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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 14

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Myers started off blazing hot, but the last several weeks left him high and dry when All-Star selections were made. Being overlooked in favor of Brad Hand to represent your team should be motivation enough for Myers and it might just be working. The average hasn't jumped up just yet, but Myers is having fewer hitless games and taking more walks. Unlike last year, the Padres won't be selling off their entire starting lineup around him at the deadline, so a second half collapse is unlikely. Keep the faith in this young stud.

Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) 83contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Another injury further secures Taylor's starting job in Washington. We already know about Taylor's power/speed combination (12 HR/9 SB this year), but he's finally not hurting his owners in the averages. Taylor is batting .281, although that's mainly due to an elevated .375 BABIP. The good news is that since Trea Turner went out, Taylor has been moved up to second in the lineup, which should increase his run-scoring even further. This seems like a good time to add him if he's available.

Russell Martin (C/3B, TOR) 92contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Martin's average hasn't moved from its current .218 mark despite increased contact over the past week. To be honest, you shouldn't have expected anything higher than .255 from him anyway. As a backstop, power is the key to his fantasy value, although he hasn't produced much in that category either. If you want to point to an increased 17.2% BB% and a low .235 BABIP to say that he could still improve, that's fine. It still won't be enough to make him mixed-league worthy as a 34-year-old catcher on a mediocre team.

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 91% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Bell still seems hell-bent on pulling the ball to sacrifice contact for power. Maybe that's because all offseason people kept asking whether he had enough power to be an everyday first baseman. He's certainly delivering in that regard, jacking 15 homers and driving in 38 already, but he's hitting a paltry .227. His plate discipline is actually very good (0.56 BB/K), but he's hitting the ball on the ground 52% of the time. Chances are he will adjust his approach enough that the power will decrease while average will increase accordingly. He's too good a hitter not to figure things out, but it may extend beyond his rookie season before that happens.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (1B, TEX) 33% contact rate last seven days (-26%)

To say that Gallo swings and misses quite a bit is an understatement, but we need to look hard and long at what's been happening lately. He's got one hit in the past week and 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. His average has gone from bad to worse as the season progresses, starting at .213 in April, down to .202 in May and then .162 in June. 21 home runs in half a season is nothing to sneeze at, but there comes a point where the damage he's doing to your average outweighs the power. That's especially true with the rate that balls are leaving the yard, making HR more easily replaceable on the waiver wire. The Rangers' poor record could work in Gallo's favor if they keep falling out of contention, but he could still see his playing time reduced if he doesn't turn things around.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 53% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

That 53% contact rate has been parlayed into a .368 average over the past week, so this shouldn't be read into. Unlike Gallo, Duda is a case of a slugger that is making the most out of his limited contact. Most encouraging is that he's making a ton of hard contact (45.6%), which also indicates that he is healthy. Duda is on pace to match his career high of 30 HR, although 92 RBI seems highly unlikely given the Mets' offensive woes. He is right around his career average of .246 (currently batting .249), but at least that's something you can live with when looking for power.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) 55% contact rate last seven days (-15%)

Cruz is having another solid season, even if it isn't one of his best. He's far off the 40-HR mark that he's reached the last three seasons, but a slash line of .286/.369/.500 is still top notch. Cruz is currently boasting the second-highest BB/K rate of his career (0.57) and striking out less than he has since 2010, so don't read into this recent mini-slump at all.

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) 54% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Reynolds may not eke out an All-Star bid, although he surely has a strong case for deserving it. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, Reynolds is still matching last year's career-best .282 batting average, but has managed to resurrect his power along with it. Will it keep up in the second half? I won't pretend to know the answer to that question, but I can say that his average fell 52 points from May to June and he was hitless in his first 12 AB of July until a pair of singles on Tuesday. He appears to be a sell-high candidate based on track record, but I'm not expecting a huge decline considering how well he's taken to Colorado and the surrounding cast he has.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Josh Jacobs

Saves Fantasy Performance With Two Touchdowns Against Cardinals
Javonte Williams

Records Second 100-Yard Rushing Game in Week 7
Darren Waller

Suffers Pectoral Strain, Will Undergo MRI
Jake Ferguson

Scores Two TDs Despite Return of Top Dallas Receiver
Rashee Rice

Heavily Involved in Debut, Scores Two Touchdowns Against Raiders
Christian McCaffrey

Carries Niners Offense Again, has First 100-Yard Rushing Game
D'Andre Swift

Goes for Season-High 124 Rushing Yards in Week 7 Win
CeeDee Lamb

Tops 100 Receiving Yards in First Game Back From Injury
Keenan Allen

Turns Back the Clock in Dominant Week 7 Outing
Trey McBride

Explodes for 10 Catches, 74 Yards, Two Touchdowns in Loss
Jayden Daniels

to Undergo MRI on Monday
Kyler Murray

Cardinals Commit to Kyler Murray as Starter When Healthy
Oronde Gadsden

Enjoys Spectacular Showing in Week 7
Justin Herbert

Salvages Big Fantasy Performance in Ugly Loss at Home
Jaxson Dart

Four Touchdowns Not Enough in Loss to Broncos
Jonathan Taylor

Produces Another Three-Touchdown Outing
Bo Nix

Scores Four Touchdowns in Improbable Comeback Win
Toumani Camara

Gets Four-Year Contract Extension from Portland
Shaedon Sharpe

Blazers Agree on a Contract Extension
Jayden Daniels

Won't Return in Week 7
Kevin Durant

Lands Two-Year Contract Extension with Houston
George Springer

Returns to Lineup for Game 6 of ALCS
Domantas Sabonis

to Miss at Least a Few Games, Will be Re-Evaluated in One Week
Jayden Daniels

Questionable to Return in Week 7 Against Cowboys
Spencer Knight

Takes on Ducks Sunday
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Sharks Place Shakir Mukhamadullin on Injured Reserve
Kasperi Kapanen

