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Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 11 Lineups

Darrell Henderson Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Welcome to the thrilling realm of fantasy football, where strategic decisions can make or break your weekly matchups. As we dive into Week 11 of the NFL season, fantasy owners find themselves at a critical juncture with playoff aspirations on the line. In this week's edition of starts and sits, we'll explore the players poised for gridiron glory and those who might struggle to deliver the fantasy points your team desperately needs. Whether you're chasing a playoff berth or securing a top seed, navigating the unpredictable landscape of injuries, matchups, and trends is key to emerging victorious in the fantasy arena.

As the fantasy football landscape evolves, astute owners must stay ahead of the curve, identifying emerging stars and potential pitfalls. Week 11 presents a myriad of intriguing matchups and storylines, from high-scoring shootouts to defensive struggles. In the starts section, we'll highlight players with favorable matchups or recent performances signaling a surge in fantasy production. Conversely, the sits section will provide insights into players facing tough opponents, struggling form, or potential injury concerns, guiding fantasy managers away from potential landmines that could derail their weekly success.

In this ever-changing landscape, the quest for fantasy dominance requires a keen understanding of player dynamics, team strategies, and the unpredictable nature of the NFL. Week 11 offers a tantalizing mix of opportunities and challenges, and our starts and sits guide aims to arm fantasy owners with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions, leading their teams to victory as the quest for fantasy football glory intensifies.

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Week 11 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Brock Purdy - QB, San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After a three-game stretch in which turnovers became a problem, Brock Purdy returned from the bye and was firing on all cylinders. He was the epitome of efficiency in Week 10 with a three-touchdown performance on the way to a QB6 finish. Although he is only the QB26 on the season with 250 pass attempts, he ranks as a top-12 quarterback in many of the key categories across the board.

His 2,329 passing yards (QB11) and 15 touchdowns (QB9) are reasons why he currently ranks as a QB1 in fantasy points per game (18.5). But the surprising stat in which he currently ranks as the QB1 is yards per attempt (9.3), which shows a willingness to push the ball down the field.

Heading into Week 11, Purdy should be able to keep the hot streak going in a home matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their secondary has been one of the worst in the league over the last four games, allowing 22.66 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Over that span, they are second in yards allowed (1,243) as well.

With the 49ers offense now back to full strength with the return of Deebo Samuel, it should be all systems go for Brock Purdy. I expect to see another multiple-touchdown game as Purdy finishes easily inside the top 10 at the position for Week 11.

Darrell Henderson Jr. - RB, Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Aside from a subpar effort in Week 9 before the bye, Darrell Henderson has filled in admirably for the injured Kyren Williams. With two RB2 finishes over the last three games, he has been a viable starting commodity in fantasy lineups for managers in dire need of help at the position. Henderson has been the lead back in this committee as he has held down a 56% snap share with double-digit touches in each of his three games.

Although he has not found the end zone since Week 7, Henderson has still managed to maintain a 10.2 FPPG total, good enough to rank as RB32 over the last four weeks. His paltry 2.78 yards per carry leaves a lot to be desired, but a spike in passing usage in Week 9 (55.2% route run) is an encouraging sign of fantasy upside if it were to hold up.

Week 11 could indeed be the last week we see Henderson utilized as the lead running back for the Rams as Kyren Williams will be expected back for the next game. Henderson could go out with a bang as he will be staring at a very juicy matchup at home against the Seattle Seahawks. A defense that has been the worst in the league over the last month in points allowed to the position (31.65 FPPG).

The Seahawks have surrendered the second-most yards on the ground (474) and the most touchdowns (six), which could bode well for Henderson as the Rams potentially lean on the running game. With the pendulum swinging in his favor, Henderson could provide fantasy managers with RB2 upside in Week 11 and should be considered a starter.

Jahan Dotson - WR, Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

Overall, Jahan Dotson has been a major disappointment for fantasy managers expecting a step forward in 2023. Outside of his two-week stretch in Weeks 8-9 in which he produced WR1 numbers, he has been a player who has largely been scraping by to be worthy of flex consideration. On the season, he is second at the position on routes run (396) but the lack of production has led to a very ugly 8.8 FPPG (WR59).

His inefficiencies have been maddening so far this season as he ranks as the WR27 in snap share (84.2%) on a team that is throwing the ball as much as any team in the NFL. But in most analytical categories, he ranks outside the top 40.

Heading into Week 11, do not expect to see a repeat of last week's disappearing act in which his 44 routes run led to zero receptions on two targets. This week, he will be faced with a more favorable matchup in a home game against the lowly Giants defense. Their secondary has been one of the worst in the NFL over the last four games in points allowed to opposing receivers (47.98 FPPG).

With the Commanders a heavy favorite in this game, the expectation is that the offense should be able to come out of the gates firing on all cylinders. Look for Sam Howell to keep the hot streak going, getting Dotson involved early and often. Fantasy managers should start Dotson this week as a WR3, but in a matchup where he could return WR2 upside.

Luke Musgrave - TE, Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Luke Musgrave is another one of the highly touted rookie tight ends in this 2023 draft class that has flashed potential throughout the season. Although he ranks as just TE22 on the year with 7.4 FPPG, it feels like any week could be one in which he breaks out. He has just 39 targets on the year (TE24), but six of those have been deep targets (TE3), showing a willingness by Jordan Love to trust him downfield.

That trust is warranted by Musgrave's ability to separate in the open field, where he leads the position with a target separation of 2.77. The inconsistent play from the Packers' passing game has also been a big reason for his seemingly capped production potential. But if Christian Watson continues to be plagued by inefficiencies, Love will eventually begin to look elsewhere to distribute targets.

