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Kev Mahserejian takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 8. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.
We are at the quarter mark of the fantasy season and things are starting to figure themselves out. For example, Kris Bryant has seemingly found his stroke and shut the window closed on buy-low opportunities. Several other players around the league are also beginning to find their groove, yet there are still a few inefficiencies out there to take advantage of.
One player, in particular, (Jose Ramirez) is someone I was very low on early on in the season. However, with how astronomically bad he has been of late, there is an opportunity to buy low and potentially get a top-30 bat ROS. I get into it a bit further, but mainly, I just want to clarify to his owners reading this now that if you have him, you gotta hold him. Worst comes to worst and he's still hot garbage in early July, then consider dumping him. For now, bank on regression because it is way too late to sell.
This is not the full, comprehensive list for buys and sells, but it is where your focus should be for this upcoming week. Best of luck dealing.
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Undervalued Players - Week 8
These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.
Jose Ramirez - (3B, CLE)
99% owned
Ok, NOW is the time to buy Jose Ramirez. His owners are probably fed up and want to offload him ASAP. If you can squeeze a trade for him without giving up too much on your end, I suggest looking into it. JRam has been hot garbage this season but should be better. He has one of the highest differentials between his actual averages (average, slugging, wOBA) and his expected ones. He is stealing bases, so at least there is some modicum production during this slump.
He might not be a superstar for the rest of the year, but a productive five-category player with upside is always worth taking a chance on. His strikeout rate and walk rate are slightly worse than last season but are still VERY good and represent some stability in his skillset. Once his power regresses to the mean, he will start converting more hits and home runs. Make sure to get offers in soon.
Kyle Schwarber - (OF, CHC)
42% owned
Schwarby has had a rough go of it for the past few years. An ACL tear forced a positional change and it has been a lot tougher to assess his value given his production from the outfield rather than catcher. Schwarber's current production has warranted the many drops that have occurred throughout various leagues, but, if he still had catcher eligibility, he'd be a must-own guy.
Underlying numbers suggest that Schwarbs is due for a bit of a bounce-back that could even see him viable in leagues that value batting average. As a former top-5 pick, he has the bat to produce much more than he has thus far but maybe needs to find his groove. Manager Joe Maddon has been playing with his place in the batting order and just recently slapped him in the leadoff spot. Friday night provided enough production (three runs, two RBI, three walks, one home run) to maybe justify sticking at the one-spot. His knack for taking a base should twist Maddon's arm enough.
I would not run to trade for Schwarber in shallower leagues but definitely would try in deep 12-plus teamers. If he's available on the wire, give him a chance for a few weeks and see if he can get it going. I'd certainly be more inclined to own him if on-base mattered for your leagues.
Diego Castillo (SP/RP, TB)
49% owned
Castillo was an honorable mention a few weeks back, however, with his recent play along with Jose Alvarado's blow up against the Yankees Friday night, there may be an opportunity for him to seize a larger share of the closer role. As of now, Castillo owns five saves to go along with some elite ratios. A 33 percent k-rate, 8 percent walk rate and sub-three xFIP/SIERA indicate sustainable success going forward.
Typically, right-handed relievers earn the closer role, while lefties are reserved as specialists. Alvarado should see his fair share of opportunities to close out games during the rest of the season, but he may also be micro-managed. Castillo has been dominant and should continue to roll through late-inning stretches. There will be days where he is brought in during the eighth inning to face a tougher stretch of batters, but as long as he keeps the inning clean, that's a boost for your fantasy squad.
Pick him up if he's available and take advantage of the SP eligibility. Utilize him wisely in leagues with limited RP/P slots.
Overvalued Players - Week 7
Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag.
Eugenio Suarez - (3B, CIN )
97% owned
Suarez is on fire. These past two weeks have served his owners well, placing him in prime sell territory. Suarez has overperformed quite a bit and might be due for a bit of a fall soon. To his credit, he has seen a significant jump in power in each of the past two seasons. Unfortunately, the jump made this season, is far too steep to maintain for a hitter of even his caliber.
Although he should not be expected to keep his torrid pace, Suarez owners should be happy to hold on if they can not find a proper suitor. He's proven over the past two seasons that he is one of the premiere fantasy third basemen in the game (particularly due to his homer-friendly home park).
Michael Brantley - (OF, HOU)
89% owned
Michael Brantley is an odd asset. He has performed very well these past two seasons, but I still have a hard time trusting him thanks to 2016 and 2017. He has dealt with chronic injury issues, and although he is healthy now, it feels like a house of cards.
Brantley is overperforming his expected averages and playing at a very high level. There will be outfield needy owners in your league that may pay handsomely for his services. His production through the first quarter of this season is more than enough to convince someone that it is legit although I suspect that he will not keep this pace up and a large chunk of his end of year production (particularly in the power department) has been reaped.
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