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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 14

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Myers started off blazing hot, but the last several weeks left him high and dry when All-Star selections were made. Being overlooked in favor of Brad Hand to represent your team should be motivation enough for Myers and it might just be working. The average hasn't jumped up just yet, but Myers is having fewer hitless games and taking more walks. Unlike last year, the Padres won't be selling off their entire starting lineup around him at the deadline, so a second half collapse is unlikely. Keep the faith in this young stud.

Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) 83contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Another injury further secures Taylor's starting job in Washington. We already know about Taylor's power/speed combination (12 HR/9 SB this year), but he's finally not hurting his owners in the averages. Taylor is batting .281, although that's mainly due to an elevated .375 BABIP. The good news is that since Trea Turner went out, Taylor has been moved up to second in the lineup, which should increase his run-scoring even further. This seems like a good time to add him if he's available.

Russell Martin (C/3B, TOR) 92contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Martin's average hasn't moved from its current .218 mark despite increased contact over the past week. To be honest, you shouldn't have expected anything higher than .255 from him anyway. As a backstop, power is the key to his fantasy value, although he hasn't produced much in that category either. If you want to point to an increased 17.2% BB% and a low .235 BABIP to say that he could still improve, that's fine. It still won't be enough to make him mixed-league worthy as a 34-year-old catcher on a mediocre team.

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 91% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Bell still seems hell-bent on pulling the ball to sacrifice contact for power. Maybe that's because all offseason people kept asking whether he had enough power to be an everyday first baseman. He's certainly delivering in that regard, jacking 15 homers and driving in 38 already, but he's hitting a paltry .227. His plate discipline is actually very good (0.56 BB/K), but he's hitting the ball on the ground 52% of the time. Chances are he will adjust his approach enough that the power will decrease while average will increase accordingly. He's too good a hitter not to figure things out, but it may extend beyond his rookie season before that happens.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (1B, TEX) 33% contact rate last seven days (-26%)

To say that Gallo swings and misses quite a bit is an understatement, but we need to look hard and long at what's been happening lately. He's got one hit in the past week and 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. His average has gone from bad to worse as the season progresses, starting at .213 in April, down to .202 in May and then .162 in June. 21 home runs in half a season is nothing to sneeze at, but there comes a point where the damage he's doing to your average outweighs the power. That's especially true with the rate that balls are leaving the yard, making HR more easily replaceable on the waiver wire. The Rangers' poor record could work in Gallo's favor if they keep falling out of contention, but he could still see his playing time reduced if he doesn't turn things around.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 53% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

That 53% contact rate has been parlayed into a .368 average over the past week, so this shouldn't be read into. Unlike Gallo, Duda is a case of a slugger that is making the most out of his limited contact. Most encouraging is that he's making a ton of hard contact (45.6%), which also indicates that he is healthy. Duda is on pace to match his career high of 30 HR, although 92 RBI seems highly unlikely given the Mets' offensive woes. He is right around his career average of .246 (currently batting .249), but at least that's something you can live with when looking for power.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) 55% contact rate last seven days (-15%)

Cruz is having another solid season, even if it isn't one of his best. He's far off the 40-HR mark that he's reached the last three seasons, but a slash line of .286/.369/.500 is still top notch. Cruz is currently boasting the second-highest BB/K rate of his career (0.57) and striking out less than he has since 2010, so don't read into this recent mini-slump at all.

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) 54% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Reynolds may not eke out an All-Star bid, although he surely has a strong case for deserving it. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, Reynolds is still matching last year's career-best .282 batting average, but has managed to resurrect his power along with it. Will it keep up in the second half? I won't pretend to know the answer to that question, but I can say that his average fell 52 points from May to June and he was hitless in his first 12 AB of July until a pair of singles on Tuesday. He appears to be a sell-high candidate based on track record, but I'm not expecting a huge decline considering how well he's taken to Colorado and the surrounding cast he has.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jonathan Kuminga

Remains Out Tuesday
Keegan Murray

Could Make his Season Debut This Week
Caris LeVert

Liston as Out on Tuesday
Tobias Harris

Could Return Thursday
Ausar Thompson

Questionable Again on Tuesday
Joe Mixon

Uncertainty Remains Around Joe Mixon's Return Timeline
Cade Cunningham

is Questionable Tuesday in Atlanta
Jaylen Warren

Mike Tomlin Optimistic About Jaylen Warren's Availability for Week 12
C.J. Stroud

Not Expected to Play on Thursday Night
Aaron Rodgers

Won't Need Surgery on Fractured Wrist, Could Play in Week 12?
Davis Mills

Prepping for Third Straight Start in Week 12?
CFB

Sam Leavitt Set to Enter Transfer Portal?
Mason Rudolph

Could Make His First Start of 2025 in Week 12
Brock Wright

Sets Career-High in Targets; Lined Up for More Work?
Stephon Castle

Out Against Grizzlies
Kimani Vidal

Struggles Again and Faces Role Uncertainty After Bye
Dak Prescott

in Full Command Monday Night With Four Touchdown Passes
Quentin Johnston

Posts Zero Catches During Offensive Collapse
George Pickens

Erupts for 144 Yards, Touchdown in Monday Night Win
Jrue Holiday

Unlikely to Play Tuesday
CeeDee Lamb

George Pickens Benched for First Drive
LeBron James

Officially Listed as Questionable for Tuesday
Jose Altuve

Undergoes Foot Surgery
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Exits Monday's Game With Groin Injury
Julian Strawther

