MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/14/2025)

August 14, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/14/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Kyle Stowers, Marcell Ozuna, Kerry Carpenter, and Corbin Carroll.

We have another small MLB slate on Thursday, which becomes the new norm toward the end of the season. We have seven games on today's slate, which is better than what we have seen the last two Thursdays. We have some good hitting weather on the East Coast, a matchup in Coors Field, and some pitchers who are prone to the long ball to give us an excellent opportunity to cash some home runs bets.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs on today, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, August 14, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/14/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, August 14:

• Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins
• Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
• Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
• Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

Kyle Stowers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings)

We start our home run journey today with the Miami Marlins taking on the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Tanner Bibee will be on the bump for the Guardians, and he will be our primary target.

Bibee on the season has allowed a 4.11 xFIP, 1.51 HR/9, and a 39.6% FB. He has been more susceptible to the long ball over his last handful of starts, and it is a trend that I want to buy into. Bibee has allowed a 2.05 HR/9, 41.8% FB, and a 35.8% Hard Hit over the last 30 days.

Left-handed hitters have gotten to Bibee this year in a big way. He is allowing a .257 AVG, .196 ISO, .453 SLG, and 12 home runs against the split in 2025. Over his last 30 days, he has allowed a 1.5 HR/9, .400 SLG, and a 27.8% Hard Hit to lefties.

Kyle Stowers is the best left-handed bat in this lineup for power, and he has lots of it. This season, Stowers is slashing .290/.368/.590 with a .958 OPS. He has 24 home runs against right-handed pitching.

July was a BIG month for Kyle Stowers in his breakout season! 🔥

He's your NL Player of the Month presented by @Chevrolet. pic.twitter.com/6sr6xVBcqA

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) August 4, 2025

Look for Stowers to pull something out of Progressive to get us started on Thursday night.

Marcell Ozuna OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings)

Our second home run bet of the night comes in a game in which the Atlanta Braves will square off against the New York Mets. We have good hitting weather in Queens tonight at Citi Field, as it will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Kodai Senga will get the rock for the Mets, and he has struggled as of late. Senga has a 6.00 xFIP, 2.76 HR/9, 40.0% FB, and a 44.0% Hard Hit over his last 30 days. He is not someone I tend to attack with the long ball, but these trends are screaming at me.

Right-handed bats have been the culprit for Senga recently. Righties are slashing .258/.410/.645 against him over his last 30 days. He has allowed three home runs, 40.0% Hard Hit, 40.0% FB, and a 52.0% Pull to the split during that span.

Marcell Ozuna is red hot for this Braves team. He is slashing .222/.353/.667 with a 1.020 OPS over his last 34 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. He has four home runs during that span.

Marcell Ozuna has 3 HR and 7 RBI over his last 2 games 💪 pic.twitter.com/suHlOaDvDl

— MLB (@MLB) August 10, 2025

Senga has been susceptible to his cutter against right-handed pitching over the last few starts. On the season, he has allowed a .482 SLG and three home runs against it. His four-seamer has a .573 SLG and four home runs against it. Ozuna has a .331 wOBA, .197 ISO, and four home runs against the four-seamer and a .657 wOBA, .818 ISO, and three home runs against the cutter.

Ozuna is leaving the yard tonight.

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Kerry Carpenter OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+250 FanDuel)

The Tigers will face the Twins and Bailey Ober at Target Field in Minneapolis tonight. The wind is blowing slightly tonight, and the temperatures will be in the upper 70s, so if anything, there is a slight bump to pitching. Instead of the weather, I am buying into the matchup here in this spot.

Ober on the season has a 4.87 xFIP, 2.01 HR/9, 51.3% FB, and a 30.6% Hard Hit. Over his last two starts since his return from the IL, he has allowed a 1.64 HR/9 and a 47.1% FB.

Ober has struggled with the long ball to left-handed hitters this season in particular. Ober has a .283 AVG, .219 ISO, .502 SLG, and 14 home runs to the split this season. Over his last two starts, he has allowed two home runs to lefties with a .429 SLG, 52.2% FB, and a 26.1% Hard Hit.

Kerry Carpenter is slashing .275/.305/.565 with an .870 OPS and 19 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. He has been red hot against the split as of late. He is slashing .333/.344/.967 with a 1.310 OPS and five home runs over his last 32 plate appearances.

Kerry Carpenter has established a new career high with 21 homers this year.

His .598 SLG vs. right-handers since the start of 2024 ranks 3rd in baseball (min. 500 PA vs. RHP), behind only Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. pic.twitter.com/xeRWIujz2B

— Tigers PR (@DetroitTigersPR) August 11, 2025

Ober has allowed a ton of power to two pitches, especially against left-handed hitters. His four-seamer has a .439 SLG and six home runs, and his changeup has allowed a .375 SLG and five home runs. Carpenter has a .345 wOBA, .337 ISO, and eight home runs against the four-seam fastball and a .358 wOBA, .269 ISO, and four home runs against the changeup.

There is a pinch hit risk here for Carpenter, but I love the spot against Ober.

Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+230 FanDuel)

Our last game of the day takes place in Coors Field between the Diamondbacks and the Rockies. As we all know, Denver, Colorado, is the Mile High City, and the ball flies out of this park. It will be in the 80s tonight with a 15 mph wind blowing out. This is elite hitting weather.

Bradley Blalock will toe the rubber for the Rockies. Blalock has a 5.15 xFIP, 1.87 HR/9, 35.2% FB, and a 34.6% Hard Hit this season. Over his last two starts, he has a 6.17 xFIP, 2.61 HR/9, 40.5% FB, and a 37.8% Hard Hit.

Blalock has struggled with left-handed hitters in 2025. He has allowed a .346 AVG, .218 ISO, .564 SLG, and six home runs this season against the split. Over his last two starts, he has allowed a .304 AVG, 3.2 HR/9, .696 SLG, and two home runs.

Corbin Carroll is crushing right-handed pitching in 2025. He is slashing .252/.322/.599 with a .921 OPS and 21 home runs. Over his last 33 plate appearances, Carroll is slashing .207/.273/.552 with a .824 OPS.

Corbin Carroll with his career-best 26th home run of the season and his 4th in his last 5 games!

He leads all NL outfielders with a .563 SLG 👀 pic.twitter.com/ehnyDQP0bz

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) August 12, 2025

Blalock has allowed power to lefties on two pitches. His four-seamer has allowed a .595 SLG and five home runs, and his split-finger has allowed a .556 SLG and two home runs this season. Carroll has a .411 wOBA, .381 ISO, and nine home runs against the four-seamer and a .395 wOBA, .458 ISO, and three home runs against the split-finger.

I am hoping Carroll brings us home for a perfect four-for-four card on this Thursday.

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