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Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 11 (2024), and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?
With the weekend upon us, a fresh batch of fantasy baseball waiver wire recommendations will fill the RotoBaller feeds. Our team's various waiver wire recommendations are coming with full force this weekend so be sure to check out all the great articles there. As we consider players who are in the midst of hot streaks or expanded roles on their teams, there is always a buyer-beware element to our waiver wire decisions.
Are hot streaks a result of luck or a change in skills or roles? Will today's costly waiver wire investment just end up on tomorrow's most-dropped list just because we were trying to chase an unsustainable set of statistics? Evaluating the hot waiver wire recommendations for their under-the-hood performance will help fantasy managers further understand not only should an investment be made in certain players, but also how much of an investment to acquire their services.
Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend that deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.
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Nick Gonzales, 2B/SS - Pittsburgh Pirates
Nick Gonzales has a strong pedigree after being drafted with the seventh overall pick in 2020 out of New Mexico State, but he has exceeded all expectations in his second MLB stint this year. He is hitting .319/.377/.536 with three home runs, two steals, and 16 RBI in just 19 games. Since getting the call-up to the majors on May 10, he has started all but one game.
But there are some potential cracks in Gonzales' armor that might start to grow as the season progresses. Most of what can be pointed to as potential pitfalls for Gonzales center around how lucky he has been at the plate since arriving in Pittsburgh. The first thing that stands out is his .396 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is more than 100 points above the league average. Gonzales has decent speed, but not enough of it to have a BABIP that high.
Nick Gonzales has been the 4th most valuable player in baseball over the last two weeks. pic.twitter.com/jb4DfaEpIu
— Ⓜ️arty (@MartyOnFifthAve) May 31, 2024
Gonzales also has a crazy 50% hard-hit rate through his first 78 plate appearances. For context, that would be a top-20 number in MLB if he qualified. Bobby Witt Jr. is at 50%. Oneil Cruz is at 52%. I believe Gonzales is a good hitter, but not yet on par with some of the game's best. He has a high 15.1% swinging strike rate, and some of those barrels might turn into whiffs soon.
Masyn Winn, SS - St. Louis Cardinals
After Nick Gonzales, Masyn Winn might be the hottest player on the waiver wire this weekend after delivering a number of strong offensive performances for St. Louis. In the past two weeks, he is batting an even. 400 which actually caused him to take over the leadoff spot in the lineup four times during that span. Winn won the job out of Spring Training and seemingly has gotten better and better as the season has progressed.
What's been discouraging, however, is the complete lack of one of Winn's best abilities: stolen bases. After stealing seven bases in the first six weeks of the season, Winn has one total swipe since May 10. As his average and on-base ability has improved immensely over the last month, his speed has been nonexistent. He's chipped in two homers in that span, but those are his only two on the season and Winn is not thought of as a strong power hitter.
His BABIP over the last two weeks is .357 coupled with a .596 slugging percentage. The only time Winn had a slugging percentage over .500 in the minors was at High-A ball and Statcast expected slugging percentage numbers show he should be at about .357 at this point in the season. There is a drop-off in offensive production coming, and it's just a matter of when not if.
Jesse Winker, OF - Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have decided they are going to steal bases like they are the 1980s St. Louis Cardinals apparently. Their team total is 93 heading into June and only two other teams are above even 67 steals. One of the biggest beneficiaries of that has been Jesse Winker. He has an astounding 10 steals this year, including five in his last seven games.
Now, I'm all for being aggressive on the basepaths and think that the Nationals have a team to try that, but I just don't think Winker fits that mold. For his career, Winker now has 13 total steals in eight seasons. Yes, 10 of his 13 career steals have come in the first two months of 2024. This is becoming like the year when Evan Gattis had 11 triples (and 12 for his entire career).
Jesse Winker has 10 steals... he has 13 his entire career. #nationals
— Ray Flowers (@TheRayFlowers) May 31, 2024
The disappointing tradeoff is Winker's normally stout batting average and slugging percentage have suffered. He is hitting just .235 on the year with a .391 slugging percentage where he is a career .262/.440 hitter. He is healthy this year after missing 100 games last season, so we can't take that away from him. But I'm not picking up Winker this weekend hoping I get eight steals a month for the rest of the season.
Jose Urena, SP/RP - Texas Rangers
After escaping awful situations in Colorado and with the Chicago White Sox over the last two seasons, Jose Urena has had a career resurgence with the Texas Rangers. After five straight seasons with an ERA over 5.00, he is at 3.74 this year with his lowest walk rate (3.15 per nine innings) since 2019. The hesitancy on Urena's candidacy as a waiver add this weekend isn't necessarily focused on skills, but rather on opportunity.
Out of Urena's 15 games this year, only five have been starts, and Urena has basically become a spot starter when the Rangers need another arm. As the summer progresses, the need for more arms in the Rangers' rotation should decrease significantly. Jon Gray should be the first to come off the IL sometime in the next week. After that, the countdown has begun for Tyler Mahle, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom to all come back from injury. There will certainly be a need to fill in for some of those guys throughout the season, but Urena's place in the rotation is not guaranteed.
Final line for Jose Ureña in his first against the Marlins.
2.1 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 SO, 1 HR, 65 NP#Marlins
— Kevin Barral (@kevin_barral) June 1, 2024
There are a few nits to pick in Urena's performance this year as well. He has never been a strikeout pitcher (6.11 K/9 this year). His BABIP allowed is low (.271). His strand rate is on the high side (83%). His expected ERA (4.09) and his FIP (4.60) show that there might be some regression coming in that department. That all played out when he allowed four total runs and just one strikeout against Miami in his return to his original team on Friday night. He's not high on my priority list with Detroit up next this coming week.
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