to Overtake Chris Buescher as RFK Racing's Lead Driver
Austin Dillon

Looks to Avoid Finishing Last in NASCAR Playoffs
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Might be a Worthy DFS Option

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