Out on Monday
Cameron Johnson

Cleared for Action Monday
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Available Against Bulls
Zaccharie Risacher

Considered Questionable for Tuesday's Game
Onyeka Okongwu

Iffy for Tuesday
Kristaps Porzingis

May Miss Another Game Tuesday
Jalen Suggs

Listed as Questionable for Tuesday
Paolo Banchero

to Remain Out Tuesday
Ayo Dosunmu

Playing on Minutes Restriction Monday
Tre Jones

Still Out Monday
Saddiq Bey

Won't Play Against OKC
Alex Singleton

Broncos Optimistic Patrick Surtain, Alex Singleton Will Return After the Bye
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful Again in Week 12
Shedeur Sanders

Expected to Make First Career Start in Week 12
Josh Jacobs

Dealing With Knee Contusion
Mikael Granlund

Unavailable Monday
Alex Bregman

Red Sox Going for Either Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso?
Conor Garland

Misses Monday's Game
Eetu Luostarinen

Out on Monday
Drake London

Considered "Week-to-Week"
Drew Doughty

Listed as Week-to-Week
Ja'Marr Chase

Being Suspended for One Game for Unsportsmanlike Conduct
John Carlson

a Game-Time Call Monday
Viktor Arvidsson

Out Week-to-Week
Charlie McAvoy

Out Against Hurricanes
CFB

James Franklin to be Virginia Tech's Next Head Coach
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers Won't Open Brandon Aiyuk's Practice Window This Week
Joe Burrow

Could Do 11-on-11 Work This Week in Practice
Michael Penix Jr.

Heads to Injured Reserve, Could Need Full Knee Reconstruction
CFB

Fernando Mendoza the Clear Heisman Trophy Favorite?
CFB

Beau Pribula Has Chance to Face Oklahoma on Saturday
Mitchell Marner

Establishes Vegas Record Sunday
Mats Zuccarello

Logs Two Assists in Overtime Victory
Lucas Raymond

Leads Red Wings to Victory at MSG
Quinn Hughes

Delivers Four Assists in Sunday's Win
Conor Garland

Limited to Handful of Minutes Sunday
Ryan Hartman

Suffers Lower-Body Injury
Adrian Kempe

Agrees to $85 Million Extension With Kings
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated
Islam Makhachev

Claims UFC Welterweight Belt
Zhang Weili

Gets Outclassed
Valentina Shevchenko

Wins Unanimous Decision At UFC 322
Sean Brady

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Michael Morales

Remains Unbeaten
Leon Edwards

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Leon Edwards

Carlos Prates Becomes The First Man To Knock Out Leon Edwards
Beneil Dariush

Suffers Brutal First-Round Knockout Loss
Beneil Dariush

Benoit Saint Denis Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 16 Seconds
Josh Naylor

Mariners Finalizing Five-Year Contract
Scott Mayfield

Available Sunday
NYI

Max Shabanov Returns From 12-Game Absence Sunday
Samuel Honzek

Out Week-to-Week
Kirby Dach

Sidelined for 4-6 Weeks
Thatcher Demko

Considered Week-to-Week
Filip Hronek

Good to Go Sunday
Quinn Hughes

Back in Action Sunday
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate Not Dealing With Long-Term Injuries
CFB

Virginia Tech Close To Naming James Franklin As Head Coach
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful vs. Arkansas On Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Blue Jays Interested in Signing Edwin Diaz?
Jacob deGrom

Named AL Comeback Player of the Year
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Wins NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
Aroldis Chapman

Named AL Reliever of the Year
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Named NL Reliever of the Year
Justin Thomas

Will Miss Start Of 2026 After Undergoing Back Surgery
Islam Makhachev

Set For UFC 322 Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena

Set For His First Title Defense
Zhang Weili

Can Become The New Women's Flyweight Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

Set For UFC 322 Co-Main Event
Michael Morales

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Mario Craver a Game-Time Decision for Week 12
Sean Brady

Set For Title Eliminator Bout
Carlos Prates

A Favorite At UFC 322
Leon Edwards

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set To Open Up UFC 322 Main Card
Beneil Dariush

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
CFB

Virginia's Chandler Morris Trending Toward Facing Duke on Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Says There's a "50-50" Chance he Returns to Mets
Shohei Ohtani

Wins his Fourth MVP Award
Aaron Judge

Wins AL MVP Award Again
Raisel Iglesias

Dodgers Interested in Signing Raisel Iglesias
Pete Alonso

Orioles Could be in the Mix to Sign Pete Alonso
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year

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