Exits With Injury Sunday
Jonathan Lekkerimaki

Suffers Injury Sunday
Chris Olave

Scores Twice While Evading Injury
Filip Chytil

Injured on Sunday
Teddy Blueger

Hurt in Sunday's WIn
A.J. Brown

Back on Track With Two Touchdowns Sunday
Jason Dickinson

Remains Out Sunday
CFB

Colorado State Fires Head Coach Jay Norvell After Four Seasons
CFB

Florida Fires Head Coach Billy Napier After Four Years
Nils Lundkvist

Expected to Miss Time
Pierre-Luc Dubois

to Remain Out Sunday
Jacob Bryson

in Concussion Protocol
Niko Mikkola

Hurt in Saturday's Loss
Shayne Gostisbehere

Exits Saturday's Action With Lower-Body Injury
Mark Stone

Suffers Apparent Wrist Injury
Chase Elliott

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William Byron

Seeks First Win at Talladega to Overcome Las Vegas Crash
Chase Briscoe

Likely to Finish Worse Than he Starts
Kyle Larson

Despite No Wins on Drafting Tracks, Kyle Larson is Improving
Tyler Reddick

Despite Winning at Talladega, Tyler Reddick's Drafting Record Is Not So Hot
Ross Chastain

Poor Qualifying Makes him a Strong DFS Option at Talladega
Chris Buescher

Excellent Crash Avoidance Could Reap Dividends at Talladega
Ty Gibbs

If Ty Gibbs' Team Executes a Better Strategy, he Could Win at Talladega
Daniel Suarez

Hopes for Clutch Talladega Win to Remain in the NASCAR Cup Series
Josh Berry

Might Contend at Talladega
Austin Dillon

Doesn't Lead Enough at Talladega to Contend for Wins
Frederick Gaudreau

to Be Sidelined for 4-6 Weeks
Kaiden Guhle

to Miss 4-6 Weeks
Patrick Kane

Ruled Out for Sunday
Noah Hanifin

Not Ready to Return Saturday
Brandon Montour

Takes Leave of Absence
Joel Kiviranta

Out Indefinitely With Lower-Body Injury
Hampus Lindholm

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Rob Dillingham

Timberwolves Exercise Team Option on Rob Dillingham
Scotty Pippen Jr.

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least 12 Weeks
New York Knicks

Knicks Cut Ties with Garrison Mathews
Dallas Mavericks

Dalano Banton Waived by the Mavericks
Miami Heat

Precious Achiuwa Waived by Miami
Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks Waive Dennis Smith Jr.
Macklin Celebrini

Has Multi-Point Outing Friday
Brendan Donovan

Undergoes Sports Hernia Surgery
George Springer

Exits Game 5 Early After HBP on his Knee
Jackson Chourio

Back in Game 4 Lineup Against Dodgers
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Has Bone Spurs Removed From his Elbow
Brendan Allen

Set For UFC Vancouver Main Event
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder A Favorite At UFC Vancouver
Mike Malott

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Kevin Holland

Set For UFC Vancouver Co-Main Event
Aiemann Zahabi

Looks For His Seventh Consecutive Win
Bradley Beal

Set to Make Clippers Debut in Preseason Finale
Marlon Vera

Returns At UFC Vancouver
VJ Edgecombe

Set to Return for Preseason Finale
Jeremy Sochan

Won't Play in Season Opener
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
AJ Green

Bucks Agree to Contract Extension
Manon Fiorot

Looks To Bounce Back
Aoriqileng

Aori Aoriqileng Looks To Rebound
Cody Gibson

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jaylen Brown

Considered Day-to-Day with Hamstring Tightness
Kyle Nelson

Set For Lightweight Bout
Matt Frevola

Set To Open Up UFC Vancouver Main Card
Jaden Ivey

Will Miss Four Weeks After Knee Surgery
Paul George

Expected to Miss Season Opener
Joel Embiid

Set to Make Preseason Debut on Friday
CFB

Curt Cignetti Signs Eight-Year, $11.6 Million Extension With Indiana
Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodon Unlikely to Be Ready for Opening Day After Elbow Surgery
Anthony Santander

Removed From ALCS Roster With Back Injury
Jackson Chourio

Aggravates Hamstring, Pulled Early in Game 3 of NLCS
Aaron Judge

Will Not Need Elbow Surgery
Anthony Volpe

Won't be Ready for Start of Next Season
Gerrit Cole

Won't be Ready for Opening Day Next Year
Milwaukee Bucks

Chris Livingston Waived by the Bucks
Keegan Murray

Nique Clifford Shines in Keegan Murray's Absence
Cooper Flagg

Continues to Start at Point Guard
CFB

Jermod McCoy Officially Out for Alabama Matchup
CFB

Jam Miller Questionable to Face Tennessee
CFB

Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt Probable For Saturday
Anthony Volpe

Undergoes Left-Shoulder Surgery
CFB

Jayden Gibson No Longer with Oklahoma Program
Emmanuel Clase

to be Banished for Life After Gambling Allegations?
Alex Bregman

Plans to Opt Out of Contract With Red Sox

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