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Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 8 (2024), and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?
With the weekend upon us, a fresh batch of fantasy baseball waiver wire recommendations will fill the RotoBaller feeds. Our team's various waiver wire recommendations are coming with full force this weekend so be sure to check out all the great articles there. As we consider players who are in the midst of hot streaks or expanded roles on their teams, there is always a buyer-beware element to our waiver wire decisions.
Are hot streaks a result of luck or a change in skills or roles? Will today's costly waiver wire investment just end up on tomorrow's most-dropped list just because we were trying to chase an unsustainable set of statistics? Evaluating the hot waiver wire recommendations for their under-the-hood performance will help fantasy managers further understand not only should an investment be made in certain players, but also how much of an investment to acquire their services.
Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend that deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.
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Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins
Max Kepler has looked like the second coming of Harmon Killebrew since his return from injury on April 22. Since that date, Kepler is slashing an incredible .434/.492/.755 with three home runs, 14 RBI, eight doubles, and he even threw in a stolen base for good measure (Kepler had one total stolen base last season). Add in seven walks and Kepler has been one of the most valuable hitters in both rotisserie and points formats over the last two and a half weeks.
I hate to be the one to throw cold Minnesota lake water on the party, but Kepler's run is going to have to come to an end sometime in the near future. In that magnificent span, Kepler has produced a batting average on balls in play of .444 (the league average is .288). That means Kepler's BABIP is 54% above the league average in that time. I think it's safe to admit that Kepler is not a 54%-above-league-average type of hitter.
Since Max Kepler rejoined the @Twins lineup, he has a 1.218 OPS and the team has a 13-1 record. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) May 7, 2024
The good news for Kepler is he started the last time the Minnesota Twins faced a left-handed pitcher. He was on the bench for the last four healthy games where they faced southpaws, so it seems the Twins might be looking to add his bat to every lineup. That will certainly help his counting stats on the season, but I can't help but think the ratios are going to start crashing back down to earth. According to Statcast, his expected batting average (.239) is 90 points lower than his actual average (.329).
Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox
Looking at monthly splits, things seem to be heading in the right direction for Red Sox shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela. After an abysmal March and April (.186/.218/.343), things are looking up for the rookie in May with a .320/.320/.480 line with a handful of home runs and stolen bases now on the season. Eligible at both shortstop and in the outfield on many fantasy sites, Rafaela could be a popular pick-up in fantasy baseball leagues this weekend. Not so fast my friend.
Ceddanne Rafaela now has a hit in every game this month.
Good for a 7-game hitting streak.
Also, a hit in 9 of his last 10 games. pic.twitter.com/ADmZw00VRP
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) May 9, 2024
That lofty .320 average this month is buoyed by an unsustainable .438 BABIP that is compounded by zero walks this month. In addition, Rafaela is hitting more ground balls and fewer fly balls this month than he did in the first five weeks of the season. That's not the recipe for long-term success and sustained batting average for fantasy managers. Perhaps the most glaring part of his offensive game, however, is his hard-hit rate. What was a decent 22% in April is now down to just 5% in May.
Put it all together and Ceddanne Rafaela is off to a hot start in May thanks mostly to smoke, mirrors, and luck. He still plays every day and doesn't seem to have his job in jeopardy, the hot start over the first seven games in May looks very unlikely to continue for long. For shortstops, I would rather have Jose Caballero or Zach Neto off of the waiver wire.
Leody Taveras, Texas Rangers
Similar to Ceddanne Rafaela, Rangers' outfielder Leody Taveras is on an all-time heater (by his standards) over the last two weeks. In that span, he is hitting .345/.457/.517 with a 17% walk rate and a couple of home runs. Taveras' hot bat is helping the Rangers stay above .500 despite losing Josh Jung and Wyatt Langford to injury, and Corey Seager having a terrible start to the year.
Also like Rafaela, Taveras' hot streak is accompanied by an unsustainable .409 BABIP and WAY too many ground balls (48%, twelve percent more than in March/April). He has cut down on his strikeouts significantly this year (17.6%), but the 25-year-old has not shown this kind of hit tool at the major league level before.
There is something to be said for the fact that Taveras has clearly changed his approach and is not going to the opposite field with the ball at all this month. In March and April, 40.8% of Taveras' batted balls were to the opposite field, while that dropped to 17% in May. If that continues, Taveras should be able to continue providing some power from time to time, but he will need to get more balls in the air to make it stick for five more months.
Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
My personal fantasy teams are currently loving this Jameson Taillon start to the year (he was a late-round pick in a lot of places for me). My personal fantasy teams are also looking to see how I can cash out on these recent performances. Ever since Taillon returned from his groin injury four starts ago, he has been electric. There are, however, a lot of signs pointing to regression.
The Cubs are 10-0 this season when Jameson Taillon or Shota Imanaga take the hill. pic.twitter.com/vAjarF7YLD
— Chief Cub (@ChiefCub) May 4, 2024
In addition to the lowest strikeout rate of his career (6.00 K/9), Taillon also has a .197 BABIP allowed, which would be the fifth-lowest among all starting pitchers if he had enough innings to qualify. He has allowed just two home runs in 24 innings through Thursday and has a left-on-base percentage of 93.4% this season (league average is 72%). His first pitch strike percentage is way up to 78% this year, but it's not supported by a drop in his swinging strike rate to 8% in 2024.
Take all of this and add the fact that Taillon was scratched on Friday due to a possible injury, and I'm not rushing to pick him up this weekend. He is the textbook definition of a sell-high candidate if you already have him on your roster and it comes out that he is not injured.
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