MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/6/2025)

September 6, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/6/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Matt Olsen, Michael Busch, Shea Langeliers, and more!

It's a great day for home runs today with some fantastic hitting conditions in multiple parks. So I hope that I can keep up the hot picks that our writing staff has been putting forward, as my colleague Kipp Heistermann nailed another two home run calls in yesterday's article.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use them in a round-robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, September 6, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/6/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, September 6:

• Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs
• Brett Baty, New York Mets
• Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
• Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
• Shea Langeliers, Athletics

Michael Busch OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings)

I will go on the record that I really like Kyle Tucker here, too, but with his absence from the lineup last night, I am not sure if he will suit up today as he's nursing an injury.

Once again, we have the wind blowing out at Wrigley, and so we have to give the hitters in this game a long look. It's been about a week since Busch last homered (he hit one on 8/28 and 8/29), but I like the way he matches up with the Nationals' righty Brad Lord.

Lord is having a solid season for Washington, but he has struggled against lefties, allowing a .492 SLG, .217 ISO, 12% Barrel%, and 45% HardHit%. He has also allowed six home runs in his last six starts.

Busch has hit Lord's top two offerings to lefties (the four-seamer and changeup) really well this season, posting a .303 ISO vs. fastballs and a .377 ISO against changeups while hitting 15 of his 26 home runs off these two pitches. The changeup is Lord's best pitch, so it's good to see that Busch has had so much success against it.

Brett Baty OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings)

Every prop I am writing up today comes from a ballpark with favorable weather, so I will save a sentence in every blurb by bypassing that going forward. We go to Cincinnati next, where we hardly need wind to like home runs anyway, for my next selection.

It's not often you pick a 9-hole hitter for a home run prop, but Baty has flexed some solid power this season, swatting 15 home runs with 13 of those coming against righties.

Brett Baty launches his 12th home run of the season! pic.twitter.com/NeROtAqscx

— SNY (@SNYtv) August 10, 2025

We have to be very selective with which lefty we use against Brady Singer. His splits are poor against lefties, but his sinker often gets guys to pound it into the ground, so even though they may hit it hard (like Juan Soto has hit Singer to a 100+ exit velocity in nearly every at-bat), they also may not be able to lift the pitch for a home run.

So bet Juan Soto for a hit or for total bases, but Baty is my HR call as his batted ball numbers vs. the slider and sinker suggest that he could elevate the pitch and drive one into the seats.

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Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings)

Another small ballpark with good hitting conditions in Tampa, so let's roll with the Rays' best left-handed power bat in Lowe. I gave Junior Caminero a hard look, too, but ultimately Lowe's profile against Tanner Bibee tipped the scales as he matches up so well against Bibee's main pitches.

Bibee has been very home run prone lately, allowing 11 home runs over his last ten starts.

He will have to be very careful with Lowe today, as a poorly placed four-seamer, changeup, or breaking ball over the plate could end up traveling a long distance!

Matt Olsen OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 DraftKings)

We go to Atlanta next, where we have another RHP who has been struggling with giving up long balls lately - Bryce Miller. The Seattle youngster has not looked sharp since returning to the rotation in August. In his first three starts since being activated, he's allowed six home runs.

Miller goes heavy on four-seamers to left-handed hitters, and Matt Olsen is the guy who pops for me when I break down the batted ball data. Olsen is just 1-6 against Miller in his career, with two strikeouts. But all four of the balls he made contact with had an exit velocity over 100 mph, two of them at 110 mph.

Olsen also has a .500 SLG against four-seamers and has a massive .750 ISO against Miller's knuckle-curve. It Miller continues to struggle with fastball location, I think Olsen deposits one over the right field fence tonight.

Shea Langeliers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 DraftKings)

One final game that I have circled tonight is the Athletics in Los Angeles. We have a couple pitchers with strong traditional splits on the mound, but unlike the Angels (who have no good lefties to use against J.T. Ginn) we do have a few lefty-mashers to deploy against Angels' starter Yusei Kikuchi.

Kikuchi has allowed 21 home runs to righties this season and a 12.6% barrel%. We have to choose from three big boppers from the right side of the plate, and it's Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, and Colby Thomas.

There's too much swing and miss in Thomas's bat, though he has taken Kikuchi deep before. And while I love Rooker against just about any lefty, it's Langaliers who really show up big here.

Catcher Home Runs Last Three Seasons:

1. Cal Raleigh
2. Shea Langeliers#Athletics | #Mariners pic.twitter.com/e0OeoCIJKF

— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) August 27, 2025

The Athletics backstop has one hit (a home run) in six at-bats against Kikuchi, but has barreled him up twice and only struck out once. He's made hard or medium contact all five times that he's made contact against Kikuchi.

His numbers against lefties this season are amazing as he's hit .352 with a .681 SLG% and a 13.5% barrel%.

Langaliers can sit fastball against Kikuchi, but he also has solid numbers against his slider, too. I'm backing the lefty-mashing catcher to get into one tonight and bring us home in the nightcap!

Let's get it tonight, folks! Thanks for reading, and good luck if you choose to tail these bets!

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