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Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 22 (2024) and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?
This is the final Buyer Beware column for the 2024 fantasy baseball season and I hope it has helped in your waiver-wire decisions throughout the year. One thing that is clear when researching this piece is fantasy managers are always hoping for a quick fix with player pickups. They are looking for someone who is hot and can fix a lineup issue immediately.
However, most hot streaks don't last and cold streaks can end on a moment's notice. We must be cautious and critical about who we pick up and why. Many players on the waiver wire are there for a reason and a few hot games are not enough to justify a roster spot.
Below are four players widely recommended as waiver-wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend and deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.
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Jake McCarthy, OF - Arizona Diamondbacks
The rise of Jake McCarthy in 2024 has been exciting and dramatic. After a miserable .243/.318/.316 year in 2023, McCarthy has rebounded with an astounding .313/.384/.456 line that includes six home runs and 18 steals in 103 games.
His strikeout rate is down, his hard-hit and barrel rates are up, and his launch angle of 11.9 degrees means he is finally getting some lift on his batted balls in 2024. The only problem with the sudden dramatic rise is that some fall could come just as fast, as fantasy managers should be aware.
Jake McCarthy right now. 31 Hits in last 67 AB pic.twitter.com/ccxkOR9L4M
— DBacks Dispatch (@DbacksDispatch) August 16, 2024
McCarthy is an incredibly fast player, so metrics like batting average on balls in play (BABIP) don't work the same way for McCarthy as they would for teammate Christian Walker, for example. McCarthy can beat out balls on the ground, so his BABIP will always be high. But this year, however, much of his success is driven by a BABIP that is at .367 entering Friday, or more than 70 points above the league average.
That he has been able to sustain that for a whole season is remarkable. Statcast data believes, however, that his batting average should be .278 (instead of .311) and his slugging should be .391 (instead of .457). The dip that's coming may be quick or gradual, but some regression is coming.
Junior Caminero, 3B - Tampa Bay Rays
The No. 2 prospect made his 2024 debut this week and there will be a MAD race to secure his services in any league where he was not already stashed on someone's bench. Caminero has massive power potential, and it is only a matter of time before he starts hitting home runs in the big leagues.
But until that time comes, his biggest flaw may prevent him from reaching the heights fantasy managers are expecting him to reach. The thing that Caminero must work on at this level is his awful strikeout rate.
Junior Caminero's first hit back in The Show comes at 116.3 mph, a top 50 exit velocity recorded during the MLB season.
MLB's No. 2 prospect (@RaysBaseball) ranked second at Triple-A in avg. EV and hard-hit rate prior to his callup. pic.twitter.com/Fq92nf5wTX
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 14, 2024
In nine total Major League Baseball games (seven last year, two this year), Caminero already has 11 strikeouts to just three walks. He had one home run and one double last season but no extra-base hits in his first couple of games this season.
The primary problem (in addition to the 23% swinging strike rate) is that Caminero is allowing a full 75% of the first pitches he sees go for strikes. He is starting most accounts behind and the pitcher then has the advantage. This is a correctable problem, but don't spend the big bucks until it is fixed.
David Peralta, OF - San Diego Padres
After two hits in Colorado on Friday night and back-to-back games with home runs on Wednesday and Thursday, 10-year veteran David Peralta is on everyone's waiver wish list for this weekend. I fully endorse grabbing him if you can for the last two games in Coors, but if you have Sunday night waivers, that might be a different story.
David Peralta does not play against left-handed pitchers so he has benefited from the fact that the Padres have faced eight right-handers in a row. That ends Saturday against Kyle Freeland. The Padres will also face at least two left-handers against the Twins and Mets next week.
David Peralta since Fernando Tatis Jr. went on the IL (June 24): .305 AVG, .340 OBP, .547 SLG, .887 OPS, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 15 R
Another minor league deal that has worked out so far this year pic.twitter.com/5kG0xVgih8
— Talking Friars (@TalkingFriars) August 15, 2024
In addition to the platoon advantage he has seen, Peralta has an unsustainable .346 BABIP over the last two weeks when he has been red-hot. His seasonal number is just .309, so some regression is coming there.
Peralta also has four home runs in the last two weeks, but only six total on the season. That kind of power won't last, either, as his home run per fly ball rate in August is a wild 57.1%. That number would be among the highest in history if it continued, so I expect Peralta to be grounded in multiple ways beginning in the next few days.
Zebby Matthews, SP - Minnesota Twins
Zebby Matthews is the sixth-ranked prospect in the Minnesota Twins system and has come up and had immediate success in his first start. In five innings, Matthews struck out five batters, did not walk anyone, and allowed just two earned runs. That's a common line for Matthews, especially the part where he didn't walk anyone.
The book on Matthews is that he won't blow a lot of people away, but he has impeccable command. His walk rates at his last three stops in the minor leagues were 0.47/9 innings, 0.98/9, and 0.00/9. He simply doesn't let teams win by giving them free men on base.
Zebby Matthews showed out in his MLB debut🌟
5 IP / 5 H / 2 R / 0 BB / 5 K @Twins | #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/jvajVG2dEM
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) August 14, 2024
However, at the major league level, he will have to just be about that perfect going forward. If he does not have overpowering swing-and-miss stuff or a severe ground-ball rate (around 45% in the minor leagues), he will need to make sure his command transitions to the big show.
FanGraphs points out that since college, Matthews has only walked 48 of the 1,440 batters he faced before this season, so he certainly has the pedigree. But none of his pitches are of a grade that Major League Baseball hitters will be flummoxed by them. Tread cautiously here.
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