MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (6/24/2025)

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/24/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Ernie Clement, Nolan Arenado, and Byron Buxton.

We have a full slate of games for Tuesday's MLB action. We have some warm temperatures on the East Coast again, which will provide us with some opportunities to go home run hunting. Outside of Coors Field and Great American Ball Park, there are no extreme hitting spots on today's slate, so most of our bets are solely based on matchup, just the way I like it.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run hits.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, June 24, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/24/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, June 24:

• Ernie Clement, Toronto Blue Jays
• Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
• Rob Refsnyder, Boston Red Sox
• Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

Ernie Clement OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+750 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Our first home run bet of the day comes from a game taking place at Progressive Field in Cleveland between the Blue Jays and the Guardians. It will be in the mid-80s at first pitch, with a slight breeze blowing out, giving this a slight advantage to bats.

The Guardians will send southpaw Logan Allen to the bump tonight. Allen has struggled this season with a 4.96 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, 1.09 HR/9, and a 42.5% FB He has a 4.98 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, 2.05 HR/9, and a 43.5% FB over his last four starts. Allen has allowed eight home runs this season.

The former Cleveland Guardian has been on a tear this season, especially against left-handed pitching. Clement has a .505 wOBA, .289 ISO, 41.2% FB, and a 31.0% Hard Hit this season against lefties. Clement has a .626 wOBA, .371 ISO, and a 1.457 OPS against left-hand pitching over his last 35 plate appearances.

Ernie Clement over the last 30 days:

.377/.394/.547
3 HR
.942 OPS
168 wRC+
1.7 fWAR (5th in MLB)
7.3 K% (4th lowest in MLB)

He's tied for the 4th-highest fWAR among 3rd baseman this season! pic.twitter.com/Q9SjMkmEof

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) June 23, 2025

Clement will get a matchup in a familiar spot, with a great matchup and good hitting conditions at this number. I am willing to take some shots.

Nolan Arenado OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

This may be the first time I have written up Nolan Arenado all season in any piece on the site, but here we are. Arenado and the Cardinals will square off against Jameson Taillon in St. Louis. It will be mid-90s at the first pitch, with wind blowing from right-center field. This is a slight bump to bats, but with the park factor, it is a neutral spot.

Taillon leads today’s games with 18 long balls given up this season. He has given up ten of those to right-hand hitters. Taillon has a .357 wOBA, .533 SLG, 2.4 HR/9, 49.2% FB, and a 28.6% Hard Hit. He has a 4.05 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 1.87 HR/9, and a 44.2% FB this season. I usually like attacking Taillon with lefties, but the splits this season are a big enough sample size, I am going to buy into.

Enter, Nolan Arenado. Arenado has had a good season for the Redbirds. He has a .298 wOBA, .173 ISO, 45.3% FB, and a 26.2%  Hard Hit this season. He is red hot at the moment with a .392 wOBA, .313 ISO, and a .917 OPS over his last 34 plate appearances.

Taillon has thrown three pitches primarily to right-handed hitters. His four seamer, sweeper, and cutter. His four-seamer has allowed six home runs and a .529 xSLG, his sweeper has allowed five home runs and a .439 xSLG, and his cutter has allowed five home runs and a .755 xSLG. Below is how Arenado performs against these pitches.

• Four-seamer: .327 wOBA, .279 ISO, 39.1% FB
• Sweeper: .248 wOBA, .143 ISO, 25.0% FB
• Cutter: .417 wOBA, .308 ISO, 30.8% FB

I love Arenado's chances of getting a hold of one tonight.

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Rob Refsnyder OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I am not usually one to be writing up platoon players for home run bets, but the pinch hit risk is baked into the odds to a degree. The Red Sox will travel to Los Angeles for a matchup with Tyler Anderson and the Angels.

Anderson has allowed 15 home runs this season. Eight of those have come to right-handed hitters and seven of those to lefties. With Devers gone, there are no lefties I want to attack Anderson with, so we are going with the best right-handed bat against southpaws this season with Rob Refsnyder.

Anderson has allowed a 5.01 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, 1.67 HR/9, and a 49.0% FB this season. Over his last 30 days, he has a 4.57 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, 1.73 HR/9, and a 41.8% FB. Anderson is bound to give up a home run or two tonight, but who will be the one to hit it?

My best bet is Rob Refsnyder. Refsnyder has a .428 wOBA, .296 ISO, 39.0% FB, and a 43.9% Hard Hit against left-hand pitching this season. Over his last 36 plate appearances against the split, he has a .417 wOBA and a .185 ISO.

Anderson has been prone to the home run from two of his pitches, primarily against lefties, which are his four-seamer and his changeup. His four-seamer has allowed six home runs and a .567 xSLG, and the changeup has allowed six home runs as well with a .373 xSLG. Below is how Refnsyder performs against those pitches.

• Four-seamer: .394 wOBA, .250 ISO, 23.8% FB
• Changeup: .426 wOBA, .360 ISO, 29.4% FB

I like this spot enough with these odds to take a shot on Refsnyder to go yard tonight.

Byron Buxton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Our last and final bet of the night comes from a game being played at Target Field in Minnesota between the Mariners and Twins. The Mariners will send Luis Castillo to the mound, who has shown some severe signs of regression.

Over his last 30 days, Castillo has been rocked. He has a 3.90 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 2.17 HR/9, and a 43.4% FB. He has allowed seven home runs during that span. Castillo has struggled with right-hand hitters during that period as well. He has a .322 wOBA, .493 SLG, 2.1 HR/9, and a 38.8% FB against righties.

The best right-handed bat on this team is an obvious choice as long as he is healthy, and that is Byron Buxton. Buxton has been elite this season with a .379 wOBA, .276 ISO, 45.3% FB, and a 39.1% Hard Hit. Buxton has a .739 wOBA, .773 ISO, and a 1.865 OPS over his last 27 plate appearances against right-hand pitching.

After dealing with so many injuries throughout his career, it’s hard to not be happy for Byron Buxton!

In 2025:

.285 / 17 HR / 47 RBI / 13 SB

I think he could be a name mentioned at the trade deadline👀
pic.twitter.com/O3ATV4Nhp9

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) June 22, 2025

One of the main reasons I love Buxton so much here is because of how he handles the pitch mix from Castillo. Castillo throws his four-seamer, slider, and sinker primarily to righties. His four-seamer has allowed five home runs against it and has a .433 xSLG, the slider has three home runs and a .509 xSLG, and his sinker has allowed two home runs with a .495 xSLG against it. Buxton destroys these pitches this season, as shown below.

• Four-seamer: .400 wOBA, .280 ISO, 34.3% FB
• Slider: .426 wOBA, .261 ISO, 20.0% FB
• Sinker: .355 wOBA, .174 ISO, 38.9% FB

I usually don't bet Buxton unless he's facing a righty, but tonight is an exception because of the elite matchup he has.

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