Week 11 brings a prime opportunity for Musgrave to provide fantasy managers with TE1 production in what should be an advantageous matchup. He will be facing a Chargers defense that has been one of the worst in the league all season in points allowed to the position (14.94 FPPG). But over the last four weeks, that number has ballooned to 23.20 FPPG as they have allowed the most yards to opposing tight ends.

In a game that could become a sneaky back-and-forth affair, the potential for Musgrave to remain heavily involved in the offense is there. The Packers could also be chasing points, leading to more scoring opportunities for him. Musgrave is a player that should easily be considered a fringe TE1 play in Week 11 for fantasy managers in need of a boost.

 

Week 11 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Jalen Hurts - QB, Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs

Jalen Hurts is in the argument for the top quarterback in all of the NFL, not only fantasy football. His 23.7 FPPG paces the position and is even above his expected FPPG of 22.2 on the season. Playing in the high-octane Philadelphia Eagles offense has been a big benefit to Hurts and his fantasy managers. With weapons galore around him, he will continue to be a threat to opposing defenses in the passing game.

But the bonus that he brings from a rushing perspective is what puts him over the top in most weeks. He currently leads the position in carries per game (9.8), which has led to his seven rushing scores, also leading the league. He is the true dual-threat quarterback who embodies the "Konami code" moniker for fantasy production.

Now obviously, Hurts being in the "Boos" section for Week 11 is by no means an indication that I am saying to bench him. But the matchup this week is slated to be more of a challenge than what fantasy managers would be hoping for. He will be on the road facing a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has been one of the more consistent units in the league this year. In fact, they have been excellent in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks to this point with just 13.41 FPPG.

Typically, a matchup between these two offenses would breed one of the highest point totals for a slate. But at this time, the implied total is set at just 45.5, which speaks to just how well these two defenses could play in this contest. You will see across the board that Hurts will be ranked inside the top five at QB for Week 11, but expectations should be tempered for Hurts in this game.

Josh Jacobs - RB, Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

Josh Jacobs has been one of the more maddening running backs drafted by fantasy managers in 2023 with the inefficient play he has had for most of the season. But over the last three games, his usage has increased, leading to Jacobs producing like the high-end running back he was drafted to be. On the season, he ranks as the RB1 in carries (186), RB3 in targets (45), and RB3 in rushing yards (622).

Across the board, he ranks inside the top 10 in most analytical categories. This is why his expected fantasy points (18.5 FPPG) put him fourth in the position, but he is far from meeting that mark, ranking as the RB12 with 14.6 FPPG. One thing that should get fantasy managers excited is the team's new desire to use Jacobs as the focal point of the offense.

Jacobs' ability to be a true bell-cow running back will be put to the test in Week 11. He and the Raiders will make the cross-country trip to Miami and face the high-octane Dolphins. Not only will the Raiders be chasing points in a negative game script for Jacobs, but the Dolphins' rush defense could prove to be tough as well. Over the last four weeks, this defense has been one of the best in the league in points allowed to the position (15.27 FPPG).

With the Raiders a heavy road underdog carrying a low implied total (16.5), Jacobs's production value in this game may have to come as a receiver out of the backfield. Expect to see Jacobs struggle to find yards on the ground in this game and likely be held out of the end zone.

Stefon Diggs - WR, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

Things are topsy-turvy in Buffalo right now with the offense as they have fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. For the most part, with all the talk of the offensive struggles, you can't tell it by looking into Stefon Diggs' production numbers through his first 10 games. Aside from his poor performance this past week in his matchup against Patrick Surtain II, Diggs has been one of the more surefire bets in fantasy at the receiver position.

On the season, he ranks as the WR1 in both targets (102) and receptions (73), while also finding himself inside the top five in receiving yards (868) and touchdowns (seven). Even amidst all the drama going on with the Bills and their performance to date, Diggs continues to shine week in and week out.

As we move into Week 11, Diggs could be looking at yet another subpar game. He will be matched up against Sauce Gardner and the New York Jets defense. A secondary that has been the stingiest in the NFL over the last four games by allowing just 17.17 FPPG to opposing receivers. Not only have they given up just 202 yards over that time, but they have not allowed an opposing receiver to score either.

In a game that has one of the lowest implied totals on the slate (40), the scoring opportunities will come at a premium. I expect to see the Jets' defense do all they can to prevent Diggs from busting loose in this game, keeping him from performing at the WR1 level that we are accustomed to seeing. Fantasy managers should buckle down and prepare for Diggs to underperform in Week 11.

Evan Engram - TE, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

So far through his first nine games of the 2023 season, Evan Engram has produced at a pace in accordance with his draft ADP. His 10.8 FPPG lands him at TE8 on the year, which is about where he came off the board at the position heading into the season. Across the board, Engram ranks highly at the position in most key stats as he is the TE3 in targets (68), TE3 in receptions (55), and TE6 in yards (446).

But the glaring hole in his production is the fact that he has yet to find the end zone in 2023. Sure, you can place a lot of the blame on the subpar play coming from Trevor Lawrence, but the opportunities have been there. It's just that when the Jaguars get into the red zone, Engram flat-out disappears, as he has just two red zone targets (TE46).

Expecting a turnaround this week will be a stretch for Engram as he will be facing a very tough matchup against the Tennessee Titans. Their defense has been one of the best in the league over the last month in points allowed to the position (5.70 FPPG). Over the four-game span, they have allowed just 81 yards to opposing tight ends and have kept them out of the end zone.

With most offenses focusing their passing attack on the edges where the Titans are most vulnerable, it leaves little meat on the bones for tight ends to accrue opportunities. With this being another game on the slate between two struggling offenses, hoping for a big week from Engram is the best-case scenario.



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